Argyll and Bute: wards that bucked the trend
Argyll and Bute: in 2022, 20 ward results beat the expected swing and 22 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Kintyre and the Islands (+13.5 pts actual vs -6.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kintyre and the Islands | Independent | +13.5 pts | -6.2 pts | +19.6 pts |
| 2022 | Helensburgh Central | Liberal Democrats | -13.5 pts | -1.0 pts | -12.5 pts |
| 2022 | Isle of Bute | SNP | -8.1 pts | +3.8 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2022 | Helensburgh and Lomond South | Conservative | +8.8 pts | -2.1 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2022 | Dunoon | Independent | -16.1 pts | -6.2 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2022 | Kintyre and the Islands | Conservative | -11.7 pts | -2.1 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2022 | Dunoon | Liberal Democrats | +7.8 pts | -1.0 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2022 | Oban South and the Isles | Independent | -14.6 pts | -6.2 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2022 | Oban North and Lorn | Independent | -14.3 pts | -6.2 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Helensburgh Central | Conservative | -9.2 pts | -2.1 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Argyll | Independent | -0.7 pts | -6.2 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2022 | Oban South and the Isles | SNP | +8.9 pts | +3.8 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2022 | Helensburgh Central | SNP | -1.3 pts | +3.8 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Cowal | Liberal Democrats | -5.9 pts | -1.0 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Helensburgh and Lomond South | SNP | +8.2 pts | +3.8 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2022 | Lomond North | Labour | +6.1 pts | +2.4 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Oban North and Lorn | Conservative | +1.6 pts | -2.1 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Oban South and the Isles | Labour | -1.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Cowal | SNP | +7.3 pts | +3.8 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2022 | Dunoon | SNP | +7.2 pts | +3.8 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Helensburgh and Lomond South | Liberal Democrats | -4.3 pts | -1.0 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Kintyre and the Islands | Labour | -0.7 pts | +2.4 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Isle of Bute | Independent | -3.2 pts | -6.2 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Oban North and Lorn | SNP | +1.0 pts | +3.8 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Kintyre and the Islands | SNP | +6.4 pts | +3.8 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Isle of Bute | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Dunoon | Labour | -0.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Argyll | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -2.1 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Oban South and the Isles | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2022 | Helensburgh Central | Independent | -4.2 pts | -6.2 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Cowal | Conservative | -0.1 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Oban South and the Isles | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Dunoon | Conservative | -0.3 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Kintyre and the Islands | Liberal Democrats | -2.7 pts | -1.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Argyll | Labour | +0.9 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Lomond North | Conservative | -3.0 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Lomond North | SNP | +4.1 pts | +3.8 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Argyll | SNP | +3.5 pts | +3.8 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Cowal | Independent | -6.0 pts | -6.2 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Cowal | Labour | +2.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Lomond North | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -1.0 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Lomond North | Independent | -6.1 pts | -6.2 pts | +0.0 pts |