Psephology.AI

    Cumbria: wards that bucked the trend

    Cumbria: in 2017, 98 ward results beat the expected swing and 136 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Eden Lakes (+56.8 pts actual vs +12.9 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Cumbria: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2017Eden LakesConservative+56.8 pts+12.9 pts+43.9 pts
    2017KeswickLabour+39.1 pts-1.4 pts+40.5 pts
    2017HowgateConservative+53.0 pts+12.9 pts+40.1 pts
    2017Maryport NorthUK Independence Party (UKIP)+27.8 pts-9.7 pts+37.5 pts
    2017Penrith RuralConservative-24.3 pts+12.9 pts-37.2 pts
    2017Cockermouth NorthLiberal Democrats+34.2 pts-1.6 pts+35.9 pts
    2017AspatriaLiberal Democrats+33.5 pts-1.6 pts+35.1 pts
    2017SeatonConservative+42.0 pts+12.9 pts+29.1 pts
    2017Maryport SouthLabour+27.6 pts-1.4 pts+29.0 pts
    2017Cockermouth NorthConservative-15.2 pts+12.9 pts-28.1 pts
    2017Alston and East FellsideLabour+24.7 pts-1.4 pts+26.1 pts
    2017GosforthConservative-12.8 pts+12.9 pts-25.6 pts
    2017Cleator Moor WestLabour-24.9 pts-1.4 pts-23.5 pts
    2017ApplebyLiberal Democrats+19.2 pts-1.6 pts+20.8 pts
    2017BranstyConservative-6.9 pts+12.9 pts-19.7 pts
    2017Ulverston EastConservative-6.1 pts+12.9 pts-19.0 pts
    2017Dalton NorthConservative+31.2 pts+12.9 pts+18.3 pts
    2017Belle VueLabour-19.7 pts-1.4 pts-18.3 pts
    2017SeatonLabour+16.5 pts-1.4 pts+17.9 pts
    2017WindermereConservative+29.2 pts+12.9 pts+16.4 pts
    2017WindermereLiberal Democrats-18.0 pts-1.6 pts-16.3 pts
    2017Solway CoastConservative-3.2 pts+12.9 pts-16.0 pts
    2017ApplebyConservative-3.1 pts+12.9 pts-16.0 pts
    2017WigtonLabour+14.6 pts-1.4 pts+16.0 pts
    2017Sedbergh and Kirkby LonsdaleConservative-3.1 pts+12.9 pts-16.0 pts
    2017Corby and HaytonConservative-2.8 pts+12.9 pts-15.7 pts
    2017Dalton NorthLabour-17.1 pts-1.4 pts-15.7 pts
    2017Moss Bay and MoorcloseLabour-16.8 pts-1.4 pts-15.4 pts
    2017EgremontConservative+28.2 pts+12.9 pts+15.3 pts
    2017St Michael'sLabour+13.5 pts-1.4 pts+14.9 pts
    2017Upper KentLiberal Democrats-16.5 pts-1.6 pts-14.9 pts
    2017Ulverston EastLabour+13.4 pts-1.4 pts+14.8 pts
    2017Dearham and BroughtonConservative+27.1 pts+12.9 pts+14.2 pts
    2017LongtownConservative+26.9 pts+12.9 pts+14.0 pts
    2017MillomConservative+26.9 pts+12.9 pts+14.0 pts
    2017Kendal CastleLiberal Democrats-15.0 pts-1.6 pts-13.3 pts
    2017LakesConservative-0.3 pts+12.9 pts-13.2 pts
    2017Kendal SouthLiberal Democrats-14.8 pts-1.6 pts-13.2 pts
    2017Houghton and IrthingtonUK Independence Party (UKIP)-22.8 pts-9.7 pts-13.1 pts
    2017RisedaleConservative+26.0 pts+12.9 pts+13.1 pts
    2017WetheralConservative+25.9 pts+12.9 pts+13.0 pts
    2017CartmelLiberal Democrats-14.3 pts-1.6 pts-12.7 pts
    2017OrmsgillUK Independence Party (UKIP)+2.6 pts-9.7 pts+12.3 pts
    2017Newbarns and ParksideConservative+25.0 pts+12.9 pts+12.1 pts
    2017Dalton SouthConservative+24.8 pts+12.9 pts+11.9 pts
    2017AspatriaConservative+1.1 pts+12.9 pts-11.8 pts
    2017BotcherbyIndependent+11.3 pts-0.1 pts+11.5 pts
    2017Cockermouth SouthLiberal Democrats-13.0 pts-1.6 pts-11.4 pts
    2017YewdaleUK Independence Party (UKIP)-21.1 pts-9.7 pts-11.4 pts
    2017BotcherbyConservative+1.5 pts+12.9 pts-11.3 pts
    2017Penrith NorthConservative+24.1 pts+12.9 pts+11.3 pts
    2017Cockermouth NorthLabour-12.6 pts-1.4 pts-11.2 pts
    2017GrangeLiberal Democrats-12.5 pts-1.6 pts-10.9 pts
    2017Old BarrowUK Independence Party (UKIP)-20.5 pts-9.7 pts-10.8 pts
    2017BelahConservative+2.1 pts+12.9 pts-10.7 pts
    2017CastleLiberal Democrats-12.3 pts-1.6 pts-10.7 pts
    2017GrangeConservative+2.3 pts+12.9 pts-10.6 pts
    2017St John's and Great CliftonLabour+9.2 pts-1.4 pts+10.6 pts
    2017Alston and East FellsideGreen-8.7 pts+1.8 pts-10.5 pts
    2017CastleConservative+23.1 pts+12.9 pts+10.3 pts
    2017Alston and East FellsideConservative+2.7 pts+12.9 pts-10.2 pts
    2017LongtownUK Independence Party (UKIP)-19.8 pts-9.7 pts-10.1 pts
    2017Bothel and WharrelsGreen+11.8 pts+1.8 pts+10.1 pts
    2017BranstyLabour-11.2 pts-1.4 pts-9.8 pts
    2017Alston and East FellsideIndependent-10.0 pts-0.1 pts-9.8 pts
    2017Cockermouth SouthConservative+22.6 pts+12.9 pts+9.8 pts
    2017Lyth ValleyConservative+3.1 pts+12.9 pts-9.7 pts
    2017UpperbyLabour-11.0 pts-1.4 pts-9.6 pts
    2017Dalton SouthLabour-10.9 pts-1.4 pts-9.5 pts
    2017Greystoke and HesketUK Independence Party (UKIP)-19.2 pts-9.7 pts-9.5 pts
    2017Kent EstuaryLiberal Democrats-11.1 pts-1.6 pts-9.5 pts
    2017Dalston and BurghLiberal Democrats+7.6 pts-1.6 pts+9.3 pts
    2017Kendal Strickland and FellLabour-10.4 pts-1.4 pts-9.0 pts
    2017HarringtonLabour+7.5 pts-1.4 pts+8.9 pts
    2017Corby and HaytonIndependent-8.9 pts-0.1 pts-8.8 pts
    2017YewdaleLabour-10.1 pts-1.4 pts-8.7 pts
    2017Cockermouth SouthLabour+7.3 pts-1.4 pts+8.6 pts
    2017ThursbyConservative+4.3 pts+12.9 pts-8.6 pts
    2017Greystoke and HesketConservative+4.4 pts+12.9 pts-8.4 pts
    2017RoosecoteConservative+21.3 pts+12.9 pts+8.4 pts
    2017GosforthLabour-9.8 pts-1.4 pts-8.4 pts
    2017Old BarrowLabour-9.7 pts-1.4 pts-8.3 pts
    2017Moss Bay and MoorcloseIndependent+8.2 pts-0.1 pts+8.3 pts
    2017Bothel and WharrelsConservative+4.6 pts+12.9 pts-8.2 pts
    2017Cockermouth NorthGreen-6.5 pts+1.8 pts-8.2 pts
    2017Walney SouthConservative+21.1 pts+12.9 pts+8.2 pts
    2017YewdaleConservative+21.1 pts+12.9 pts+8.2 pts
    2017RoosecoteLabour-9.6 pts-1.4 pts-8.2 pts
    2017MortonConservative+20.9 pts+12.9 pts+8.0 pts
    2017Harraby NorthConservative+20.8 pts+12.9 pts+7.9 pts
    2017Penrith WestIndependent+7.7 pts-0.1 pts+7.9 pts
    2017HawcoatConservative+20.4 pts+12.9 pts+7.6 pts
    2017Hillcrest and HensinghamConservative+5.3 pts+12.9 pts-7.5 pts
    2017Kendal NetherConservative+5.7 pts+12.9 pts-7.2 pts
    2017WetheralLiberal Democrats+5.4 pts-1.6 pts+7.0 pts
    2017Kirkby StephenLiberal Democrats-8.5 pts-1.6 pts-6.9 pts
    2017Greystoke and HesketLiberal Democrats-8.3 pts-1.6 pts-6.7 pts
    2017Walney NorthLabour-8.1 pts-1.4 pts-6.7 pts
    2017Ulverston EastGreen-4.8 pts+1.8 pts-6.6 pts
    2017Solway CoastIndependent+6.4 pts-0.1 pts+6.6 pts
    2017Newbarns and ParksideUK Independence Party (UKIP)-16.2 pts-9.7 pts-6.6 pts
    2017MirehouseConservative+19.1 pts+12.9 pts+6.2 pts
    2017Kells and SandwithLabour-7.6 pts-1.4 pts-6.2 pts
    2017Penrith EastLiberal Democrats+4.6 pts-1.6 pts+6.2 pts
    2017Maryport NorthLabour+4.8 pts-1.4 pts+6.2 pts
    2017HarringtonLiberal Democrats+4.5 pts-1.6 pts+6.2 pts
    2017KeswickGreen+7.7 pts+1.8 pts+6.0 pts
    2017Egremont North and St BeesConservative+7.1 pts+12.9 pts-5.8 pts
    2017Penrith RuralLiberal Democrats-7.4 pts-1.6 pts-5.8 pts
    2017Lower KentdaleLiberal Democrats-7.3 pts-1.6 pts-5.7 pts
    2017BramptonUK Independence Party (UKIP)-15.3 pts-9.7 pts-5.6 pts
    2017Low FurnessConservative+7.3 pts+12.9 pts-5.6 pts
    2017Low FurnessLabour-6.9 pts-1.4 pts-5.5 pts
    2017MirehouseLabour+4.0 pts-1.4 pts+5.4 pts
    2017Millom WithoutGreen-3.6 pts+1.8 pts-5.4 pts
    2017Moss Bay and MoorcloseConservative+7.5 pts+12.9 pts-5.3 pts
    2017AspatriaLabour-6.7 pts-1.4 pts-5.3 pts
    2017Cleator Moor East and FrizingtonConservative+18.0 pts+12.9 pts+5.1 pts
    2017Maryport SouthConservative+17.9 pts+12.9 pts+5.1 pts
    2017OrmsgillConservative+17.9 pts+12.9 pts+5.1 pts
    2017HarringtonIndependent-5.1 pts-0.1 pts-5.0 pts
    2017BramptonConservative+7.9 pts+12.9 pts-5.0 pts
    2017Dearham and BroughtonUK Independence Party (UKIP)-14.6 pts-9.7 pts-4.9 pts
    2017Penrith WestConservative+7.9 pts+12.9 pts-4.9 pts
    2017Denton HolmeLabour+3.5 pts-1.4 pts+4.9 pts
    2017HindpoolLabour-6.3 pts-1.4 pts-4.9 pts
    2017Kent EstuaryConservative+8.0 pts+12.9 pts-4.8 pts
    2017EgremontLabour+3.2 pts-1.4 pts+4.6 pts
    2017CurrockGreen-2.8 pts+1.8 pts-4.6 pts
    2017Penrith EastLabour-6.0 pts-1.4 pts-4.6 pts
    2017Millom WithoutLabour-5.9 pts-1.4 pts-4.5 pts
    2017St John's and Great CliftonIndependent-4.6 pts-0.1 pts-4.4 pts
    2017HowgateGreen-2.6 pts+1.8 pts-4.4 pts
    2017Penrith WestLabour+2.9 pts-1.4 pts+4.3 pts
    2017Kendal Strickland and FellLiberal Democrats+2.7 pts-1.6 pts+4.3 pts
    2017CastleLabour+2.9 pts-1.4 pts+4.3 pts
    2017Kendal NetherLabour-5.6 pts-1.4 pts-4.2 pts
    2017Harraby NorthLabour+2.8 pts-1.4 pts+4.2 pts
    2017BramptonLiberal Democrats+2.5 pts-1.6 pts+4.1 pts
    2017KeswickConservative+17.0 pts+12.9 pts+4.1 pts
    2017Hillcrest and HensinghamLabour-5.3 pts-1.4 pts-3.9 pts
    2017Harraby SouthConservative+16.8 pts+12.9 pts+3.9 pts
    2017Dearham and BroughtonLabour+2.5 pts-1.4 pts+3.9 pts
    2017HawcoatLabour+2.5 pts-1.4 pts+3.9 pts
    2017WetheralLabour-5.2 pts-1.4 pts-3.8 pts
    2017UpperbyGreen-2.1 pts+1.8 pts-3.8 pts
    2017Upper KentConservative+9.1 pts+12.9 pts-3.8 pts
    2017HindpoolUK Independence Party (UKIP)-6.0 pts-9.7 pts+3.7 pts
    2017Stanwix UrbanUK Independence Party (UKIP)-13.3 pts-9.7 pts-3.7 pts
    2017Cockermouth SouthGreen-1.8 pts+1.8 pts-3.5 pts
    2017Kendal HighgateLabour-4.9 pts-1.4 pts-3.5 pts
    2017Solway CoastGreen-1.7 pts+1.8 pts-3.5 pts
    2017Dalston and BurghConservative+9.4 pts+12.9 pts-3.5 pts
    2017Penrith NorthLiberal Democrats+1.8 pts-1.6 pts+3.4 pts
    2017Egremont North and St BeesLabour-4.8 pts-1.4 pts-3.4 pts
    2017OrmsgillLabour+2.0 pts-1.4 pts+3.4 pts
    2017Kendal HighgateLiberal Democrats-5.0 pts-1.6 pts-3.4 pts
    2017Millom WithoutConservative+9.5 pts+12.9 pts-3.4 pts
    2017Maryport SouthGreen+5.1 pts+1.8 pts+3.4 pts
    2017Kendal NetherLiberal Democrats-5.0 pts-1.6 pts-3.3 pts
    2017Stanwix UrbanConservative+16.2 pts+12.9 pts+3.3 pts
    2017CastleUK Independence Party (UKIP)-12.9 pts-9.7 pts-3.2 pts
    2017Dalton SouthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-12.8 pts-9.7 pts-3.1 pts
    2017St Michael'sConservative+16.0 pts+12.9 pts+3.1 pts
    2017CartmelConservative+9.8 pts+12.9 pts-3.1 pts
    2017Kendal HighgateConservative+15.9 pts+12.9 pts+3.1 pts
    2017Denton HolmeUK Independence Party (UKIP)-12.7 pts-9.7 pts-3.1 pts
    2017Denton HolmeGreen-1.3 pts+1.8 pts-3.0 pts
    2017ThursbyLabour+1.6 pts-1.4 pts+3.0 pts
    2017High FurnessLabour+1.5 pts-1.4 pts+2.9 pts
    2017CurrockLabour+1.5 pts-1.4 pts+2.9 pts
    2017RisedaleLabour+1.4 pts-1.4 pts+2.8 pts
    2017Lower KentdaleConservative+10.1 pts+12.9 pts-2.8 pts
    2017Ulverston WestConservative+15.7 pts+12.9 pts+2.8 pts
    2017UpperbyLiberal Democrats-4.3 pts-1.6 pts-2.6 pts
    2017Penrith WestLiberal Democrats-4.2 pts-1.6 pts-2.6 pts
    2017Penrith EastConservative+10.4 pts+12.9 pts-2.5 pts
    2017Denton HolmeConservative+15.3 pts+12.9 pts+2.4 pts
    2017WigtonGreen-0.7 pts+1.8 pts-2.4 pts
    2017LongtownLabour-3.7 pts-1.4 pts-2.4 pts
    2017Houghton and IrthingtonLabour-3.7 pts-1.4 pts-2.3 pts
    2017MortonLabour+0.9 pts-1.4 pts+2.3 pts
    2017CurrockConservative+15.2 pts+12.9 pts+2.3 pts
    2017Kendal Strickland and FellConservative+10.6 pts+12.9 pts-2.3 pts
    2017BelahLabour+0.8 pts-1.4 pts+2.2 pts
    2017Walney SouthLabour-3.6 pts-1.4 pts-2.2 pts
    2017Belle VueConservative+10.8 pts+12.9 pts-2.0 pts
    2017RoosecoteUK Independence Party (UKIP)-11.7 pts-9.7 pts-2.0 pts
    2017Kendal CastleLabour-3.4 pts-1.4 pts-2.0 pts
    2017Stanwix UrbanGreen+3.7 pts+1.8 pts+2.0 pts
    2017Kirkby StephenConservative+14.8 pts+12.9 pts+1.9 pts
    2017Harraby SouthLabour+0.4 pts-1.4 pts+1.8 pts
    2017BramptonLabour-3.2 pts-1.4 pts-1.8 pts
    2017WetheralGreen+0.0 pts+1.8 pts-1.7 pts
    2017Lyth ValleyLiberal Democrats+0.0 pts-1.6 pts+1.7 pts
    2017Kendal CastleConservative+14.5 pts+12.9 pts+1.7 pts
    2017ThursbyGreen+0.1 pts+1.8 pts-1.7 pts
    2017UpperbyConservative+14.5 pts+12.9 pts+1.6 pts
    2017Kent EstuaryLabour-3.0 pts-1.4 pts-1.6 pts
    2017Newbarns and ParksideLabour-3.0 pts-1.4 pts-1.6 pts
    2017Cleator Moor East and FrizingtonLabour-2.9 pts-1.4 pts-1.5 pts
    2017Lower KentdaleLabour+0.0 pts-1.4 pts+1.4 pts
    2017Lyth ValleyUK Independence Party (UKIP)-8.3 pts-9.7 pts+1.3 pts
    2017St Michael'sGreen+0.4 pts+1.8 pts-1.3 pts
    2017High FurnessLiberal Democrats-2.9 pts-1.6 pts-1.3 pts
    2017Stanwix UrbanLabour-2.6 pts-1.4 pts-1.2 pts
    2017Penrith EastUK Independence Party (UKIP)-10.8 pts-9.7 pts-1.2 pts
    2017Sedbergh and Kirkby LonsdaleLiberal Democrats-2.8 pts-1.6 pts-1.2 pts
    2017St John's and Great CliftonGreen+0.6 pts+1.8 pts-1.2 pts
    2017WigtonConservative+14.0 pts+12.9 pts+1.1 pts
    2017Kendal SouthLabour-2.5 pts-1.4 pts-1.1 pts
    2017Maryport NorthGreen+0.7 pts+1.8 pts-1.1 pts
    2017Low FurnessLiberal Democrats-2.6 pts-1.6 pts-1.0 pts
    2017High FurnessConservative+11.9 pts+12.9 pts-1.0 pts
    2017Ulverston EastLiberal Democrats-2.5 pts-1.6 pts-0.8 pts
    2017CastleGreen+0.9 pts+1.8 pts-0.8 pts
    2017Kells and SandwithConservative+13.7 pts+12.9 pts+0.8 pts
    2017Cleator Moor East and FrizingtonGreen+1.0 pts+1.8 pts-0.8 pts
    2017Cleator Moor WestConservative+12.2 pts+12.9 pts-0.6 pts
    2017HindpoolConservative+12.2 pts+12.9 pts-0.6 pts
    2017Maryport NorthConservative+13.3 pts+12.9 pts+0.4 pts
    2017Dalston and BurghLabour-1.8 pts-1.4 pts-0.4 pts
    2017SeatonGreen+2.1 pts+1.8 pts+0.4 pts
    2017MillomLabour-1.8 pts-1.4 pts-0.4 pts
    2017Ulverston WestGreen+2.1 pts+1.8 pts+0.4 pts
    2017BotcherbyLabour-1.7 pts-1.4 pts-0.4 pts
    2017Ulverston WestLabour-1.1 pts-1.4 pts+0.3 pts
    2017WindermereLabour-1.7 pts-1.4 pts-0.3 pts
    2017LakesLabour-1.2 pts-1.4 pts+0.2 pts
    2017LakesLiberal Democrats-1.8 pts-1.6 pts-0.2 pts
    2017Houghton and IrthingtonConservative+13.1 pts+12.9 pts+0.2 pts
    2017Solway CoastLabour-1.5 pts-1.4 pts-0.1 pts
    2017Dearham and BroughtonGreen+1.9 pts+1.8 pts+0.1 pts
    2017Kendal SouthConservative+12.9 pts+12.9 pts+0.0 pts