Midlothian: wards that bucked the trend
Midlothian: in 2022, 14 ward results beat the expected swing and 11 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Bonnyrigg (-3.1 pts actual vs +2.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bonnyrigg | Green | -3.1 pts | +2.2 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2022 | Penicuik | Labour | -1.6 pts | +3.3 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian East | Labour | +7.1 pts | +3.3 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian South | Conservative | -2.9 pts | -6.0 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Dalkeith | SNP | +4.2 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Penicuik | Conservative | -8.5 pts | -6.0 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian West | Conservative | -8.3 pts | -6.0 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Penicuik | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | +1.2 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian East | Conservative | -4.5 pts | -6.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Bonnyrigg | Conservative | -4.8 pts | -6.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian East | Green | +3.3 pts | +2.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Penicuik | SNP | +8.0 pts | +6.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian West | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Bonnyrigg | Labour | +4.2 pts | +3.3 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian South | Green | +1.3 pts | +2.2 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Dalkeith | Green | +2.9 pts | +2.2 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian South | Labour | +2.7 pts | +3.3 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Bonnyrigg | SNP | +7.4 pts | +6.9 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian East | SNP | +7.4 pts | +6.9 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian West | Green | +1.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian South | SNP | +6.5 pts | +6.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Dalkeith | Labour | +3.7 pts | +3.3 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian West | Labour | +3.5 pts | +3.3 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Dalkeith | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -6.0 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Midlothian West | SNP | +7.0 pts | +6.9 pts | +0.1 pts |