Arun: wards that bucked the trend
Arun: in 2019, 32 ward results beat the expected swing and 32 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Aldwick East (+55.2 pts actual vs +4.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Aldwick East | Independent | +55.2 pts | +4.7 pts | +50.5 pts |
| 2019 | Yapton | Conservative | -50.5 pts | -8.6 pts | -41.9 pts |
| 2019 | Brookfield | Liberal Democrats | +47.7 pts | +13.7 pts | +33.9 pts |
| 2019 | Courtwick with Toddington | Conservative | +24.9 pts | -8.6 pts | +33.5 pts |
| 2019 | Courtwick with Toddington | Liberal Democrats | -12.7 pts | +13.7 pts | -26.5 pts |
| 2019 | Pevensey | Independent | -21.5 pts | +4.7 pts | -26.2 pts |
| 2019 | Rustington West | Liberal Democrats | +39.6 pts | +13.7 pts | +25.9 pts |
| 2019 | Middleton-on-Sea | Liberal Democrats | -11.4 pts | +13.7 pts | -25.2 pts |
| 2019 | Felpham East | Conservative | +16.1 pts | -8.6 pts | +24.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hotham | Liberal Democrats | -5.7 pts | +13.7 pts | -19.5 pts |
| 2019 | Beach | Liberal Democrats | -5.3 pts | +13.7 pts | -19.0 pts |
| 2019 | Pagham | Conservative | -27.3 pts | -8.6 pts | -18.7 pts |
| 2019 | Aldwick East | Conservative | -25.8 pts | -8.6 pts | -17.1 pts |
| 2019 | Aldwick West | Conservative | -25.3 pts | -8.6 pts | -16.7 pts |
| 2019 | River | Conservative | +8.1 pts | -8.6 pts | +16.7 pts |
| 2019 | FERRING | Conservative | +7.6 pts | -8.6 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2019 | Beach | Conservative | +6.8 pts | -8.6 pts | +15.5 pts |
| 2019 | Orchard | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | +13.7 pts | -14.1 pts |
| 2019 | Brookfield | Conservative | -20.3 pts | -8.6 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2019 | Pevensey | Labour | -10.0 pts | +1.4 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2019 | Rustington East | Conservative | +2.7 pts | -8.6 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2019 | Brookfield | Labour | -9.8 pts | +1.4 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Orchard | Labour | -9.2 pts | +1.4 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Arundel & Walberton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.3 pts | -10.9 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2019 | Rustington West | Conservative | -19.1 pts | -8.6 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2019 | Felpham East | Liberal Democrats | +3.6 pts | +13.7 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2019 | Angmering & Findon | Conservative | -0.3 pts | -8.6 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2019 | Orchard | Independent | +13.0 pts | +4.7 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Barnham | Conservative | -0.5 pts | -8.6 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Bersted | Liberal Democrats | +21.4 pts | +13.7 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Barnham | Green | +7.3 pts | -0.3 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Angmering & Findon | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.2 pts | -10.9 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Courtwick with Toddington | Labour | +8.0 pts | +1.4 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Middleton-on-Sea | Conservative | -15.1 pts | -8.6 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Pagham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.2 pts | -10.9 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hotham | Labour | -4.7 pts | +1.4 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Arundel & Walberton | Conservative | -14.0 pts | -8.6 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2019 | River | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.8 pts | -10.9 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Arundel & Walberton | Labour | -3.2 pts | +1.4 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hotham | Conservative | -4.2 pts | -8.6 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Angmering & Findon | Liberal Democrats | +9.5 pts | +13.7 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Marine | Independent | +8.5 pts | +4.7 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Rustington East | Labour | -2.5 pts | +1.4 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Felpham West | Liberal Democrats | +17.4 pts | +13.7 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Orchard | Conservative | -12.0 pts | -8.6 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Bersted | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -8.6 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Marine | Conservative | -11.9 pts | -8.6 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | East Preston | Labour | +4.5 pts | +1.4 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Aldwick West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.8 pts | -10.9 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Beach | Labour | -1.5 pts | +1.4 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Aldwick West | Liberal Democrats | +16.6 pts | +13.7 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2019 | FERRING | Labour | -1.0 pts | +1.4 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Rustington East | Liberal Democrats | +16.1 pts | +13.7 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Bersted | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.5 pts | -10.9 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | River | Liberal Democrats | +15.6 pts | +13.7 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Felpham West | Conservative | -7.0 pts | -8.6 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Marine | Labour | +2.6 pts | +1.4 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | East Preston | Conservative | -9.9 pts | -8.6 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Rustington West | Labour | +0.5 pts | +1.4 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Yapton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.7 pts | -10.9 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Pevensey | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -8.6 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | River | Labour | +0.9 pts | +1.4 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Barnham | Labour | +1.5 pts | +1.4 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Angmering & Findon | Labour | +1.5 pts | +1.4 pts | +0.2 pts |