Psephology.AI

    Notional Results

    What past elections would have looked like on today's boundaries, so changes are measured like for like.

    Use published notionals: For Parliament we use the published re-working of 2019 onto the 2024 seats rather than our own estimate.

    Compare with what happened: Each seat's notional winner is set against the party that won it in 2024.

    Council wards: Old wards are linked to new ones only where a change is recorded; no ward is matched by guesswork.

    All insights

    Insight 13

    Notional Results

    What past elections would have looked like on today's boundaries, so changes are measured like for like.

    Parliament live; council wards partial

    The 2019 general election on the 650 seats used from 2024, seat by seat, against who actually won in 2024; plus every recorded case of old council wards becoming new ones.

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    What the report does

    Notional 2019 results on the 2024 parliamentary seats with the actual 2024 outcome, and an old-ward to new-ward flow for councils.

    How it's built

    1. 1

      Use published notionals

      For Parliament we use the published re-working of 2019 onto the 2024 seats rather than our own estimate.

    2. 2

      Compare with what happened

      Each seat's notional winner is set against the party that won it in 2024.

    3. 3

      Council wards

      Old wards are linked to new ones only where a change is recorded; no ward is matched by guesswork.

    How to read it (and how not to)

    • • Notional results are estimates of an election that never took place on those boundaries.
    • • Council-ward coverage is limited to councils with recorded boundary changes.

    What it reads

    • • Published notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries
    • • 2024 general election results
    • • Confirmed ward boundary change records

    What you get back

    • • Notional vs actual seat totals
    • • Every seat with notional winner and majority
    • • Old-to-new ward flow by council

    Readiness

    • Parliamentary notionals 2024

      Loaded for all 650 seats.

    • Old council ward maps

      Being loaded; needed for full council notionals.

    Live figures are held back until these are in place; no estimated numbers are shown in the meantime.