Brentwood: wards that bucked the trend
Brentwood: in 2023, 22 ward results beat the expected swing and 14 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Brentwood South (+31.3 pts actual vs +2.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Brentwood South | Liberal Democrats | +31.3 pts | +2.1 pts | +29.2 pts |
| 2023 | Brentwood South | Labour | -26.5 pts | -3.7 pts | -22.8 pts |
| 2023 | South Weald | Liberal Democrats | +18.9 pts | +2.1 pts | +16.8 pts |
| 2023 | Brizes & Doddinghurst | Liberal Democrats | -13.5 pts | +2.1 pts | -15.6 pts |
| 2023 | Hutton East | Conservative | -19.2 pts | -4.0 pts | -15.2 pts |
| 2023 | South Weald | Conservative | -18.7 pts | -4.0 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2023 | Brentwood North | Liberal Democrats | +16.2 pts | +2.1 pts | +14.1 pts |
| 2023 | Hutton South | Labour | +7.7 pts | -3.7 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hutton North | Labour | +7.7 pts | -3.7 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2023 | Brizes & Doddinghurst | Conservative | +6.0 pts | -4.0 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2023 | Ingatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing | Conservative | +4.4 pts | -4.0 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2023 | Brentwood North | Labour | -11.7 pts | -3.7 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2023 | Hutton East | Liberal Democrats | +9.5 pts | +2.1 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2023 | Hutton South | Liberal Democrats | -5.2 pts | +2.1 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hutton North | Liberal Democrats | -5.2 pts | +2.1 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2023 | Ingatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing | Liberal Democrats | -4.2 pts | +2.1 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hutton North | Conservative | -9.4 pts | -4.0 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Hutton South | Conservative | -9.4 pts | -4.0 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Brizes & Doddinghurst | Labour | +1.2 pts | -3.7 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2023 | South Weald | Labour | -0.2 pts | -3.7 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Ingatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing | Labour | -0.2 pts | -3.7 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Pilgrims Hatch | Labour | -0.7 pts | -3.7 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2023 | Herongate, Ingrave and West Horndon | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -4.0 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2023 | Brentwood South | Conservative | -6.7 pts | -4.0 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2023 | Brentwood North | Conservative | -6.7 pts | -4.0 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2023 | Herongate, Ingrave and West Horndon | Labour | -1.3 pts | -3.7 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2023 | Shenfield | Labour | -1.7 pts | -3.7 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2023 | Brentwood North | Green | +3.0 pts | +1.0 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2023 | Pilgrims Hatch | Liberal Democrats | +3.5 pts | +2.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Brentwood West | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | +2.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Shenfield | Conservative | -2.6 pts | -4.0 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Shenfield | Liberal Democrats | +3.3 pts | +2.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2023 | Pilgrims Hatch | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -4.0 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Herongate, Ingrave and West Horndon | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | +2.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Brentwood West | Conservative | -3.7 pts | -4.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Shenfield | Green | +1.0 pts | +1.0 pts | +0.1 pts |