Psephology.AI

    Fife: wards that bucked the trend

    Fife: in 2022, 50 ward results beat the expected swing and 53 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Dunfermline Central (+17.8 pts actual vs +3.7 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Fife: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2022Dunfermline CentralLiberal Democrats+17.8 pts+3.7 pts+14.0 pts
    2022St AndrewsLiberal Democrats+17.5 pts+3.7 pts+13.8 pts
    2022Burntisland, Kinghorn and Western KirkcaldyLiberal Democrats-9.5 pts+3.7 pts-13.2 pts
    2022Burntisland, Kinghorn and Western KirkcaldyLabour+12.3 pts+0.1 pts+12.2 pts
    2022CowdenbeathConservative+3.5 pts-6.6 pts+10.1 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy EastLabour+10.0 pts+0.1 pts+9.9 pts
    2022CowdenbeathLabour-9.1 pts+0.1 pts-9.3 pts
    2022East Neuk and LandwardConservative-15.7 pts-6.6 pts-9.1 pts
    2022CuparConservative-15.0 pts-6.6 pts-8.5 pts
    2022Dunfermline CentralConservative-14.7 pts-6.6 pts-8.1 pts
    2022CuparLiberal Democrats+11.7 pts+3.7 pts+8.0 pts
    2022RosythLabour+8.0 pts+0.1 pts+7.9 pts
    2022Burntisland, Kinghorn and Western KirkcaldySNP+11.1 pts+3.3 pts+7.8 pts
    2022Glenrothes West and KinglassieLabour+6.3 pts+0.1 pts+6.1 pts
    2022Dunfermline SouthConservative-12.6 pts-6.6 pts-6.0 pts
    2022Dunfermline NorthLiberal Democrats-2.1 pts+3.7 pts-5.9 pts
    2022Leven, Kennoway and LargoLiberal Democrats+9.5 pts+3.7 pts+5.8 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy CentralLabour+5.9 pts+0.1 pts+5.8 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy NorthLabour-5.3 pts+0.1 pts-5.4 pts
    2022Howe of Fife and Tay CoastLiberal Democrats+8.6 pts+3.7 pts+4.9 pts
    2022Inverkeithing and Dalgety BayLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts+3.7 pts-4.7 pts
    2022Inverkeithing and Dalgety BaySNP+8.0 pts+3.3 pts+4.7 pts
    2022RosythLiberal Democrats-0.9 pts+3.7 pts-4.6 pts
    2022East Neuk and LandwardLiberal Democrats+8.3 pts+3.7 pts+4.5 pts
    2022West Fife and Coastal VillagesConservative-2.0 pts-6.6 pts+4.5 pts
    2022Lochgelly, Cardenden and BenartyConservative-2.1 pts-6.6 pts+4.5 pts
    2022St AndrewsLabour-4.4 pts+0.1 pts-4.5 pts
    2022Inverkeithing and Dalgety BayGreen+4.7 pts+0.4 pts+4.4 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy NorthConservative-2.4 pts-6.6 pts+4.1 pts
    2022Glenrothes North, Leslie and MarkinchLabour+4.2 pts+0.1 pts+4.0 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy CentralLiberal Democrats-0.3 pts+3.7 pts-4.0 pts
    2022Leven, Kennoway and LargoConservative-10.6 pts-6.6 pts-4.0 pts
    2022Glenrothes Central and ThorntonConservative-2.7 pts-6.6 pts+3.9 pts
    2022East Neuk and LandwardSNP-0.5 pts+3.3 pts-3.8 pts
    2022CowdenbeathLiberal Democrats-0.1 pts+3.7 pts-3.8 pts
    2022Glenrothes West and KinglassieIndependent-7.0 pts-3.2 pts-3.8 pts
    2022Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss VillagesConservative-2.8 pts-6.6 pts+3.8 pts
    2022Dunfermline SouthSNP-0.4 pts+3.3 pts-3.7 pts
    2022Tay BridgeheadSNP-0.2 pts+3.3 pts-3.5 pts
    2022West Fife and Coastal VillagesLabour-3.2 pts+0.1 pts-3.3 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy NorthSNP+6.4 pts+3.3 pts+3.1 pts
    2022Leven, Kennoway and LargoLabour-2.9 pts+0.1 pts-3.0 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy EastConservative-3.6 pts-6.6 pts+3.0 pts
    2022Glenrothes West and KinglassieConservative-3.6 pts-6.6 pts+3.0 pts
    2022West Fife and Coastal VillagesLiberal Democrats+0.9 pts+3.7 pts-2.8 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy EastLiberal Democrats+1.0 pts+3.7 pts-2.7 pts
    2022Howe of Fife and Tay CoastConservative-9.2 pts-6.6 pts-2.6 pts
    2022Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss VillagesLiberal Democrats+1.2 pts+3.7 pts-2.6 pts
    2022Burntisland, Kinghorn and Western KirkcaldyConservative-4.1 pts-6.6 pts+2.5 pts
    2022Glenrothes Central and ThorntonLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts+3.7 pts-2.4 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy CentralConservative-4.2 pts-6.6 pts+2.4 pts
    2022Glenrothes West and KinglassieSNP+5.5 pts+3.3 pts+2.2 pts
    2022Glenrothes North, Leslie and MarkinchConservative-4.4 pts-6.6 pts+2.2 pts
    2022East Neuk and LandwardLabour-2.0 pts+0.1 pts-2.2 pts
    2022Dunfermline CentralLabour-1.9 pts+0.1 pts-2.1 pts
    2022Tay BridgeheadConservative-8.4 pts-6.6 pts-1.8 pts
    2022Dunfermline NorthGreen+2.2 pts+0.4 pts+1.8 pts
    2022Glenrothes North, Leslie and MarkinchSNP+1.5 pts+3.3 pts-1.8 pts
    2022Glenrothes North, Leslie and MarkinchLiberal Democrats+2.0 pts+3.7 pts-1.8 pts
    2022Glenrothes West and KinglassieLiberal Democrats+2.0 pts+3.7 pts-1.7 pts
    2022CuparSNP+1.6 pts+3.3 pts-1.7 pts
    2022Howe of Fife and Tay CoastGreen+2.0 pts+0.4 pts+1.6 pts
    2022Dunfermline NorthLabour-1.5 pts+0.1 pts-1.6 pts
    2022Inverkeithing and Dalgety BayLabour+1.7 pts+0.1 pts+1.6 pts
    2022Dunfermline NorthSNP+4.8 pts+3.3 pts+1.5 pts
    2022Lochgelly, Cardenden and BenartyLabour-1.3 pts+0.1 pts-1.4 pts
    2022Glenrothes Central and ThorntonLabour-1.2 pts+0.1 pts-1.4 pts
    2022West Fife and Coastal VillagesGreen+1.7 pts+0.4 pts+1.3 pts
    2022Dunfermline SouthLiberal Democrats+2.5 pts+3.7 pts-1.3 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy CentralSNP+2.0 pts+3.3 pts-1.3 pts
    2022St AndrewsConservative-5.3 pts-6.6 pts+1.2 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy EastSNP+4.5 pts+3.3 pts+1.2 pts
    2022Tay BridgeheadLabour-1.0 pts+0.1 pts-1.1 pts
    2022RosythConservative-5.5 pts-6.6 pts+1.1 pts
    2022Tay BridgeheadLiberal Democrats+2.7 pts+3.7 pts-1.1 pts
    2022Lochgelly, Cardenden and BenartySNP+4.3 pts+3.3 pts+1.1 pts
    2022Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss VillagesSNP+2.3 pts+3.3 pts-1.0 pts
    2022Dunfermline NorthConservative-5.6 pts-6.6 pts+0.9 pts
    2022Glenrothes Central and ThorntonGreen+1.2 pts+0.4 pts+0.9 pts
    2022Glenrothes Central and ThorntonSNP+4.1 pts+3.3 pts+0.8 pts
    2022Howe of Fife and Tay CoastSNP+2.5 pts+3.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2022West Fife and Coastal VillagesSNP+2.5 pts+3.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2022Inverkeithing and Dalgety BayConservative-7.4 pts-6.6 pts-0.8 pts
    2022CuparLabour-0.6 pts+0.1 pts-0.7 pts
    2022Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss VillagesLabour+0.8 pts+0.1 pts+0.7 pts
    2022Dunfermline SouthLabour+0.8 pts+0.1 pts+0.7 pts
    2022St AndrewsGreen+1.0 pts+0.4 pts+0.6 pts
    2022East Neuk and LandwardGreen+1.0 pts+0.4 pts+0.6 pts
    2022Lochgelly, Cardenden and BenartyGreen+1.0 pts+0.4 pts+0.6 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy CentralGreen-0.1 pts+0.4 pts-0.5 pts
    2022West Fife and Coastal VillagesIndependent-2.8 pts-3.2 pts+0.5 pts
    2022Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss VillagesGreen+0.8 pts+0.4 pts+0.4 pts
    2022St AndrewsSNP+3.7 pts+3.3 pts+0.4 pts
    2022RosythSNP+2.9 pts+3.3 pts-0.3 pts
    2022CowdenbeathSNP+2.9 pts+3.3 pts-0.3 pts
    2022Dunfermline CentralSNP+3.6 pts+3.3 pts+0.3 pts
    2022Glenrothes North, Leslie and MarkinchGreen+0.0 pts+0.4 pts-0.3 pts
    2022Leven, Kennoway and LargoSNP+3.1 pts+3.3 pts-0.2 pts
    2022Leven, Kennoway and LargoGreen+0.6 pts+0.4 pts+0.2 pts
    2022Dunfermline SouthGreen+0.2 pts+0.4 pts-0.2 pts
    2022CuparGreen+0.2 pts+0.4 pts-0.2 pts
    2022Kirkcaldy EastGreen+0.2 pts+0.4 pts-0.2 pts
    2022CowdenbeathGreen+0.3 pts+0.4 pts-0.1 pts