Bedford: wards that bucked the trend
Bedford: in 2019, 58 ward results beat the expected swing and 36 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Oakley (+55.5 pts actual vs +7.0 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Oakley | Liberal Democrats | +55.5 pts | +7.0 pts | +48.6 pts |
| 2019 | Wootton | Conservative | +14.2 pts | -13.8 pts | +28.1 pts |
| 2019 | Clapham | Conservative | +14.1 pts | -13.8 pts | +28.0 pts |
| 2019 | Elstow and Stewartby | Liberal Democrats | +32.9 pts | +7.0 pts | +25.9 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston West | Conservative | +7.5 pts | -13.8 pts | +21.3 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston Central & East | Labour | +17.9 pts | -3.2 pts | +21.1 pts |
| 2019 | Sharnbrook | Independent | +21.6 pts | +1.1 pts | +20.5 pts |
| 2019 | De Parys | Liberal Democrats | +26.9 pts | +7.0 pts | +19.9 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston Rural | Liberal Democrats | +25.0 pts | +7.0 pts | +18.0 pts |
| 2019 | Riseley | Labour | +14.6 pts | -3.2 pts | +17.8 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston South | Labour | +14.2 pts | -3.2 pts | +17.4 pts |
| 2019 | Riseley | Conservative | +2.6 pts | -13.8 pts | +16.4 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Labour | -18.7 pts | -3.2 pts | -15.6 pts |
| 2019 | Wilshamstead | Conservative | +1.0 pts | -13.8 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston Rural | Conservative | -27.4 pts | -13.8 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsbrook | Liberal Democrats | +20.3 pts | +7.0 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston West | Labour | +9.5 pts | -3.2 pts | +12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Cauldwell | Labour | +9.0 pts | -3.2 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2019 | Wyboston | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -13.8 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2019 | Newnham | Liberal Democrats | +18.5 pts | +7.0 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bromham and Biddenham | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -13.8 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Liberal Democrats | -3.9 pts | +7.0 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Conservative | -24.6 pts | -13.8 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Harrold | Liberal Democrats | -3.6 pts | +7.0 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston North | Conservative | -3.6 pts | -13.8 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2019 | Brickhill | Liberal Democrats | +16.4 pts | +7.0 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Wootton | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | +7.0 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2019 | Harpur | Labour | +5.8 pts | -3.2 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston Central & East | Conservative | -5.3 pts | -13.8 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2019 | Newnham | Conservative | -5.7 pts | -13.8 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Eastcotts | Liberal Democrats | +14.8 pts | +7.0 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2019 | De Parys | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -13.8 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Queens Park | Conservative | -21.4 pts | -13.8 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2019 | Wilshamstead | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | +7.0 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Wyboston | Liberal Democrats | +14.2 pts | +7.0 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Putnoe | Liberal Democrats | +14.1 pts | +7.0 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Harrold | Conservative | -6.9 pts | -13.8 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2019 | Queens Park | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | +7.0 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston South | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | +7.0 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Goldington | Liberal Democrats | +12.8 pts | +7.0 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Elstow and Stewartby | Labour | -8.8 pts | -3.2 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Harpur | Conservative | -8.5 pts | -13.8 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Sharnbrook | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | +7.0 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Putnoe | Conservative | -8.8 pts | -13.8 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston North | Liberal Democrats | +2.0 pts | +7.0 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Wootton | Labour | +1.8 pts | -3.2 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Brickhill | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -13.8 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Clapham | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | +7.0 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Newnham | Green | +6.5 pts | +1.7 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2019 | Harpur | Independent | +5.8 pts | +1.1 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Brickhill | Labour | -7.6 pts | -3.2 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Oakley | Conservative | -18.1 pts | -13.8 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Oakley | Labour | +1.1 pts | -3.2 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston West | Liberal Democrats | +2.8 pts | +7.0 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Goldington | Labour | +0.9 pts | -3.2 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsbrook | Conservative | -9.8 pts | -13.8 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Wootton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.7 pts | -4.7 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Great Barford | Green | -2.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Cauldwell | Conservative | -10.2 pts | -13.8 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Clapham | Labour | -6.8 pts | -3.2 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston North | Labour | +0.3 pts | -3.2 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Sharnbrook | Conservative | -10.5 pts | -13.8 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Sharnbrook | Labour | -6.5 pts | -3.2 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | De Parys | Labour | -6.3 pts | -3.2 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Goldington | Conservative | -10.7 pts | -13.8 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Newnham | Labour | -5.8 pts | -3.2 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston Rural | Labour | -5.8 pts | -3.2 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Putnoe | Labour | -5.8 pts | -3.2 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Wilshamstead | Labour | -0.6 pts | -3.2 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Elstow and Stewartby | Conservative | -16.2 pts | -13.8 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Bromham and Biddenham | Labour | -5.5 pts | -3.2 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Harrold | Green | +4.0 pts | +1.7 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Harpur | Liberal Democrats | +8.8 pts | +7.0 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Eastcotts | Conservative | -12.1 pts | -13.8 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Brickhill | Green | +0.0 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Queens Park | Labour | -4.8 pts | -3.2 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Bromham and Biddenham | Liberal Democrats | +8.3 pts | +7.0 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Putnoe | Green | +0.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston South | Conservative | -12.6 pts | -13.8 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Green | +3.0 pts | +1.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsbrook | Labour | -2.0 pts | -3.2 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Great Barford | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | +7.0 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Great Barford | Conservative | -12.8 pts | -13.8 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Queens Park | Green | +0.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cauldwell | Liberal Democrats | +7.9 pts | +7.0 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Goldington | Green | +2.6 pts | +1.7 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Goldington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.5 pts | -4.7 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Independent | +1.9 pts | +1.1 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Cauldwell | Green | +2.4 pts | +1.7 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Eastcotts | Labour | -2.7 pts | -3.2 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston North | Green | +1.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Riseley | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +7.0 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Kempston Central & East | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +7.0 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsbrook | Green | +1.8 pts | +1.7 pts | +0.1 pts |