Adur: wards that bucked the trend
Adur: in 2024, 22 ward results beat the expected swing and 12 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Southwick Green (+16.5 pts actual vs -11.9 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Southwick Green | Labour | +16.5 pts | -11.9 pts | +28.4 pts |
| 2024 | Cokeham | Labour | +16.4 pts | -11.9 pts | +28.3 pts |
| 2024 | Cokeham | Conservative | -34.9 pts | -15.0 pts | -19.9 pts |
| 2024 | Hillside | Labour | +4.8 pts | -11.9 pts | +16.7 pts |
| 2024 | Mash Barn | Labour | +3.7 pts | -11.9 pts | +15.6 pts |
| 2024 | Widewater | Labour | -27.3 pts | -11.9 pts | -15.4 pts |
| 2024 | Manor | Labour | +3.0 pts | -11.9 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2024 | Marine | Green | -15.8 pts | -1.4 pts | -14.4 pts |
| 2024 | Mash Barn | Conservative | -0.8 pts | -15.0 pts | +14.3 pts |
| 2024 | St Nicolas | Conservative | -28.1 pts | -15.0 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2024 | Manor | Conservative | -3.0 pts | -15.0 pts | +12.0 pts |
| 2024 | Marine | Independent | +13.8 pts | +2.5 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2024 | Southlands | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -15.0 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2024 | Widewater | Green | +8.3 pts | -1.4 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2024 | Widewater | Conservative | -23.5 pts | -15.0 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2024 | Marine | Labour | -3.9 pts | -11.9 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2024 | Churchill | Conservative | -8.7 pts | -15.0 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2024 | Eastbrook | Conservative | -20.9 pts | -15.0 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2024 | Southlands | Liberal Democrats | -5.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2024 | Manor | Green | -7.0 pts | -1.4 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2024 | Peverel | Green | +3.7 pts | -1.4 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2024 | Mash Barn | Green | +3.4 pts | -1.4 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Peverel | Conservative | -10.4 pts | -15.0 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2024 | Hillside | Conservative | -11.3 pts | -15.0 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2024 | St Nicolas | Green | -4.2 pts | -1.4 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2024 | St Mary's | Green | -3.6 pts | -1.4 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Southwick Green | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2024 | Southwick Green | Green | +0.2 pts | -1.4 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Churchill | Green | +0.2 pts | -1.4 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2024 | St Mary's | Conservative | -13.5 pts | -15.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2024 | Southlands | Green | -0.7 pts | -1.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Cokeham | Green | -0.7 pts | -1.4 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Manor | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Southwick Green | Conservative | -14.8 pts | -15.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2022 | St Nicolas | Conservative | +20.2 pts | -3.6 pts | +23.7 pts |
| 2022 | Marine | Independent | -16.7 pts | +0.9 pts | -17.6 pts |
| 2022 | Hillside | Labour | +19.5 pts | +5.3 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2022 | Peverel | Labour | +19.2 pts | +5.3 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2022 | Mash Barn | Labour | +17.5 pts | +5.3 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2022 | Cokeham | Conservative | +8.3 pts | -3.6 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2022 | Widewater | Labour | +15.6 pts | +5.3 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2022 | Eastbrook | Conservative | +6.5 pts | -3.6 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2022 | Southlands | Labour | -4.7 pts | +5.3 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2022 | Cokeham | Labour | -4.5 pts | +5.3 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2022 | Southlands | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | -3.8 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2022 | Marine | Green | +10.3 pts | +1.6 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2022 | Hillside | Conservative | -11.6 pts | -3.6 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2022 | Mash Barn | Conservative | -10.6 pts | -3.6 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2022 | Peverel | Conservative | -10.4 pts | -3.6 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2022 | Manor | Labour | +11.9 pts | +5.3 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2022 | St Mary's | Labour | +11.3 pts | +5.3 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2022 | Cokeham | Green | -3.8 pts | +1.6 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Manor | Conservative | -8.6 pts | -3.6 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Churchill | Labour | +9.5 pts | +5.3 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2022 | St Nicolas | Green | -2.5 pts | +1.6 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2022 | Eastbrook | Labour | +1.7 pts | +5.3 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2022 | Peverel | Green | -1.8 pts | +1.6 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Widewater | Conservative | -6.9 pts | -3.6 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Manor | Green | -1.4 pts | +1.6 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Mash Barn | Green | -1.3 pts | +1.6 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Southlands | Conservative | -1.0 pts | -3.6 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | St Mary's | Conservative | -6.1 pts | -3.6 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Churchill | Green | +4.0 pts | +1.6 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Churchill | Conservative | -6.0 pts | -3.6 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Southwick Green | Liberal Democrats | -6.0 pts | -3.8 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2022 | Southwick Green | Labour | +3.1 pts | +5.3 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2022 | Manor | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | -3.8 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Mash Barn | Liberal Democrats | -5.6 pts | -3.8 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Marine | Labour | +6.4 pts | +5.3 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Southlands | Green | +0.6 pts | +1.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Southwick Green | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -3.6 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Widewater | Green | +1.4 pts | +1.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | St Mary's | Green | +1.4 pts | +1.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | St Nicolas | Green | +36.4 pts | +7.9 pts | +28.6 pts |
| 2021 | Manor | Labour | +18.8 pts | -7.4 pts | +26.1 pts |
| 2021 | Manor | Conservative | -20.3 pts | +4.5 pts | -24.8 pts |
| 2021 | Southlands | Labour | +10.7 pts | -7.4 pts | +18.0 pts |
| 2021 | Marine | Independent | +15.6 pts | -2.2 pts | +17.8 pts |
| 2021 | Southwick Green | Conservative | -12.3 pts | +4.5 pts | -16.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Nicolas | Conservative | -11.9 pts | +4.5 pts | -16.5 pts |
| 2021 | Southwick Green | Labour | +6.7 pts | -7.4 pts | +14.1 pts |
| 2021 | Southlands | Green | -4.8 pts | +7.9 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2021 | Marine | Green | -4.3 pts | +7.9 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2021 | Churchill | Liberal Democrats | -7.8 pts | +2.4 pts | -10.2 pts |
| 2021 | Hillside | Labour | +2.2 pts | -7.4 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Widewater | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.5 pts | -3.6 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2021 | Widewater | Labour | +1.1 pts | -7.4 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2021 | Churchill | Conservative | +12.6 pts | +4.5 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2021 | Eastbrook | Conservative | +12.2 pts | +4.5 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2021 | Southlands | Conservative | -2.7 pts | +4.5 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Mash Barn | Conservative | +11.6 pts | +4.5 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2021 | Churchill | Labour | -0.5 pts | -7.4 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Hillside | Green | +1.3 pts | +7.9 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2021 | St Nicolas | Labour | -13.9 pts | -7.4 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2021 | Eastbrook | Labour | -13.4 pts | -7.4 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Widewater | Liberal Democrats | -3.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hillside | Conservative | -0.3 pts | +4.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2021 | Peverel | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Cokeham | Conservative | +8.1 pts | +4.5 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | St Mary's | Conservative | +0.9 pts | +4.5 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Mash Barn | Green | +4.6 pts | +7.9 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Southwick Green | Liberal Democrats | +5.7 pts | +2.4 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Mash Barn | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | +2.4 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Manor | Green | +5.8 pts | +7.9 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Manor | Liberal Democrats | +4.2 pts | +2.4 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Cokeham | Green | +9.6 pts | +7.9 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | St Mary's | Labour | -5.8 pts | -7.4 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Widewater | Conservative | +6.0 pts | +4.5 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | St Mary's | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | St Mary's | Green | +6.9 pts | +7.9 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Southlands | Liberal Democrats | +1.7 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Cokeham | Labour | -8.0 pts | -7.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Mash Barn | Labour | -7.0 pts | -7.4 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Eastbrook | Green | +7.7 pts | +7.9 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Peverel | Conservative | +4.4 pts | +4.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Marine | Labour | -7.3 pts | -7.4 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2016 | St Mary's | Conservative | -16.6 pts | +6.2 pts | -22.9 pts |
| 2016 | Churchill | Conservative | -15.9 pts | +6.2 pts | -22.1 pts |
| 2016 | Eastbrook | Conservative | +26.4 pts | +6.2 pts | +20.1 pts |
| 2016 | Cokeham | Labour | +16.5 pts | -2.8 pts | +19.3 pts |
| 2016 | Mash Barn | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +14.9 pts | -3.4 pts | +18.3 pts |
| 2016 | Cokeham | Liberal Democrats | -19.1 pts | -1.0 pts | -18.1 pts |
| 2016 | Manor | Conservative | -6.7 pts | +6.2 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2016 | Mash Barn | Conservative | -6.7 pts | +6.2 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2016 | Mash Barn | Liberal Democrats | -13.9 pts | -1.0 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2016 | St Nicolas | Labour | +8.7 pts | -2.8 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2016 | Widewater | Labour | +8.2 pts | -2.8 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2016 | Hillside | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.2 pts | -3.4 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2016 | Southlands | Labour | +8.1 pts | -2.8 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2016 | Eastbrook | Labour | -13.5 pts | -2.8 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2016 | Southwick Green | Conservative | -4.0 pts | +6.2 pts | -10.2 pts |
| 2016 | Southlands | Conservative | -3.7 pts | +6.2 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2016 | Hillside | Labour | +6.8 pts | -2.8 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2016 | St Mary's | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.6 pts | -3.4 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2016 | Marine | Independent | +12.3 pts | +3.1 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2016 | Mash Barn | Labour | +5.7 pts | -2.8 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2016 | Marine | Labour | +5.4 pts | -2.8 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2016 | Eastbrook | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.3 pts | -3.4 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2016 | St Nicolas | Conservative | -0.4 pts | +6.2 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2016 | Manor | Labour | +3.6 pts | -2.8 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2016 | Southwick Green | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | -1.0 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2016 | Widewater | Conservative | +0.4 pts | +6.2 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2016 | Southlands | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -1.0 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2016 | Southwick Green | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.3 pts | -3.4 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2016 | Churchill | Liberal Democrats | -5.6 pts | -1.0 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2016 | Manor | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.9 pts | -3.4 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2016 | Eastbrook | Green | +3.6 pts | -0.7 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2016 | Hillside | Conservative | +10.0 pts | +6.2 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Southwick Green | Labour | +0.8 pts | -2.8 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2016 | Marine | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.9 pts | -3.4 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2016 | St Nicolas | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.5 pts | -3.4 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2016 | St Mary's | Green | -3.5 pts | -0.7 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2016 | Southwick Green | Green | -3.3 pts | -0.7 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2016 | St Nicolas | Green | -3.2 pts | -0.7 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2016 | St Nicolas | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Widewater | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.6 pts | -3.4 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Widewater | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | -1.0 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2016 | Manor | Liberal Democrats | -2.7 pts | -1.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2016 | Peverel | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.0 pts | -3.4 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2016 | Churchill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.9 pts | -3.4 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2016 | Peverel | Labour | -1.6 pts | -2.8 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2016 | Cokeham | Conservative | +5.1 pts | +6.2 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2016 | Peverel | Liberal Democrats | -0.0 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2016 | Southlands | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.2 pts | -3.4 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Cokeham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.5 pts | -3.4 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2016 | Hillside | Green | -1.4 pts | -0.7 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2016 | Peverel | Conservative | +6.6 pts | +6.2 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2016 | St Mary's | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -1.0 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Hillside | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -1.0 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Marine | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -1.0 pts | -0.1 pts |