Psephology.AI

    Renfrewshire: wards that bucked the trend

    Renfrewshire: in 2022, 29 ward results beat the expected swing and 22 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and Lochwinnoch (+9.7 pts actual vs -1.7 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Renfrewshire: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2022Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and LochwinnochIndependent+9.7 pts-1.7 pts+11.4 pts
    2022Johnstone South and ElderslieLabour+12.2 pts+4.1 pts+8.1 pts
    2022Renfrew North and BraeheadLabour-2.7 pts+4.1 pts-6.8 pts
    2022Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and LangbankConservative-11.1 pts-4.8 pts-6.4 pts
    2022Paisley Northeast and RalstonLabour+10.0 pts+4.1 pts+5.9 pts
    2022Paisley Northeast and RalstonLiberal Democrats-5.7 pts-0.3 pts-5.5 pts
    2022Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and LochwinnochLabour-1.3 pts+4.1 pts-5.5 pts
    2022Renfrew North and BraeheadSNP+8.9 pts+4.1 pts+4.9 pts
    2022Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and LochwinnochSNP-0.8 pts+4.1 pts-4.9 pts
    2022Paisley NorthwestIndependent-5.7 pts-1.7 pts-4.0 pts
    2022Paisley South WestLabour+0.3 pts+4.1 pts-3.8 pts
    2022Renfrew South and GallowhillSNP+7.7 pts+4.1 pts+3.6 pts
    2022Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and LangbankLabour+7.4 pts+4.1 pts+3.3 pts
    2022Paisley East and CentralGreen+2.2 pts-1.1 pts+3.3 pts
    2022Paisley SoutheastSNP+0.9 pts+4.1 pts-3.2 pts
    2022Paisley South WestLiberal Democrats-3.4 pts-0.3 pts-3.1 pts
    2022Erskine and InchinnanSNP+6.8 pts+4.1 pts+2.7 pts
    2022Renfrew North and BraeheadLiberal Democrats+2.2 pts-0.3 pts+2.5 pts
    2022Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and LangbankLiberal Democrats+2.2 pts-0.3 pts+2.5 pts
    2022Paisley SoutheastLabour+1.7 pts+4.1 pts-2.5 pts
    2022Houston, Crosslee and LinwoodLabour+6.6 pts+4.1 pts+2.5 pts
    2022Paisley NorthwestSNP+1.6 pts+4.1 pts-2.5 pts
    2022Paisley NorthwestGreen+0.9 pts-1.1 pts+2.0 pts
    2022Erskine and InchinnanLabour+6.1 pts+4.1 pts+2.0 pts
    2022Johnstone South and ElderslieConservative-6.7 pts-4.8 pts-1.9 pts
    2022Paisley Northeast and RalstonConservative-2.9 pts-4.8 pts+1.9 pts
    2022Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and LochwinnochConservative-6.6 pts-4.8 pts-1.9 pts
    2022Paisley SoutheastConservative-3.0 pts-4.8 pts+1.8 pts
    2022Erskine and InchinnanLiberal Democrats+1.5 pts-0.3 pts+1.8 pts
    2022Erskine and InchinnanConservative-3.1 pts-4.8 pts+1.6 pts
    2022Paisley SoutheastLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts-0.3 pts+1.6 pts
    2022Paisley East and CentralSNP+2.6 pts+4.1 pts-1.5 pts
    2022Renfrew South and GallowhillConservative-6.3 pts-4.8 pts-1.5 pts
    2022Renfrew South and GallowhillLabour+2.6 pts+4.1 pts-1.5 pts
    2022Paisley South WestSNP+5.6 pts+4.1 pts+1.5 pts
    2022Paisley East and CentralLabour+2.7 pts+4.1 pts-1.4 pts
    2022Paisley SoutheastIndependent-3.0 pts-1.7 pts-1.3 pts
    2022Paisley South WestConservative-3.4 pts-4.8 pts+1.3 pts
    2022Paisley East and CentralConservative-5.9 pts-4.8 pts-1.1 pts
    2022Paisley SoutheastSSP+0.8 pts-0.1 pts+0.9 pts
    2022Renfrew North and BraeheadConservative-4.0 pts-4.8 pts+0.7 pts
    2022Houston, Crosslee and LinwoodConservative-4.2 pts-4.8 pts+0.6 pts
    2022Paisley NorthwestConservative-4.2 pts-4.8 pts+0.5 pts
    2022Johnstone South and ElderslieSNP+3.6 pts+4.1 pts-0.5 pts
    2022Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and LochwinnochLiberal Democrats+0.2 pts-0.3 pts+0.5 pts
    2022Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and LangbankSNP+4.5 pts+4.1 pts+0.5 pts
    2022Paisley NorthwestLiberal Democrats+0.1 pts-0.3 pts+0.4 pts
    2022Paisley NorthwestLabour+4.4 pts+4.1 pts+0.3 pts
    2022Houston, Crosslee and LinwoodSNP+3.9 pts+4.1 pts-0.1 pts
    2022Renfrew North and BraeheadIndependent-1.8 pts-1.7 pts-0.1 pts
    2022Paisley Northeast and RalstonSNP+4.1 pts+4.1 pts+0.0 pts