Scottish Borders: wards that bucked the trend
Scottish Borders: in 2022, 26 ward results beat the expected swing and 21 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in East Berwickshire (+20.1 pts actual vs +0.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | East Berwickshire | Independent | +20.1 pts | +0.4 pts | +19.6 pts |
| 2022 | Hawick and Denholm | Independent | +19.1 pts | +0.4 pts | +18.6 pts |
| 2022 | Selkirkshire | Independent | +15.2 pts | +0.4 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2022 | Galashiels and District | Independent | -14.1 pts | +0.4 pts | -14.5 pts |
| 2022 | Kelso and District | Liberal Democrats | +15.1 pts | +1.6 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2022 | Galashiels and District | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -10.6 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2022 | Hawick and Hermitage | Independent | -7.7 pts | +0.4 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2022 | East Berwickshire | Conservative | -17.7 pts | -10.6 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2022 | Leaderdale and Melrose | Independent | -6.6 pts | +0.4 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2022 | Hawick and Hermitage | SNP | +5.6 pts | -0.4 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2022 | Tweeddale West | Green | +11.7 pts | +5.8 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Jedburgh and District | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -10.6 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Selkirkshire | Conservative | -15.9 pts | -10.6 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2022 | Tweeddale East | Liberal Democrats | -3.7 pts | +1.6 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2022 | Tweeddale West | Conservative | -15.7 pts | -10.6 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Berwickshire | SNP | +4.6 pts | -0.4 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Galashiels and District | SNP | +4.4 pts | -0.4 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2022 | Kelso and District | Conservative | -6.0 pts | -10.6 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2022 | Tweeddale West | Liberal Democrats | +6.1 pts | +1.6 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2022 | Tweeddale East | Conservative | -15.1 pts | -10.6 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2022 | Kelso and District | Green | +10.2 pts | +5.8 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2022 | Kelso and District | Labour | +6.8 pts | +2.4 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2022 | East Berwickshire | Green | +2.0 pts | +5.8 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2022 | Jedburgh and District | SNP | +3.4 pts | -0.4 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Galashiels and District | Liberal Democrats | +5.1 pts | +1.6 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2022 | Hawick and Denholm | Conservative | -7.1 pts | -10.6 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2022 | Selkirkshire | Green | +2.5 pts | +5.8 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Jedburgh and District | Green | +2.7 pts | +5.8 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Leaderdale and Melrose | Conservative | -7.6 pts | -10.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Hawick and Denholm | Green | +3.1 pts | +5.8 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Berwickshire | Green | +3.1 pts | +5.8 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Hawick and Hermitage | Conservative | -8.0 pts | -10.6 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | East Berwickshire | Labour | -0.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Berwickshire | Conservative | -13.0 pts | -10.6 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Leaderdale and Melrose | SNP | +1.9 pts | -0.4 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | East Berwickshire | SNP | +1.6 pts | -0.4 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Berwickshire | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | +1.6 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Leaderdale and Melrose | Liberal Democrats | +3.3 pts | +1.6 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Tweeddale East | SNP | -1.9 pts | -0.4 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Tweeddale West | SNP | +1.1 pts | -0.4 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Tweeddale East | Independent | +1.8 pts | +0.4 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Selkirkshire | Labour | +1.9 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Hawick and Denholm | Labour | +2.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Tweeddale West | Labour | +2.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Mid Berwickshire | Labour | +2.2 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Jedburgh and District | Independent | +0.5 pts | +0.4 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Selkirkshire | SNP | -0.4 pts | -0.4 pts | +0.0 pts |