East Ayrshire: wards that bucked the trend
East Ayrshire: in 2022, 18 ward results beat the expected swing and 13 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Doon Valley (-10.9 pts actual vs +4.3 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Doon Valley | Labour | -10.9 pts | +4.3 pts | -15.3 pts |
| 2022 | Doon Valley | Independent | +18.5 pts | +3.3 pts | +15.2 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock East and Hurlford | Labour | +12.2 pts | +4.3 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock East and Hurlford | SNP | -7.9 pts | -0.6 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2022 | Annick | Independent | +10.4 pts | +3.3 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock South | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -6.5 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2022 | Irvine Valley | SNP | +5.3 pts | -0.6 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock South | Labour | -1.5 pts | +4.3 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Annick | Conservative | -12.3 pts | -6.5 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2022 | Ballochmyle | Independent | -2.3 pts | +3.3 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock North | Conservative | -12.2 pts | -6.5 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Cumnock and New Cumnock | SNP | +5.0 pts | -0.6 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Doon Valley | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Irvine Valley | Conservative | -2.6 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2022 | Cumnock and New Cumnock | Labour | +8.1 pts | +4.3 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Doon Valley | SNP | -4.4 pts | -0.6 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Ballochmyle | Conservative | -3.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock East and Hurlford | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -6.5 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Ballochmyle | SNP | +2.2 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Cumnock and New Cumnock | Conservative | -3.7 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse | Conservative | -9.2 pts | -6.5 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock North | SNP | -2.2 pts | -0.6 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse | SNP | -2.2 pts | -0.6 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Irvine Valley | Labour | +5.8 pts | +4.3 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Annick | SNP | +0.8 pts | -0.6 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock East and Hurlford | Independent | +4.7 pts | +3.3 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Annick | Labour | +5.6 pts | +4.3 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock South | SNP | -1.4 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Ballochmyle | Labour | +3.8 pts | +4.3 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock North | Labour | +4.8 pts | +4.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse | Labour | +4.7 pts | +4.3 pts | +0.4 pts |