West Lothian: wards that bucked the trend
West Lothian: in 2022, 19 ward results beat the expected swing and 25 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Linlithgow (-22.1 pts actual vs -7.3 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Linlithgow | Conservative | -22.1 pts | -7.3 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2022 | Linlithgow | Liberal Democrats | +15.1 pts | +2.5 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2022 | East Livingston and East Calder | Labour | -10.4 pts | -0.6 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2022 | Bathgate | SNP | +7.2 pts | +0.4 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2022 | Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh | Labour | +6.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2022 | Fauldhouse and the Breich Valley | Labour | -7.2 pts | -0.6 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2022 | Fauldhouse and the Breich Valley | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -7.3 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2022 | Linlithgow | Labour | +4.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2022 | Linlithgow | SNP | -4.8 pts | +0.4 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2022 | Fauldhouse and the Breich Valley | SNP | +5.5 pts | +0.4 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Linlithgow | Green | +6.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2022 | Armadale and Blackridge | Conservative | -3.3 pts | -7.3 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2022 | Whitburn and Blackburn | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -7.3 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2022 | Armadale and Blackridge | SNP | -3.4 pts | +0.4 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Bathgate | Conservative | -3.8 pts | -7.3 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2022 | East Livingston and East Calder | Conservative | -4.3 pts | -7.3 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Bathgate | Labour | +2.4 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Whitburn and Blackburn | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | +2.5 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston South | Labour | -3.1 pts | -0.6 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Armadale and Blackridge | Independent | +3.9 pts | +1.4 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Armadale and Blackridge | Liberal Democrats | +0.0 pts | +2.5 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Fauldhouse and the Breich Valley | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | +2.5 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston South | SNP | -1.9 pts | +0.4 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -7.3 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston South | Liberal Democrats | +0.5 pts | +2.5 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston North | SNP | +2.4 pts | +0.4 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh | Green | +0.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston North | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston North | Labour | +1.2 pts | -0.6 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Bathgate | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Whitburn and Blackburn | Labour | +0.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Fauldhouse and the Breich Valley | Green | +1.4 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2022 | East Livingston and East Calder | Liberal Democrats | +3.7 pts | +2.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Armadale and Blackridge | Labour | +0.5 pts | -0.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | East Livingston and East Calder | SNP | -0.4 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston North | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -7.3 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston South | Green | +1.9 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston North | Green | +1.9 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Whitburn and Blackburn | SNP | -0.0 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Bathgate | Green | +2.2 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Livingston South | Conservative | -7.7 pts | -7.3 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh | SNP | +0.2 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | East Livingston and East Calder | Green | +2.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.2 pts |