Psephology.AI

    Highland: wards that bucked the trend

    Highland: in 2022, 48 ward results beat the expected swing and 47 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Wick and East Caithness (-38.8 pts actual vs -8.3 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Highland: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2022Wick and East CaithnessIndependent-38.8 pts-8.3 pts-30.5 pts
    2022Fort William and ArdnamurchanLiberal Democrats+32.9 pts+7.5 pts+25.4 pts
    2022Fort William and ArdnamurchanIndependent-32.2 pts-8.3 pts-23.9 pts
    2022Wick and East CaithnessLiberal Democrats+26.1 pts+7.5 pts+18.7 pts
    2022Tain and Easter RossIndependent+8.2 pts-8.3 pts+16.5 pts
    2022Thurso and Northwest CaithnessLiberal Democrats+23.7 pts+7.5 pts+16.2 pts
    2022Badenoch and StrathspeyIndependent+7.2 pts-8.3 pts+15.5 pts
    2022Inverness SouthLiberal Democrats-7.1 pts+7.5 pts-14.5 pts
    2022Inverness CentralIndependent-22.2 pts-8.3 pts-13.9 pts
    2022Cromarty FirthLiberal Democrats+21.1 pts+7.5 pts+13.6 pts
    2022Black IsleIndependent+4.7 pts-8.3 pts+13.0 pts
    2022Inverness MillburnLabour-15.8 pts-3.6 pts-12.2 pts
    2022Thurso and Northwest CaithnessIndependent-20.4 pts-8.3 pts-12.1 pts
    2022Black IsleLiberal Democrats-4.3 pts+7.5 pts-11.8 pts
    2022North, West and Central SutherlandSNP+15.3 pts+4.0 pts+11.3 pts
    2022Inverness SouthIndependent+3.0 pts-8.3 pts+11.3 pts
    2022Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and LochalshIndependent+2.8 pts-8.3 pts+11.1 pts
    2022Aird and Loch NessLiberal Democrats-3.6 pts+7.5 pts-11.1 pts
    2022Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and LochalshSNP+15.0 pts+4.0 pts+11.0 pts
    2022Inverness CentralLabour+7.3 pts-3.6 pts+10.9 pts
    2022Dingwall and SeaforthLiberal Democrats-2.9 pts+7.5 pts-10.4 pts
    2022Cromarty FirthIndependent-18.2 pts-8.3 pts-9.9 pts
    2022Wick and East CaithnessSNP+13.6 pts+4.0 pts+9.6 pts
    2022Tain and Easter RossLiberal Democrats-1.8 pts+7.5 pts-9.2 pts
    2022Inverness MillburnLiberal Democrats+16.4 pts+7.5 pts+8.9 pts
    2022East Sutherland and EddertonLiberal Democrats+16.2 pts+7.5 pts+8.7 pts
    2022Cromarty FirthSNP-4.5 pts+4.0 pts-8.5 pts
    2022Badenoch and StrathspeyLiberal Democrats-0.8 pts+7.5 pts-8.2 pts
    2022North, West and Central SutherlandConservative-8.9 pts-0.8 pts-8.1 pts
    2022Inverness WestIndependent-16.3 pts-8.3 pts-8.0 pts
    2022Culloden and ArdersierLabour+4.4 pts-3.6 pts+8.0 pts
    2022Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and LochalshLiberal Democrats-0.4 pts+7.5 pts-7.9 pts
    2022Culloden and ArdersierLiberal Democrats-0.4 pts+7.5 pts-7.8 pts
    2022Tain and Easter RossConservative-8.5 pts-0.8 pts-7.8 pts
    2022Inverness Ness-SideIndependent-0.7 pts-8.3 pts+7.6 pts
    2022North, West and Central SutherlandIndependent-15.6 pts-8.3 pts-7.4 pts
    2022Badenoch and StrathspeyConservative-8.0 pts-0.8 pts-7.3 pts
    2022Eilean a' CheòIndependent-14.9 pts-8.3 pts-6.7 pts
    2022Black IsleSNP-2.0 pts+4.0 pts-6.0 pts
    2022Eilean a' CheòLiberal Democrats+1.5 pts+7.5 pts-5.9 pts
    2022Inverness Ness-SideLiberal Democrats+1.8 pts+7.5 pts-5.7 pts
    2022Inverness CentralLiberal Democrats+1.9 pts+7.5 pts-5.5 pts
    2022Inverness WestLabour+1.7 pts-3.6 pts+5.3 pts
    2022Eilean a' CheòLabour+1.5 pts-3.6 pts+5.1 pts
    2022Eilean a' CheòConservative+4.4 pts-0.8 pts+5.1 pts
    2022Inverness Ness-SideConservative-5.5 pts-0.8 pts-4.7 pts
    2022Badenoch and StrathspeyGreen-3.8 pts+0.8 pts-4.5 pts
    2022Inverness CentralSNP+8.5 pts+4.0 pts+4.5 pts
    2022East Sutherland and EddertonSNP+8.3 pts+4.0 pts+4.4 pts
    2022Black IsleLabour+0.7 pts-3.6 pts+4.3 pts
    2022Black IsleGreen+4.8 pts+0.8 pts+4.0 pts
    2022Cromarty FirthLabour+0.4 pts-3.6 pts+4.0 pts
    2022Nairn and CawdorLiberal Democrats+3.5 pts+7.5 pts-3.9 pts
    2022Dingwall and SeaforthLabour+0.2 pts-3.6 pts+3.8 pts
    2022Inverness MillburnSNP+7.6 pts+4.0 pts+3.6 pts
    2022Fort William and ArdnamurchanSNP+0.6 pts+4.0 pts-3.4 pts
    2022Dingwall and SeaforthIndependent-5.0 pts-8.3 pts+3.3 pts
    2022Inverness SouthLabour-0.4 pts-3.6 pts+3.3 pts
    2022East Sutherland and EddertonConservative+2.5 pts-0.8 pts+3.2 pts
    2022Black IsleConservative-4.0 pts-0.8 pts-3.2 pts
    2022North, West and Central SutherlandLiberal Democrats+10.1 pts+7.5 pts+2.6 pts
    2022Inverness SouthConservative-3.2 pts-0.8 pts-2.5 pts
    2022Inverness MillburnConservative+1.6 pts-0.8 pts+2.4 pts
    2022Aird and Loch NessConservative+1.4 pts-0.8 pts+2.2 pts
    2022Inverness WestSNP+1.9 pts+4.0 pts-2.1 pts
    2022Wick and East CaithnessConservative+1.2 pts-0.8 pts+2.0 pts
    2022North, West and Central SutherlandLabour-5.5 pts-3.6 pts-1.9 pts
    2022Fort William and ArdnamurchanConservative-2.6 pts-0.8 pts-1.9 pts
    2022Tain and Easter RossSNP+2.1 pts+4.0 pts-1.9 pts
    2022Inverness WestConservative-2.6 pts-0.8 pts-1.8 pts
    2022East Sutherland and EddertonIndependent-6.4 pts-8.3 pts+1.8 pts
    2022Aird and Loch NessGreen+2.5 pts+0.8 pts+1.7 pts
    2022Culloden and ArdersierIndependent-6.6 pts-8.3 pts+1.7 pts
    2022Nairn and CawdorConservative+0.8 pts-0.8 pts+1.6 pts
    2022Inverness SouthSNP+2.5 pts+4.0 pts-1.5 pts
    2022Thurso and Northwest CaithnessConservative+0.7 pts-0.8 pts+1.5 pts
    2022Wick and East CaithnessLabour-2.1 pts-3.6 pts+1.5 pts
    2022Nairn and CawdorIndependent-7.1 pts-8.3 pts+1.2 pts
    2022Inverness CentralConservative+0.3 pts-0.8 pts+1.1 pts
    2022Cromarty FirthConservative-1.7 pts-0.8 pts-0.9 pts
    2022Inverness WestLiberal Democrats+6.5 pts+7.5 pts-0.9 pts
    2022Aird and Loch NessIndependent-9.1 pts-8.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2022Inverness Ness-SideSNP+3.3 pts+4.0 pts-0.7 pts
    2022Inverness Ness-SideLabour-2.9 pts-3.6 pts+0.7 pts
    2022Inverness CentralGreen+1.4 pts+0.8 pts+0.6 pts
    2022Culloden and ArdersierSNP+3.4 pts+4.0 pts-0.5 pts
    2022Culloden and ArdersierConservative-0.3 pts-0.8 pts+0.5 pts
    2022Dingwall and SeaforthSNP+3.6 pts+4.0 pts-0.4 pts
    2022Dingwall and SeaforthConservative-0.4 pts-0.8 pts+0.4 pts
    2022Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and LochalshConservative-1.1 pts-0.8 pts-0.4 pts
    2022Badenoch and StrathspeySNP+4.3 pts+4.0 pts+0.3 pts
    2022Thurso and Northwest CaithnessSNP+4.2 pts+4.0 pts+0.2 pts
    2022Eilean a' CheòSNP+3.9 pts+4.0 pts-0.1 pts
    2022Nairn and CawdorSNP+3.9 pts+4.0 pts-0.1 pts
    2022Aird and Loch NessSNP+3.9 pts+4.0 pts-0.0 pts