Psephology.AI

    Basingstoke and Deane: wards that bucked the trend

    Basingstoke and Deane: in 2022, 65 ward results beat the expected swing and 38 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Eastrop & Grove (+5.7 pts actual vs -13.8 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Basingstoke and Deane: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2022Eastrop & GroveConservative+5.7 pts-13.8 pts+19.5 pts
    2022Sherborne St John & RooksdownLabour+15.8 pts-2.6 pts+18.4 pts
    2022Whitchurch, Overton and LaverstokeB and D IND+23.5 pts+5.6 pts+17.9 pts
    2022Tadley North, Kingsclere and BaughurstLiberal Democrats+20.3 pts+5.2 pts+15.1 pts
    2022Tadley North, Kingsclere & BaughurstLiberal Democrats+20.3 pts+5.2 pts+15.1 pts
    2022Sherborne St John and RooksdownLabour+12.1 pts-2.6 pts+14.6 pts
    2022Winklebury & ManydownLabour+11.9 pts-2.6 pts+14.5 pts
    2022BramleyConservative-27.9 pts-13.8 pts-14.1 pts
    2022Hatch Warren & BeggarwoodLiberal Democrats-8.5 pts+5.2 pts-13.8 pts
    2022Brighton HillConservative-0.1 pts-13.8 pts+13.7 pts
    2022Hatch Warren and BeggarwoodConservative-27.5 pts-13.8 pts-13.7 pts
    2022Basing & Upton GreyLabour+10.3 pts-2.6 pts+12.9 pts
    2022Basing and Upton GreyLabour+10.3 pts-2.6 pts+12.9 pts
    2022Brighton HillLabour-15.0 pts-2.6 pts-12.4 pts
    2022Oakley and The CandoversLiberal Democrats+17.5 pts+5.2 pts+12.3 pts
    2022Eastrop & GroveLiberal Democrats-7.0 pts+5.2 pts-12.2 pts
    2022BramleyB and D IND+17.1 pts+5.6 pts+11.5 pts
    2022PopleyConservative-3.4 pts-13.8 pts+10.5 pts
    2022ChinehamLabour+7.8 pts-2.6 pts+10.4 pts
    2022Sherborne St John & RooksdownConservative-23.7 pts-13.8 pts-9.9 pts
    2022Tadley and PamberLiberal Democrats+15.1 pts+5.2 pts+9.8 pts
    2022Tadley & PamberLiberal Democrats+15.1 pts+5.2 pts+9.8 pts
    2022Whitchurch, Overton & LaverstokeBasingstoke & Deane Independents-8.3 pts+1.1 pts-9.4 pts
    2022Winklebury and ManydownConservative-4.5 pts-13.8 pts+9.3 pts
    2022Kempshott and BuckskinLabour+6.6 pts-2.6 pts+9.2 pts
    2022PopleyB and D IND+14.8 pts+5.6 pts+9.2 pts
    2022Oakley & The CandoversConservative-22.6 pts-13.8 pts-8.8 pts
    2022PopleyLiberal Democrats-3.5 pts+5.2 pts-8.7 pts
    2022Oakley & The CandoversLiberal Democrats+13.6 pts+5.2 pts+8.4 pts
    2022NordenB and D IND+13.8 pts+5.6 pts+8.2 pts
    2022Kempshott & BuckskinLabour+5.6 pts-2.6 pts+8.1 pts
    2022Brookvale & Kings FurlongConservative-5.9 pts-13.8 pts+7.9 pts
    2022Brookvale and Kings FurlongConservative-5.9 pts-13.8 pts+7.9 pts
    2022NordenConservative-5.9 pts-13.8 pts+7.9 pts
    2022Tadley North, Kingsclere and BaughurstConservative-6.0 pts-13.8 pts+7.9 pts
    2022Tadley North, Kingsclere & BaughurstConservative-6.0 pts-13.8 pts+7.9 pts
    2022Oakley and The CandoversHAMPS IND+6.4 pts-1.0 pts+7.4 pts
    2022EvingarLiberal Democrats+12.6 pts+5.2 pts+7.4 pts
    2022Hatch Warren and BeggarwoodLiberal Democrats-2.1 pts+5.2 pts-7.4 pts
    2022Eastrop and GroveConservative-6.5 pts-13.8 pts+7.3 pts
    2022ChinehamGreen+8.6 pts+1.5 pts+7.1 pts
    2022Winklebury and ManydownLabour+4.3 pts-2.6 pts+6.9 pts
    2022Brookvale & Kings FurlongLiberal Democrats-1.5 pts+5.2 pts-6.7 pts
    2022Brookvale and Kings FurlongLiberal Democrats-1.5 pts+5.2 pts-6.7 pts
    2022South HamConservative-7.1 pts-13.8 pts+6.7 pts
    2022Brookvale & Kings FurlongLabour+4.0 pts-2.6 pts+6.6 pts
    2022Brookvale and Kings FurlongLabour+4.0 pts-2.6 pts+6.6 pts
    2022Sherborne St John & RooksdownLiberal Democrats+11.7 pts+5.2 pts+6.5 pts
    2022Basing and Upton GreyLiberal Democrats-1.1 pts+5.2 pts-6.3 pts
    2022Basing & Upton GreyLiberal Democrats-1.1 pts+5.2 pts-6.3 pts
    2022Brighton HillLiberal Democrats+11.6 pts+5.2 pts+6.3 pts
    2022Hatch Warren & BeggarwoodLabour-8.6 pts-2.6 pts-6.0 pts
    2022Kempshott & BuckskinLiberal Democrats-0.7 pts+5.2 pts-5.9 pts
    2022Tadley and PamberHAMPS IND+4.8 pts-1.0 pts+5.8 pts
    2022Kempshott and BuckskinLiberal Democrats-0.5 pts+5.2 pts-5.7 pts
    2022Eastrop and GroveLabour+3.1 pts-2.6 pts+5.7 pts
    2022Brighton HillHAMPS IND+4.4 pts-1.0 pts+5.4 pts
    2022Hatch Warren & BeggarwoodHampshire Independents-4.6 pts+0.6 pts-5.2 pts
    2022Hatch Warren and BeggarwoodHAMPS IND-6.2 pts-1.0 pts-5.2 pts
    2022South HamHAMPS IND+3.9 pts-1.0 pts+4.9 pts
    2022Sherborne St John and RooksdownLiberal Democrats+10.1 pts+5.2 pts+4.8 pts
    2022Brookvale and Kings FurlongHAMPS IND+3.3 pts-1.0 pts+4.3 pts
    2022NordenLiberal Democrats+0.9 pts+5.2 pts-4.3 pts
    2022Whitchurch, Overton & LaverstokeLiberal Democrats+9.4 pts+5.2 pts+4.2 pts
    2022Tadley & PamberHampshire Independents+4.8 pts+0.6 pts+4.2 pts
    2022Sherborne St John and RooksdownConservative-17.6 pts-13.8 pts-3.8 pts
    2022Whitchurch, Overton & LaverstokeLabour+1.1 pts-2.6 pts+3.7 pts
    2022Eastrop & GroveLabour+1.1 pts-2.6 pts+3.7 pts
    2022Kempshott and BuckskinConservative-10.2 pts-13.8 pts+3.6 pts
    2022EvingarConservative-17.4 pts-13.8 pts-3.6 pts
    2022Eastrop and GroveLiberal Democrats+1.7 pts+5.2 pts-3.5 pts
    2022Whitchurch, Overton and LaverstokeLabour+0.9 pts-2.6 pts+3.5 pts
    2022Whitchurch, Overton and LaverstokeLiberal Democrats+8.6 pts+5.2 pts+3.4 pts
    2022Hatch Warren & BeggarwoodConservative-17.2 pts-13.8 pts-3.4 pts
    2022Basing and Upton GreyConservative-10.5 pts-13.8 pts+3.3 pts
    2022Basing & Upton GreyConservative-10.5 pts-13.8 pts+3.3 pts
    2022Oakley and The CandoversConservative-17.1 pts-13.8 pts-3.3 pts
    2022Kempshott & BuckskinConservative-10.6 pts-13.8 pts+3.2 pts
    2022Winklebury & ManydownConservative-10.7 pts-13.8 pts+3.1 pts
    2022Kempshott & BuckskinGreen+4.5 pts+1.5 pts+2.9 pts
    2022Brookvale & Kings FurlongHampshire Independents+3.3 pts+0.6 pts+2.7 pts
    2022Whitchurch, Overton & LaverstokeConservative-16.3 pts-13.8 pts-2.5 pts
    2022Kempshott and BuckskinHAMPS IND+1.5 pts-1.0 pts+2.5 pts
    2022PopleyHAMPS IND-3.4 pts-1.0 pts-2.4 pts
    2022Basing and Upton GreyHAMPS IND+1.3 pts-1.0 pts+2.3 pts
    2022ChinehamConservative-11.6 pts-13.8 pts+2.2 pts
    2022Eastrop and GroveHAMPS IND+1.2 pts-1.0 pts+2.2 pts
    2022NordenLabour-4.7 pts-2.6 pts-2.1 pts
    2022NordenHAMPS IND-3.0 pts-1.0 pts-2.0 pts
    2022Whitchurch, Overton and LaverstokeConservative-11.9 pts-13.8 pts+1.9 pts
    2022PopleyLabour-4.5 pts-2.6 pts-1.9 pts
    2022Winklebury and ManydownLiberal Democrats+3.3 pts+5.2 pts-1.9 pts
    2022South HamLabour-0.8 pts-2.6 pts+1.8 pts
    2022South HamLiberal Democrats+4.0 pts+5.2 pts-1.2 pts
    2022Winklebury & ManydownLiberal Democrats+4.0 pts+5.2 pts-1.2 pts
    2022Tadley & PamberConservative-14.9 pts-13.8 pts-1.1 pts
    2022Tadley and PamberConservative-14.9 pts-13.8 pts-1.1 pts
    2022Kempshott and BuckskinGreen+2.6 pts+1.5 pts+1.0 pts
    2022Kempshott & BuckskinHampshire Independents+1.3 pts+0.6 pts+0.7 pts
    2022Eastrop and GroveWEP+0.4 pts+1.0 pts-0.6 pts
    2022Eastrop & GroveWomen`s Equality Party-0.5 pts+0.0 pts-0.6 pts
    2022Hatch Warren and BeggarwoodLabour-3.0 pts-2.6 pts-0.5 pts
    2022ChinehamLiberal Democrats+5.2 pts+5.2 pts+0.0 pts