Edinburgh: wards that bucked the trend
Edinburgh: in 2022, 44 ward results beat the expected swing and 41 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Liberton/Gilmerton (-26.4 pts actual vs -2.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Liberton/Gilmerton | Labour | -26.4 pts | -2.2 pts | -24.3 pts |
| 2022 | Colinton/Fairmilehead | Labour | +12.8 pts | -2.2 pts | +15.0 pts |
| 2022 | Corstorphine/Murrayfield | Liberal Democrats | +19.2 pts | +6.9 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2022 | Drum Brae/Gyle | Liberal Democrats | +18.3 pts | +6.9 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2022 | Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart | Labour | +8.6 pts | -2.2 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2022 | Inverleith | Liberal Democrats | +17.1 pts | +6.9 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2022 | Colinton/Fairmilehead | Conservative | -19.8 pts | -10.2 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2022 | Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart | Green | -7.7 pts | +1.8 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2022 | Liberton/Gilmerton | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | +6.9 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2022 | Leith | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | +6.9 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2022 | Corstorphine/Murrayfield | Conservative | -17.4 pts | -10.2 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2022 | Morningside | Labour | +5.0 pts | -2.2 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2022 | Inverleith | Conservative | -16.9 pts | -10.2 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2022 | Sighthill/Gorgie | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | +6.9 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2022 | Southside/Newington | Labour | +3.9 pts | -2.2 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2022 | Portobello/Craigmillar | Conservative | -4.2 pts | -10.2 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2022 | Craigentinny/Duddingston | Conservative | -4.3 pts | -10.2 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2022 | Portobello/Craigmillar | SNP | +4.8 pts | -1.1 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2022 | Portobello/Craigmillar | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | +6.9 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart | Conservative | -5.2 pts | -10.2 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Liberton/Gilmerton | Conservative | -5.2 pts | -10.2 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Forth | Liberal Democrats | +11.9 pts | +6.9 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Drum Brae/Gyle | Labour | -7.1 pts | -2.2 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | +6.9 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Leith Walk | Green | +6.2 pts | +1.8 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2022 | Craigentinny/Duddingston | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | +6.9 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2022 | Portobello/Craigmillar | Labour | -6.5 pts | -2.2 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2022 | Pentland Hills | Liberal Democrats | +3.0 pts | +6.9 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2022 | Pentland Hills | SNP | +2.5 pts | -1.1 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Sighthill/Gorgie | Labour | +1.4 pts | -2.2 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2022 | City Centre | Labour | +1.4 pts | -2.2 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Leith | Conservative | -6.9 pts | -10.2 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Sighthill/Gorgie | Green | -1.6 pts | +1.8 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Leith | Labour | +1.0 pts | -2.2 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Forth | Conservative | -13.3 pts | -10.2 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Craigentinny/Duddingston | Green | +4.8 pts | +1.8 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Pentland Hills | Conservative | -7.3 pts | -10.2 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Sighthill/Gorgie | SNP | -4.0 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Sighthill/Gorgie | Conservative | -7.3 pts | -10.2 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Southside/Newington | Liberal Democrats | +4.0 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart | SNP | +1.7 pts | -1.1 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Leith Walk | Conservative | -7.5 pts | -10.2 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Inverleith | Independent | -2.5 pts | +0.2 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Leith Walk | SNP | -3.7 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2022 | City Centre | Green | -0.7 pts | +1.8 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Leith | SNP | -3.5 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Colinton/Fairmilehead | SNP | -3.5 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Inverleith | Labour | +0.2 pts | -2.2 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Corstorphine/Murrayfield | Labour | +0.2 pts | -2.2 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Almond | Liberal Democrats | +9.1 pts | +6.9 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Liberton/Gilmerton | SNP | -3.1 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Corstorphine/Murrayfield | SNP | -2.9 pts | -1.1 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Inverleith | SNP | +0.7 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Drum Brae/Gyle | SNP | -2.9 pts | -1.1 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Pentland Hills | Green | +3.5 pts | +1.8 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Morningside | Conservative | -11.9 pts | -10.2 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Leith | Green | +3.4 pts | +1.8 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Almond | Labour | -0.6 pts | -2.2 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Pentland Hills | Labour | -3.5 pts | -2.2 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Leith Walk | Liberal Democrats | +8.2 pts | +6.9 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Morningside | SNP | -2.4 pts | -1.1 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Inverleith | Green | +0.5 pts | +1.8 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Liberton/Gilmerton | Green | +3.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | City Centre | Conservative | -11.3 pts | -10.2 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Southside/Newington | Green | +2.7 pts | +1.8 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Southside/Newington | Conservative | -9.3 pts | -10.2 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Forth | Green | +2.7 pts | +1.8 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Almond | Green | +2.7 pts | +1.8 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Almond | Conservative | -9.4 pts | -10.2 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Colinton/Fairmilehead | Liberal Democrats | +7.8 pts | +6.9 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Forth | SNP | -0.3 pts | -1.1 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Craigentinny/Duddingston | SNP | -0.4 pts | -1.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Portobello/Craigmillar | Green | +1.1 pts | +1.8 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Morningside | Liberal Democrats | +6.2 pts | +6.9 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Drum Brae/Gyle | Conservative | -10.9 pts | -10.2 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Colinton/Fairmilehead | Green | +1.2 pts | +1.8 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Almond | SNP | -1.7 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | City Centre | SNP | -0.6 pts | -1.1 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Craigentinny/Duddingston | Labour | -2.6 pts | -2.2 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Forth | Labour | -1.8 pts | -2.2 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Southside/Newington | SNP | -1.4 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Drum Brae/Gyle | Green | +1.5 pts | +1.8 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | City Centre | Liberal Democrats | +7.1 pts | +6.9 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Corstorphine/Murrayfield | Green | +1.7 pts | +1.8 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Morningside | Green | +1.7 pts | +1.8 pts | -0.1 pts |