Psephology.AI

    East Lothian: wards that bucked the trend

    East Lothian: in 2022, 13 ward results beat the expected swing and 16 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in North Berwick Coastal (-9.6 pts actual vs -2.8 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    East Lothian: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2022North Berwick CoastalConservative-9.6 pts-2.8 pts-6.7 pts
    2022MusselburghSNP-6.8 pts-0.7 pts-6.1 pts
    2022Dunbar and East LintonConservative-8.4 pts-2.8 pts-5.6 pts
    2022Dunbar and East LintonLiberal Democrats+5.6 pts+0.4 pts+5.3 pts
    2022Haddington and LammermuirConservative-7.1 pts-2.8 pts-4.3 pts
    2022Haddington and LammermuirLabour+2.7 pts-1.3 pts+4.0 pts
    2022MusselburghLabour+2.6 pts-1.3 pts+3.9 pts
    2022MusselburghLiberal Democrats-3.4 pts+0.4 pts-3.8 pts
    2022North Berwick CoastalGreen+8.5 pts+5.3 pts+3.2 pts
    2022Preston, Seton and GosfordSNP+2.2 pts-0.7 pts+2.9 pts
    2022Dunbar and East LintonSNP-3.5 pts-0.7 pts-2.8 pts
    2022Preston, Seton and GosfordGreen+2.7 pts+5.3 pts-2.6 pts
    2022North Berwick CoastalSNP+1.9 pts-0.7 pts+2.6 pts
    2022Haddington and LammermuirLiberal Democrats-1.8 pts+0.4 pts-2.1 pts
    2022Tranent, Wallyford and MacmerryLabour-3.3 pts-1.3 pts-1.9 pts
    2022Haddington and LammermuirGreen+3.5 pts+5.3 pts-1.8 pts
    2022Tranent, Wallyford and MacmerrySNP+1.1 pts-0.7 pts+1.8 pts
    2022Preston, Seton and GosfordLabour-3.1 pts-1.3 pts-1.8 pts
    2022North Berwick CoastalLabour-2.6 pts-1.3 pts-1.3 pts
    2022Dunbar and East LintonGreen+6.3 pts+5.3 pts+1.0 pts
    2022Haddington and LammermuirSNP+0.1 pts-0.7 pts+0.8 pts
    2022Preston, Seton and GosfordConservative-3.7 pts-2.8 pts-0.8 pts
    2022Tranent, Wallyford and MacmerryLiberal Democrats-0.4 pts+0.4 pts-0.8 pts
    2022North Berwick CoastalLiberal Democrats+1.1 pts+0.4 pts+0.8 pts
    2022Tranent, Wallyford and MacmerryConservative-2.3 pts-2.8 pts+0.6 pts
    2022Preston, Seton and GosfordLiberal Democrats+0.9 pts+0.4 pts+0.5 pts
    2022MusselburghGreen+5.4 pts+5.3 pts+0.1 pts
    2022Tranent, Wallyford and MacmerryTUSC-0.1 pts-0.0 pts-0.0 pts
    2022Dunbar and East LintonLabour-1.3 pts-1.3 pts-0.0 pts