Ashfield: wards that bucked the trend
Ashfield: in 2019, 16 ward results beat the expected swing and 24 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Leamington (-52.1 pts actual vs -21.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Leamington | Labour | -52.1 pts | -21.1 pts | -31.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hucknall North | Conservative | -30.6 pts | -6.8 pts | -23.8 pts |
| 2019 | The Dales | Labour | -38.7 pts | -21.1 pts | -17.6 pts |
| 2019 | Central and New Cross | Labour | -38.7 pts | -21.1 pts | -17.5 pts |
| 2019 | Carsic | Labour | -38.6 pts | -21.1 pts | -17.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hucknall South | Labour | -3.9 pts | -21.1 pts | +17.2 pts |
| 2019 | Summit | Labour | -38.3 pts | -21.1 pts | -17.2 pts |
| 2019 | Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood | Conservative | -21.7 pts | -6.8 pts | -14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsway | Labour | -34.9 pts | -21.1 pts | -13.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hucknall Central | Labour | -8.0 pts | -21.1 pts | +13.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hucknall West | Labour | -10.1 pts | -21.1 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hucknall West | Conservative | +3.0 pts | -6.8 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2019 | Selston | Independent | +6.1 pts | -3.2 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Underwood | Labour | -13.0 pts | -21.1 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood | Labour | -28.8 pts | -21.1 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Larwood | Labour | -13.6 pts | -21.1 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hucknall Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.7 pts | -9.5 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Summit | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.6 pts | -9.5 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hucknall South | Conservative | -1.2 pts | -6.8 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Carsic | Conservative | -12.4 pts | -6.8 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Jacksdale | Labour | -26.6 pts | -21.1 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey Hill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.2 pts | -9.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey Hill | Conservative | -11.4 pts | -6.8 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ashfields | Labour | -16.6 pts | -21.1 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Huthwaite & Brierley | Labour | -25.5 pts | -21.1 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Annesley & Kirkby Woodhouse | Labour | -25.4 pts | -21.1 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey Hill | Labour | -17.1 pts | -21.1 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | St Mary's | Conservative | -10.8 pts | -6.8 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Kirkby Cross & Portland | Labour | -17.3 pts | -21.1 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Selston | Labour | -17.4 pts | -21.1 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hucknall North | Labour | -17.7 pts | -21.1 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Underwood | Conservative | -10.0 pts | -6.8 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Annesley & Kirkby Woodhouse | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.3 pts | -9.5 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | St Mary's | Labour | -18.9 pts | -21.1 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Stanton Hill & Teversal | Labour | -19.5 pts | -21.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Larwood | Conservative | -8.2 pts | -6.8 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Huthwaite & Brierley | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -6.8 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hucknall Central | Conservative | -5.8 pts | -6.8 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Skegby | Labour | -21.9 pts | -21.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Ashfields | Conservative | -7.3 pts | -6.8 pts | -0.5 pts |