Falkirk: wards that bucked the trend
Falkirk: in 2022, 21 ward results beat the expected swing and 19 trailed it. The biggest gap was SNP in Bo'ness and Blackness (-20.5 pts actual vs +0.9 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bo'ness and Blackness | SNP | -20.5 pts | +0.9 pts | -21.4 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Braes | Labour | +12.9 pts | -0.1 pts | +13.1 pts |
| 2022 | Denny and Banknock | Independent | -9.2 pts | +1.5 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Braes | SNP | +9.2 pts | +0.9 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Bo'ness and Blackness | Labour | -7.3 pts | -0.1 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2022 | Denny and Banknock | Conservative | +1.7 pts | -5.0 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Braes | Conservative | -11.1 pts | -5.0 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2022 | Bo'ness and Blackness | Conservative | -11.0 pts | -5.0 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2022 | Falkirk North | SNP | -4.7 pts | +0.9 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2022 | Denny and Banknock | SNP | +6.2 pts | +0.9 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2022 | Falkirk South | SNP | +6.0 pts | +0.9 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Grangemouth | SNP | +5.8 pts | +0.9 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Falkirk South | Labour | -4.8 pts | -0.1 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2022 | Bo'ness and Blackness | Green | -3.3 pts | +0.9 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Falkirk North | Conservative | -0.8 pts | -5.0 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Grangemouth | Independent | -2.3 pts | +1.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Upper Braes | Conservative | -8.4 pts | -5.0 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst | SNP | +3.9 pts | +0.9 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Bonnybridge and Larbert | Labour | +1.9 pts | -0.1 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Lower Braes | Green | +2.8 pts | +0.9 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Upper Braes | Green | +2.4 pts | +0.9 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Falkirk South | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -5.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Falkirk North | Green | +2.3 pts | +0.9 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Bonnybridge and Larbert | Independent | +2.8 pts | +1.5 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst | Conservative | -3.8 pts | -5.0 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Falkirk North | Labour | -1.3 pts | -0.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Bonnybridge and Larbert | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -5.0 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst | Labour | -1.0 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst | Green | +0.0 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Upper Braes | SNP | +1.8 pts | +0.9 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Bonnybridge and Larbert | SNP | +0.2 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Upper Braes | Labour | -0.7 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Denny and Banknock | Labour | +0.4 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Denny and Banknock | Green | +1.3 pts | +0.9 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Grangemouth | Green | +0.5 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Grangemouth | Labour | +0.2 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Falkirk South | Green | +0.6 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Upper Braes | Independent | +1.2 pts | +1.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Grangemouth | Conservative | -4.8 pts | -5.0 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Bonnybridge and Larbert | Green | +1.1 pts | +0.9 pts | +0.2 pts |