Psephology.AI

    May Seat Projections

    Set how much each party's vote moves and see the seats and control that follow, council by council.

    Start from the last result: Each ward's last scheduled result, measured as the gap between the winner and every other party.

    Apply the changes: Each party's share moves by the points you set. A challenger takes the ward when its moved share passes the holder's.

    Count the seats: Seats not up keep their current party. Each ward that changes hands moves one seat.

    Call control: A party with more than half the seats has a majority; otherwise no overall control.

    All insights

    Insight 12

    May Seat Projections

    Set how much each party's vote moves and see the seats and control that follow, council by council.

    Provisional, next elections 2027 onwards

    For every council due to vote, each ward's last result is moved by the changes you choose (or the latest by-election trend) to project who wins each ward, the new seat totals and whether control changes.

    Choose a council

    Pick a year and a council with wards due to vote. Then set how much each party's vote moves and see the seats that follow.

    What the report does

    A projection page per council: vote-change sliders, projected seats and control, and the wards that would change hands.

    How it's built

    1. 1

      Start from the last result

      Each ward's last scheduled result, measured as the gap between the winner and every other party.

    2. 2

      Apply the changes

      Each party's share moves by the points you set. A challenger takes the ward when its moved share passes the holder's.

    3. 3

      Count the seats

      Seats not up keep their current party. Each ward that changes hands moves one seat.

    4. 4

      Call control

      A party with more than half the seats has a majority; otherwise no overall control.

    How to read it (and how not to)

    • • Multi-seat wards count as one seat, so changes in all-out elections are understated.
    • • Uniform change: real swings vary by ward and local candidates matter.
    • • Parties that did not stand last time are not added.
    • • Boundary changes since the last election are not yet adjusted for.

    What it reads

    • • Each ward's last scheduled local result since 2022
    • • Current council make-up
    • • Latest by-election trend (optional)

    What you get back

    • • Projected seats and control per council
    • • Wards changing hands with their margin

    Readiness

    • Ward targets (Insight 11)

      Used directly.

    • Seats per ward

      Would let multi-seat wards count correctly.

    Live figures are held back until these are in place; no estimated numbers are shown in the meantime.