Dumfries and Galloway: wards that bucked the trend
Dumfries and Galloway: in 2022, 22 ward results beat the expected swing and 24 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Mid and Upper Nithsdale (+16.6 pts actual vs -11.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Mid and Upper Nithsdale | Independent | +16.6 pts | -11.4 pts | +28.0 pts |
| 2022 | Mid and Upper Nithsdale | Labour | -28.4 pts | -1.2 pts | -27.2 pts |
| 2022 | Stranraer and the Rhins | Independent | -21.4 pts | -11.4 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Galloway and Wigtown West | Conservative | +10.7 pts | +1.6 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2022 | Dee and Glenkens | Independent | -19.5 pts | -11.4 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale East and Eskdale | Labour | +6.8 pts | -1.2 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2022 | Stranraer and the Rhins | Conservative | +7.9 pts | +1.6 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2022 | Lochar | Labour | +5.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2022 | Nith | Independent | -5.5 pts | -11.4 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale North | Conservative | -4.2 pts | +1.6 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2022 | North West Dumfries | Conservative | -4.1 pts | +1.6 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Galloway and Wigtown West | Labour | +4.4 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale East and Eskdale | Conservative | -4.0 pts | +1.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale South | Conservative | +6.9 pts | +1.6 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2022 | Stranraer and the Rhins | Labour | +4.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2022 | Abbey | Labour | +4.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Lochar | SNP | +12.0 pts | +7.5 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2022 | Abbey | Conservative | -2.7 pts | +1.6 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale South | SNP | +3.8 pts | +7.5 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale East and Eskdale | SNP | +4.1 pts | +7.5 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Dee and Glenkens | Conservative | +4.6 pts | +1.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Lochar | Conservative | -1.3 pts | +1.6 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale South | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | +0.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Castle Douglas and Crocketford | Independent | -14.1 pts | -11.4 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Abbey | SNP | +10.0 pts | +7.5 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Nith | Conservative | -1.0 pts | +1.6 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Dee and Glenkens | Labour | +1.4 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Nith | Labour | -3.6 pts | -1.2 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Castle Douglas and Crocketford | SNP | +5.0 pts | +7.5 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | North West Dumfries | Labour | -3.3 pts | -1.2 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2022 | North West Dumfries | SNP | +9.5 pts | +7.5 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Dee and Glenkens | Green | +5.0 pts | +3.1 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale North | Labour | -3.0 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Castle Douglas and Crocketford | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +1.6 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Dee and Glenkens | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +0.9 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale South | Labour | -2.8 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Mid and Upper Nithsdale | SNP | +9.1 pts | +7.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Dee and Glenkens | SNP | +5.9 pts | +7.5 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale East and Eskdale | Independent | -12.9 pts | -11.4 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Annandale North | SNP | +6.1 pts | +7.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Stranraer and the Rhins | SNP | +8.7 pts | +7.5 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Mid and Upper Nithsdale | Conservative | +2.7 pts | +1.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Galloway and Wigtown West | SNP | +6.7 pts | +7.5 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Nith | Green | +2.4 pts | +3.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Nith | SNP | +7.7 pts | +7.5 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Castle Douglas and Crocketford | Labour | -1.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.1 pts |