Perth and Kinross: wards that bucked the trend
Perth and Kinross: in 2022, 21 ward results beat the expected swing and 24 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Strathmore (+13.4 pts actual vs -0.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Strathmore | Independent | +13.4 pts | -0.5 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2022 | Strathtay | Liberal Democrats | +14.5 pts | +0.9 pts | +13.7 pts |
| 2022 | Carse of Gowrie | Labour | +13.0 pts | +0.3 pts | +12.7 pts |
| 2022 | Strathmore | Liberal Democrats | -10.7 pts | +0.9 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2022 | Kinross-shire | Independent | -10.7 pts | -0.5 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2022 | Carse of Gowrie | SNP | -1.9 pts | +5.8 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City South | Conservative | -2.4 pts | -8.1 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2022 | Carse of Gowrie | Conservative | -12.5 pts | -8.1 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2022 | Strathmore | Conservative | -11.7 pts | -8.1 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Strathearn | SNP | +9.0 pts | +5.8 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Almond and Earn | Conservative | -11.3 pts | -8.1 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Strathearn | Liberal Democrats | +4.0 pts | +0.9 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Blairgowrie and Glens | Green | -0.0 pts | +3.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Strathallan | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -8.1 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Strathtay | SNP | +8.7 pts | +5.8 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Kinross-shire | Liberal Democrats | +3.6 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Blairgowrie and Glens | Conservative | -10.8 pts | -8.1 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Kinross-shire | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -8.1 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Blairgowrie and Glens | SNP | +3.3 pts | +5.8 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Almond and Earn | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Carse of Gowrie | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | +0.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City North | Conservative | -6.0 pts | -8.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City South | SNP | +7.9 pts | +5.8 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Strathtay | Conservative | -10.0 pts | -8.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Strathallan | SNP | +7.7 pts | +5.8 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Kinross-shire | Labour | +2.0 pts | +0.3 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Carse of Gowrie | Green | +1.4 pts | +3.1 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City South | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | +0.9 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Almond and Earn | SNP | +4.2 pts | +5.8 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Strathearn | Conservative | -9.6 pts | -8.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Strathallan | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | +0.9 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Strathearn | Independent | +0.7 pts | -0.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City South | Labour | -0.7 pts | +0.3 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Kinross-shire | SNP | +6.8 pts | +5.8 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City North | SNP | +6.7 pts | +5.8 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City Centre | Labour | -0.5 pts | +0.3 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City North | Labour | -0.5 pts | +0.3 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Blairgowrie and Glens | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City Centre | Liberal Democrats | +0.5 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Strathmore | SNP | +5.5 pts | +5.8 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Strathallan | Green | +3.3 pts | +3.1 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City Centre | Conservative | -7.9 pts | -8.1 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City Centre | Independent | -0.6 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City North | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Perth City Centre | SNP | +5.9 pts | +5.8 pts | +0.0 pts |