South Ayrshire: wards that bucked the trend
South Ayrshire: in 2022, 16 ward results beat the expected swing and 14 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton (-8.9 pts actual vs +4.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton | Independent | -8.9 pts | +4.5 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2022 | Girvan and South Carrick | Conservative | +1.3 pts | -11.1 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr West | Independent | +16.6 pts | +4.5 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2022 | Girvan and South Carrick | Independent | -7.3 pts | +4.5 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2022 | Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton | Conservative | -1.0 pts | -11.1 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2022 | Prestwick | Independent | +14.2 pts | +4.5 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2022 | Prestwick | Conservative | -20.7 pts | -11.1 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr West | Conservative | -19.7 pts | -11.1 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr North | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -11.1 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2022 | Troon | Labour | +5.5 pts | +1.0 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr West | SNP | -1.5 pts | +2.8 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr North | Independent | +0.2 pts | +4.5 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2022 | Kyle | Conservative | -7.1 pts | -11.1 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2022 | Kyle | Labour | -2.2 pts | +1.0 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Troon | Conservative | -14.2 pts | -11.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Girvan and South Carrick | SNP | +5.5 pts | +2.8 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Troon | SNP | +5.3 pts | +2.8 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton | Labour | +3.0 pts | +1.0 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr East | Independent | +6.5 pts | +4.5 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr East | Labour | -0.8 pts | +1.0 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Girvan and South Carrick | Labour | -0.6 pts | +1.0 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr North | Labour | -0.6 pts | +1.0 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton | SNP | +4.3 pts | +2.8 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr West | Labour | -0.2 pts | +1.0 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Prestwick | Labour | +2.0 pts | +1.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr North | SNP | +2.2 pts | +2.8 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Prestwick | SNP | +3.4 pts | +2.8 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr East | Conservative | -10.6 pts | -11.1 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Ayr East | SNP | +2.6 pts | +2.8 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Kyle | SNP | +3.0 pts | +2.8 pts | +0.1 pts |