Psephology.AI

    Angus: wards that bucked the trend

    Angus: in 2022, 19 ward results beat the expected swing and 17 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Brechin and Edzell (-15.8 pts actual vs -6.0 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Angus: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2022Brechin and EdzellIndependent-15.8 pts-6.0 pts-9.8 pts
    2022Kirriemuir and DeanConservative-16.5 pts-7.2 pts-9.3 pts
    2022Brechin and EdzellConservative+1.9 pts-7.2 pts+9.1 pts
    2022Forfar and DistrictIndependent-13.2 pts-6.0 pts-7.2 pts
    2022Carnoustie and DistrictConservative-0.4 pts-7.2 pts+6.8 pts
    2022Arbroath East and LunanIndependent-0.2 pts-6.0 pts+5.8 pts
    2022Monifieth and SidlawConservative-12.6 pts-7.2 pts-5.4 pts
    2022Forfar and DistrictConservative-2.8 pts-7.2 pts+4.4 pts
    2022Montrose and DistrictIndependent-1.6 pts-6.0 pts+4.4 pts
    2022Carnoustie and DistrictIndependent-10.4 pts-6.0 pts-4.3 pts
    2022Arbroath West, Letham and FriockheimConservative-11.0 pts-7.2 pts-3.8 pts
    2022Forfar and DistrictSNP+10.3 pts+7.1 pts+3.1 pts
    2022Carnoustie and DistrictLiberal Democrats+3.1 pts+0.5 pts+2.6 pts
    2022Montrose and DistrictSNP+4.6 pts+7.1 pts-2.6 pts
    2022Monifieth and SidlawSNP+4.6 pts+7.1 pts-2.6 pts
    2022Brechin and EdzellLiberal Democrats+2.9 pts+0.5 pts+2.4 pts
    2022Monifieth and SidlawLabour+3.8 pts+1.5 pts+2.3 pts
    2022Carnoustie and DistrictSNP+9.1 pts+7.1 pts+2.0 pts
    2022Arbroath East and LunanLabour-0.4 pts+1.5 pts-1.9 pts
    2022Montrose and DistrictConservative-5.6 pts-7.2 pts+1.6 pts
    2022Brechin and EdzellSNP+8.7 pts+7.1 pts+1.5 pts
    2022Montrose and DistrictLabour-0.0 pts+1.5 pts-1.5 pts
    2022Arbroath West, Letham and FriockheimLiberal Democrats-0.9 pts+0.5 pts-1.4 pts
    2022Montrose and DistrictLiberal Democrats-0.9 pts+0.5 pts-1.3 pts
    2022Kirriemuir and DeanSNP+5.9 pts+7.1 pts-1.3 pts
    2022Monifieth and SidlawLiberal Democrats-0.7 pts+0.5 pts-1.2 pts
    2022Arbroath West, Letham and FriockheimIndependent-7.0 pts-6.0 pts-1.0 pts
    2022Arbroath East and LunanSNP+6.2 pts+7.1 pts-1.0 pts
    2022Forfar and DistrictLiberal Democrats-0.4 pts+0.5 pts-0.9 pts
    2022Brechin and EdzellLabour+2.4 pts+1.5 pts+0.9 pts
    2022Kirriemuir and DeanLabour+2.3 pts+1.5 pts+0.8 pts
    2022Arbroath East and LunanLiberal Democrats+1.2 pts+0.5 pts+0.8 pts
    2022Arbroath West, Letham and FriockheimSNP+7.8 pts+7.1 pts+0.7 pts
    2022Arbroath East and LunanConservative-6.8 pts-7.2 pts+0.4 pts
    2022Forfar and DistrictLabour+1.9 pts+1.5 pts+0.4 pts
    2022Kirriemuir and DeanLiberal Democrats+0.6 pts+0.5 pts+0.1 pts