Bath & North East Somerset: wards that bucked the trend
Bath & North East Somerset: in 2023, 51 ward results beat the expected swing and 74 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in TIMSBURY (+56.6 pts actual vs -0.3 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | TIMSBURY | Liberal Democrats | +56.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +56.9 pts |
| 2023 | Publow and Whitchurch | Liberal Democrats | +55.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +55.3 pts |
| 2023 | Publow and Whitchurch | Conservative | -35.6 pts | -0.6 pts | -35.0 pts |
| 2023 | Oldfield Park | Liberal Democrats | -30.4 pts | -0.3 pts | -30.1 pts |
| 2023 | Lambridge | Green | +32.8 pts | +3.7 pts | +29.1 pts |
| 2023 | Clutton and Farmborough | Green | +29.9 pts | +3.7 pts | +26.2 pts |
| 2023 | Keynsham North | Liberal Democrats | +23.9 pts | -0.3 pts | +24.1 pts |
| 2023 | Chew Valley | Liberal Democrats | +23.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +23.4 pts |
| 2023 | Lambridge | Liberal Democrats | -22.4 pts | -0.3 pts | -22.1 pts |
| 2023 | Clutton and Farmborough | Liberal Democrats | -20.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -20.6 pts |
| 2023 | Walcot | Liberal Democrats | -20.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -20.6 pts |
| 2023 | Twerton | Conservative | +19.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +20.4 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton Redfield | Conservative | -20.6 pts | -0.6 pts | -20.0 pts |
| 2023 | Chew Valley | Conservative | -18.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -18.2 pts |
| 2023 | HIGH LITTLETON | Liberal Democrats | -16.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -16.6 pts |
| 2023 | Keynsham North | Labour | -12.3 pts | +4.2 pts | -16.5 pts |
| 2023 | Publow and Whitchurch | Green | -12.2 pts | +3.7 pts | -15.8 pts |
| 2023 | Keynsham North | Conservative | -15.3 pts | -0.6 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2023 | Odd Down | Green | -11.0 pts | +3.7 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2023 | Saltford | Conservative | -14.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -14.3 pts |
| 2023 | Twerton | Labour | -10.0 pts | +4.2 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2023 | KEYNSHAM EAST | Liberal Democrats | -14.4 pts | -0.3 pts | -14.1 pts |
| 2023 | Twerton | Liberal Democrats | -13.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton Redfield | Independent | +10.6 pts | -1.6 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2023 | Publow and Whitchurch | Labour | -7.3 pts | +4.2 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2023 | MENDIP | Conservative | -11.7 pts | -0.6 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2023 | Combe Down | Liberal Democrats | +10.7 pts | -0.3 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2023 | Clutton and Farmborough | Conservative | -11.4 pts | -0.6 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2023 | PEASEDOWN | Labour | +14.8 pts | +4.2 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2023 | Newbridge | Liberal Democrats | -10.2 pts | -0.3 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2023 | Westmoreland | Liberal Democrats | -10.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton North | Independent | +8.0 pts | -1.6 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2023 | Chew Valley | Green | -5.5 pts | +3.7 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2023 | HIGH LITTLETON | Labour | +13.1 pts | +4.2 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2023 | TIMSBURY | Labour | -4.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2023 | MENDIP | Liberal Democrats | +8.3 pts | -0.3 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2023 | Saltford | Liberal Democrats | -8.8 pts | -0.3 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2023 | PAULTON | Labour | +12.5 pts | +4.2 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton North | Conservative | -8.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton Redfield | Labour | +12.2 pts | +4.2 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2023 | Odd Down | Conservative | +7.4 pts | -0.6 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton Redfield | Green | -4.2 pts | +3.7 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2023 | KEYNSHAM EAST | Labour | +12.1 pts | +4.2 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2023 | PEASEDOWN | Independent | -9.3 pts | -1.6 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2023 | PEASEDOWN | Green | -3.8 pts | +3.7 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2023 | Keynsham South | Labour | +11.5 pts | +4.2 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2023 | Moorlands | Conservative | +6.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2023 | Walcot | Labour | +10.7 pts | +4.2 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton North | Labour | -2.1 pts | +4.2 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2023 | Weston | Conservative | +5.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2023 | WESTFIELD | Green | -2.3 pts | +3.7 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton North | Green | -2.3 pts | +3.7 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2023 | Bathavon North | Conservative | +5.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton North | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2023 | MENDIP | Labour | -1.2 pts | +4.2 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Moorlands | Liberal Democrats | -5.3 pts | -0.3 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2023 | Bathavon South | Conservative | +4.4 pts | -0.6 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2023 | Kingsmead | Liberal Democrats | -5.2 pts | -0.3 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2023 | Oldfield Park | Conservative | +4.3 pts | -0.6 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2023 | Moorlands | Labour | -0.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2023 | Combe Down | Green | -1.0 pts | +3.7 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2023 | Combe Down | Labour | -0.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2023 | Kingsmead | Conservative | +4.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2023 | Widcombe and Lyncombe | Liberal Democrats | -4.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2023 | HIGH LITTLETON | Conservative | +4.0 pts | -0.6 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2023 | Weston | Liberal Democrats | -4.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2023 | WESTFIELD | Conservative | +3.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2023 | Moorlands | Green | -0.8 pts | +3.7 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2023 | RADSTOCK | Green | +8.0 pts | +3.7 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2023 | HIGH LITTLETON | Green | -0.2 pts | +3.7 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Walcot | Green | +7.6 pts | +3.7 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Bathavon South | Green | -0.0 pts | +3.7 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2023 | Oldfield Park | Green | -0.0 pts | +3.7 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2023 | Keynsham South | Conservative | -4.1 pts | -0.6 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2023 | Westmoreland | Green | +7.2 pts | +3.7 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2023 | WESTFIELD | Labour | +7.7 pts | +4.2 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2023 | WESTFIELD | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Newbridge | Labour | +7.6 pts | +4.2 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Bathavon South | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Bathwick | Conservative | +2.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2023 | Walcot | Conservative | +2.6 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2023 | Bathwick | Liberal Democrats | -3.4 pts | -0.3 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2023 | Chew Valley | Labour | +1.1 pts | +4.2 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2023 | Weston | Green | +0.6 pts | +3.7 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2023 | Keynsham South | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2023 | Lambridge | Conservative | +2.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2023 | Westmoreland | Conservative | +2.0 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2023 | TIMSBURY | Conservative | +1.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2023 | PAULTON | Conservative | +1.8 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2023 | Kingsmead | Labour | +1.9 pts | +4.2 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Midsomer Norton Redfield | Liberal Democrats | +2.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Saltford | Green | +1.7 pts | +3.7 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2023 | PAULTON | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2023 | Clutton and Farmborough | Labour | +2.4 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2023 | Bathavon South | Labour | +2.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Westmoreland | Independent | -3.3 pts | -1.6 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Odd Down | Labour | +2.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Bathavon North | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2023 | Kingsmead | Green | +5.2 pts | +3.7 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Saltford | Labour | +5.7 pts | +4.2 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Oldfield Park | Labour | +2.7 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Odd Down | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Bathavon North | Labour | +2.9 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Lansdown | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2023 | Widcombe and Lyncombe | Green | +2.6 pts | +3.7 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Widcombe and Lyncombe | Labour | +3.2 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Newbridge | Green | +2.7 pts | +3.7 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Weston | Labour | +3.3 pts | +4.2 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2023 | PEASEDOWN | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2023 | Bathwick | Green | +4.5 pts | +3.7 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2023 | Lansdown | Conservative | -1.3 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Bathwick | Labour | +3.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2023 | KEYNSHAM EAST | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Newbridge | Conservative | -0.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2023 | Lambridge | Labour | +3.7 pts | +4.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2023 | RADSTOCK | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2023 | Lansdown | Labour | +3.7 pts | +4.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2023 | Lansdown | Green | +3.3 pts | +3.7 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Twerton | Green | +3.3 pts | +3.7 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Combe Down | Conservative | -0.2 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2023 | RADSTOCK | Conservative | -1.0 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Bathavon North | Green | +3.4 pts | +3.7 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Widcombe and Lyncombe | Conservative | -0.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Keynsham South | Green | +3.6 pts | +3.7 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2023 | PEASEDOWN | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.0 pts |