Barking and Dagenham: wards that bucked the trend
Barking and Dagenham: in 2018, 15 ward results beat the expected swing and 16 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Heath (-4.0 pts actual vs +8.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Heath | Labour | -4.0 pts | +8.2 pts | -12.1 pts |
| 2018 | Village | Labour | -2.0 pts | +8.2 pts | -10.2 pts |
| 2018 | River | Labour | -1.6 pts | +8.2 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2018 | Chadwell Heath | Conservative | +21.0 pts | +11.4 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2018 | LONGBRIDGE | Conservative | +2.0 pts | +11.4 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2018 | Abbey | Conservative | +2.9 pts | +11.4 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2018 | LONGBRIDGE | Labour | +16.2 pts | +8.2 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2018 | Thames | Labour | +16.0 pts | +8.2 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2018 | Heath | Conservative | +18.5 pts | +11.4 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2018 | Mayesbrook | Labour | +14.5 pts | +8.2 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2018 | Valence | Labour | +14.0 pts | +8.2 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2018 | Thames | Conservative | +6.4 pts | +11.4 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2018 | River | Conservative | +16.1 pts | +11.4 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Becontree | Labour | +12.2 pts | +8.2 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Gascoigne | Labour | +4.3 pts | +8.2 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2018 | Mayesbrook | Conservative | +15.2 pts | +11.4 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2018 | Abbey | Labour | +11.9 pts | +8.2 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Valence | Conservative | +8.1 pts | +11.4 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Alibon | Conservative | +14.4 pts | +11.4 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2018 | Alibon | Labour | +5.2 pts | +8.2 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Gascoigne | Conservative | +9.0 pts | +11.4 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Parsloes | Labour | +5.9 pts | +8.2 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Whalebone | Labour | +6.0 pts | +8.2 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Goresbrook | Conservative | +13.4 pts | +11.4 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Whalebone | Conservative | +9.6 pts | +11.4 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Becontree | Conservative | +9.8 pts | +11.4 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Chadwell Heath | Labour | +9.6 pts | +8.2 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Goresbrook | Labour | +7.0 pts | +8.2 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Eastbury | Labour | +9.2 pts | +8.2 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Eastbury | Conservative | +11.5 pts | +11.4 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Parsloes | Conservative | +11.4 pts | +11.4 pts | -0.0 pts |