Aberdeenshire: wards that bucked the trend
Aberdeenshire: in 2022, 44 ward results beat the expected swing and 40 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside (+17.9 pts actual vs +2.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside | Independent | +17.9 pts | +2.4 pts | +15.5 pts |
| 2022 | Fraserburgh and District | Conservative | +8.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2022 | Peterhead North and Rattray | Independent | +15.7 pts | +2.4 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2022 | Fraserburgh and District | SNP | -9.8 pts | +2.5 pts | -12.3 pts |
| 2022 | Troup | Conservative | +5.4 pts | -6.5 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2022 | East Garioch | SNP | +13.7 pts | +2.5 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2022 | Peterhead South and Cruden | Conservative | +4.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2022 | Mearns | Independent | +12.5 pts | +2.4 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Formartine | Independent | -7.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2022 | Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside | SNP | -7.0 pts | +2.5 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2022 | East Garioch | Liberal Democrats | -9.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2022 | Central Buchan | Independent | -6.5 pts | +2.4 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2022 | West Garioch | Conservative | -15.4 pts | -6.5 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2022 | Banff and District | Liberal Democrats | -8.7 pts | +0.1 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2022 | Turriff and District | Conservative | +1.7 pts | -6.5 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Deeside | Labour | +8.5 pts | +0.4 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Peterhead North and Rattray | Conservative | -14.6 pts | -6.5 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2022 | Peterhead South and Cruden | SNP | +10.0 pts | +2.5 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2022 | Peterhead North and Rattray | SNP | -4.9 pts | +2.5 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2022 | Stonehaven and Lower Deeside | Conservative | -13.7 pts | -6.5 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2022 | Peterhead South and Cruden | Liberal Democrats | +7.1 pts | +0.1 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2022 | North Kincardine | SNP | +9.1 pts | +2.5 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2022 | North Kincardine | Liberal Democrats | -6.6 pts | +0.1 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2022 | Mearns | Conservative | -12.6 pts | -6.5 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2022 | Turriff and District | SNP | +8.5 pts | +2.5 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2022 | Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford | SNP | +8.4 pts | +2.5 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2022 | Central Buchan | SNP | -3.4 pts | +2.5 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2022 | Banchory and Mid Deeside | Labour | +6.1 pts | +0.4 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2022 | Stonehaven and Lower Deeside | Liberal Democrats | +5.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Formartine | SNP | +7.9 pts | +2.5 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Formartine | Liberal Democrats | +5.4 pts | +0.1 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Formartine | Conservative | -1.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Inverurie and District | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | +0.1 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Banff and District | SNP | +6.7 pts | +2.5 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2022 | Troup | Liberal Democrats | +4.3 pts | +0.1 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford | Conservative | -10.7 pts | -6.5 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Mearns | Liberal Democrats | -4.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Inverurie and District | Conservative | -10.3 pts | -6.5 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford | Liberal Democrats | -3.6 pts | +0.1 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Banchory and Mid Deeside | Conservative | -10.1 pts | -6.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Turriff and District | Liberal Democrats | +3.7 pts | +0.1 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Deeside | Liberal Democrats | -3.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2022 | East Garioch | Labour | +3.7 pts | +0.4 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Westhill and District | Liberal Democrats | +3.4 pts | +0.1 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Deeside | Conservative | -9.7 pts | -6.5 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2022 | West Garioch | SNP | -0.6 pts | +2.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -6.5 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2022 | West Garioch | Liberal Democrats | -2.9 pts | +0.1 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2022 | North Kincardine | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Westhill and District | Labour | +3.2 pts | +0.4 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Troup | SNP | +5.2 pts | +2.5 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2022 | West Garioch | Labour | +3.0 pts | +0.4 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Ellon and District | SNP | -0.2 pts | +2.5 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Central Buchan | Liberal Democrats | +2.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Central Buchan | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2022 | West Garioch | Green | -2.9 pts | -0.4 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | East Garioch | Conservative | -4.1 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Stonehaven and Lower Deeside | Independent | +4.8 pts | +2.4 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Deeside | SNP | +0.2 pts | +2.5 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford | Labour | +2.6 pts | +0.4 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Ellon and District | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | +0.1 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2022 | Fraserburgh and District | Independent | +0.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Deeside | Green | +1.6 pts | -0.4 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Mearns | SNP | +0.5 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Banff and District | Conservative | -8.4 pts | -6.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Banff and District | Independent | +0.8 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Ellon and District | Labour | -1.2 pts | +0.4 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Mearns | Labour | +1.9 pts | +0.4 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Westhill and District | Conservative | -7.9 pts | -6.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Peterhead North and Rattray | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Westhill and District | SNP | +1.1 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Banchory and Mid Deeside | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Ellon and District | Conservative | -5.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Stonehaven and Lower Deeside | SNP | +3.5 pts | +2.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Inverurie and District | SNP | +3.4 pts | +2.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Deeside | Independent | +3.2 pts | +2.4 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Banchory and Mid Deeside | SNP | +2.1 pts | +2.5 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside | Labour | 0.0 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Mearns | Green | -0.8 pts | -0.4 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Fraserburgh and District | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Stonehaven and Lower Deeside | Green | -0.7 pts | -0.4 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Inverurie and District | Independent | +2.2 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Stonehaven and Lower Deeside | Labour | +0.5 pts | +0.4 pts | +0.2 pts |