West Dunbartonshire: wards that bucked the trend
West Dunbartonshire: in 2022, 10 ward results beat the expected swing and 10 trailed it. The biggest gap was SNP in Kilpatrick (-4.2 pts actual vs +2.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kilpatrick | SNP | -4.2 pts | +2.4 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2022 | Clydebank Central | Labour | +13.3 pts | +8.1 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2022 | Leven | West Dunbartonshire Community Party | -5.5 pts | -1.0 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2022 | Dumbarton | SNP | +6.2 pts | +2.4 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Lomond | SNP | -0.7 pts | +2.4 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Clydebank Central | SNP | +5.3 pts | +2.4 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Clydebank Central | Conservative | -1.0 pts | -3.6 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Lomond | Conservative | -6.1 pts | -3.6 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Lomond | Labour | +5.7 pts | +8.1 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Clydebank Waterfront | Labour | +6.1 pts | +8.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Dumbarton | Labour | +9.8 pts | +8.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Dumbarton | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -3.6 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Leven | Labour | +6.5 pts | +8.1 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Kilpatrick | Labour | +6.6 pts | +8.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Leven | Green | +1.8 pts | +0.4 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Clydebank Waterfront | SNP | +3.7 pts | +2.4 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Kilpatrick | Conservative | -2.4 pts | -3.6 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Clydebank Waterfront | Conservative | -2.9 pts | -3.6 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Leven | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -3.6 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Leven | SNP | +2.5 pts | +2.4 pts | +0.1 pts |