Boston: wards that bucked the trend
Boston: in 2019, 15 ward results beat the expected swing and 19 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in COASTAL (-37.0 pts actual vs +5.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | COASTAL | Conservative | -37.0 pts | +5.6 pts | -42.7 pts |
| 2019 | Swineshead and Holland Fen | Conservative | +36.6 pts | +5.6 pts | +31.0 pts |
| 2019 | West | Conservative | -24.5 pts | +5.6 pts | -30.1 pts |
| 2019 | St Thomas' | Independent | +39.1 pts | +11.9 pts | +27.2 pts |
| 2019 | Fishtoft | Conservative | +32.4 pts | +5.6 pts | +26.8 pts |
| 2019 | Skirbeck | Labour | -20.7 pts | +2.0 pts | -22.7 pts |
| 2019 | Wyberton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.6 pts | -23.4 pts | +21.9 pts |
| 2019 | Fishtoft | Independent | -7.1 pts | +11.9 pts | -19.0 pts |
| 2019 | Station | Conservative | -8.9 pts | +5.6 pts | -14.5 pts |
| 2019 | Fenside | Conservative | -6.5 pts | +5.6 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2019 | Wyberton | Conservative | -6.3 pts | +5.6 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2019 | Station | Labour | +13.4 pts | +2.0 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2019 | Trinity | Independent | +2.8 pts | +11.9 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2019 | Staniland | Independent | +20.4 pts | +11.9 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2019 | FIVE VILLAGE | Conservative | +13.8 pts | +5.6 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Kirton & Frampton | Labour | +10.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Trinity | Labour | +9.8 pts | +2.0 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2019 | OLD LEAKE & WRANGLE | Conservative | +13.2 pts | +5.6 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Fenside | Labour | -5.1 pts | +2.0 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2019 | Fenside | Independent | +18.6 pts | +11.9 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2019 | Kirton & Frampton | Independent | +6.1 pts | +11.9 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Staniland | Labour | +7.6 pts | +2.0 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2019 | COASTAL | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.4 pts | -23.4 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2019 | FIVE VILLAGE | Labour | -2.9 pts | +2.0 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Wyberton | Independent | +7.6 pts | +11.9 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Staniland | Conservative | +1.4 pts | +5.6 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Skirbeck | Conservative | +1.4 pts | +5.6 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Trinity | Conservative | +9.8 pts | +5.6 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Kirton & Frampton | Conservative | +2.7 pts | +5.6 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | St Thomas' | Labour | -0.6 pts | +2.0 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Fishtoft | Labour | -0.3 pts | +2.0 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Station | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -21.3 pts | -23.4 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Wyberton | Labour | +0.3 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | West | Labour | +1.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.6 pts |