South Lanarkshire: wards that bucked the trend
South Lanarkshire: in 2022, 63 ward results beat the expected swing and 33 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Avondale and Stonehouse (+14.9 pts actual vs +2.3 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Avondale and Stonehouse | Independent | +14.9 pts | +2.3 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale South | Labour | -8.9 pts | +2.7 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale North | Independent | -8.8 pts | +2.3 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride West | Conservative | -17.3 pts | -6.6 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton West and Earnock | Liberal Democrats | +9.4 pts | +0.3 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2022 | Larkhall | Labour | -6.1 pts | +2.7 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton South | Labour | +10.6 pts | +2.7 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale South | Independent | +9.9 pts | +2.3 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale East | SNP | +7.9 pts | +1.3 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2022 | Avondale and Stonehouse | Labour | -3.7 pts | +2.7 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride East | SNP | -5.0 pts | +1.3 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2022 | Larkhall | Conservative | -1.2 pts | -6.6 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride East | Green | +5.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale North | Conservative | -1.3 pts | -6.6 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale North | SNP | +6.5 pts | +1.3 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride West | SNP | -3.8 pts | +1.3 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton West and Earnock | Labour | -2.2 pts | +2.7 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Avondale and Stonehouse | Conservative | -10.9 pts | -6.6 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale North | Labour | +7.0 pts | +2.7 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride South | SNP | -2.8 pts | +1.3 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride South | Liberal Democrats | +4.0 pts | +0.3 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton North and East | SNP | +4.9 pts | +1.3 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Bothwell and Uddingston | Liberal Democrats | -3.3 pts | +0.3 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Avondale and Stonehouse | SNP | -2.1 pts | +1.3 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale South | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -6.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Avondale and Stonehouse | Green | +3.4 pts | +0.1 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride Central South | SNP | -2.0 pts | +1.3 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Blantyre | Conservative | -3.4 pts | -6.6 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang West | Labour | +5.9 pts | +2.7 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton West and Earnock | Conservative | -9.8 pts | -6.6 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Rutherglen Central and North | SNP | -1.8 pts | +1.3 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride West | Labour | +5.8 pts | +2.7 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride Central North | Labour | +5.7 pts | +2.7 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale East | Labour | +5.5 pts | +2.7 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride Central South | Labour | +5.5 pts | +2.7 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton South | SNP | +4.1 pts | +1.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Bothwell and Uddingston | SNP | +4.1 pts | +1.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Blantyre | Labour | +0.2 pts | +2.7 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Bothwell and Uddingston | Green | +2.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Rutherglen Central and North | Conservative | -4.2 pts | -6.6 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale South | SNP | +3.6 pts | +1.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale West | Labour | +5.0 pts | +2.7 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang West | Green | +2.3 pts | +0.1 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale East | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -6.6 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang East | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -6.6 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride East | Conservative | -4.5 pts | -6.6 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton North and East | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | +0.3 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton South | Conservative | -8.7 pts | -6.6 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Rutherglen South | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | +0.3 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride West | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | +0.3 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Bothwell and Uddingston | Labour | +4.4 pts | +2.7 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride East | Labour | +1.1 pts | +2.7 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang West | Conservative | -8.2 pts | -6.6 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton North and East | Independent | +0.8 pts | +2.3 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale West | Green | +1.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Rutherglen Central and North | Labour | +4.0 pts | +2.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride East | Independent | +3.6 pts | +2.3 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Rutherglen Central and North | Green | +1.1 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale West | Conservative | -7.7 pts | -6.6 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Bothwell and Uddingston | Conservative | -7.7 pts | -6.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang East | Labour | +3.7 pts | +2.7 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton West and Earnock | Green | +1.0 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton North and East | Conservative | -7.5 pts | -6.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride South | Green | +0.9 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Rutherglen South | Labour | +3.6 pts | +2.7 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang East | SNP | +0.4 pts | +1.3 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang East | Green | +0.9 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Blantyre | SNP | +2.0 pts | +1.3 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale West | SNP | +2.0 pts | +1.3 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang West | Liberal Democrats | +1.0 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Larkhall | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride South | Labour | +3.3 pts | +2.7 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Rutherglen Central and North | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride Central South | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride Central South | Conservative | -6.1 pts | -6.6 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride South | Conservative | -6.1 pts | -6.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride Central North | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale South | Green | +0.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Larkhall | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Rutherglen South | SNP | +0.8 pts | +1.3 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang West | SNP | +1.7 pts | +1.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Rutherglen South | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -6.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton West and Earnock | SNP | +1.6 pts | +1.3 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride Central North | SNP | +1.6 pts | +1.3 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale East | Green | +0.3 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride Central South | Green | -0.2 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.5 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Larkhall | SNP | +1.5 pts | +1.3 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale East | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride East | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale West | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Hamilton North and East | Labour | +2.6 pts | +2.7 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Clydesdale South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Cambuslang East | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | +0.3 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Blantyre | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | +0.3 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | East Kilbride Central North | Conservative | -6.6 pts | -6.6 pts | +0.0 pts |