Moray: wards that bucked the trend
Moray: in 2022, 10 ward results beat the expected swing and 14 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Elgin City South (-2.1 pts actual vs -16.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Elgin City South | Independent | -2.1 pts | -16.2 pts | +14.1 pts |
| 2022 | Speyside Glenlivet | Independent | -3.4 pts | -16.2 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2022 | Keith and Cullen | Conservative | +10.9 pts | +0.1 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2022 | Forres | Independent | -25.6 pts | -16.2 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2022 | Elgin City South | Conservative | -9.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2022 | Elgin City North | Labour | +16.5 pts | +7.9 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2022 | Speyside Glenlivet | SNP | -3.7 pts | +4.3 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2022 | Elgin City North | Conservative | -7.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2022 | Forres | SNP | +10.8 pts | +4.3 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2022 | Heldon and Laich | SNP | +10.5 pts | +4.3 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2022 | Forres | Conservative | +5.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2022 | Elgin City South | Labour | +3.3 pts | +7.9 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2022 | Fochabers Lhanbryde | SNP | +8.9 pts | +4.3 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2022 | Elgin City North | SNP | -0.1 pts | +4.3 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2022 | Fochabers Lhanbryde | Conservative | -2.9 pts | +0.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Fochabers Lhanbryde | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | +2.6 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Speyside Glenlivet | Conservative | -2.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2022 | Heldon and Laich | Conservative | +1.7 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Elgin City North | Independent | -17.7 pts | -16.2 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Heldon and Laich | Independent | -17.6 pts | -16.2 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Forres | Green | -1.3 pts | -0.7 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Elgin City South | SNP | +4.9 pts | +4.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Keith and Cullen | SNP | +3.9 pts | +4.3 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Heldon and Laich | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.2 pts |