Brighton & Hove: wards that bucked the trend
Brighton & Hove: in 2019, 37 ward results beat the expected swing and 53 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Hove Park (+15.6 pts actual vs -1.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Hove Park | Labour | +15.6 pts | -1.4 pts | +17.0 pts |
| 2019 | Central Hove | Labour | +13.3 pts | -1.4 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2019 | Brunswick & Adelaide | Green | +25.2 pts | +10.8 pts | +14.3 pts |
| 2019 | Rottingdean Coastal | Conservative | -21.7 pts | -8.1 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2019 | Withdean | Green | +24.4 pts | +10.8 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2019 | North Portslade | Labour | +11.8 pts | -1.4 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2019 | South Portslade | Labour | +10.1 pts | -1.4 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2019 | Woodingdean | Labour | +9.1 pts | -1.4 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2019 | Preston Park | Green | +21.2 pts | +10.8 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hove Park | Conservative | -17.9 pts | -8.1 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hangleton & Knoll | Green | +1.3 pts | +10.8 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Moulsecoomb & Bevendean | Labour | +8.1 pts | -1.4 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Central Hove | Liberal Democrats | -8.8 pts | +0.4 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Patcham | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -8.1 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2019 | North Portslade | Green | +2.2 pts | +10.8 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2019 | Preston Park | Labour | -10.0 pts | -1.4 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2019 | Regency | Green | +19.4 pts | +10.8 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2019 | Wish | Conservative | +0.1 pts | -8.1 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hove Park | Green | +2.8 pts | +10.8 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hollingdean and Stanmer | Conservative | -0.1 pts | -8.1 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Moulsecoomb & Bevendean | Conservative | -0.2 pts | -8.1 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hangleton & Knoll | Labour | +6.5 pts | -1.4 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2019 | St Peter's and North Laine | Labour | -9.1 pts | -1.4 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Goldsmid | Conservative | -15.8 pts | -8.1 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Woodingdean | Green | +3.2 pts | +10.8 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Withdean | Labour | -8.7 pts | -1.4 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2019 | Central Hove | Green | +3.8 pts | +10.8 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Withdean | Conservative | -15.0 pts | -8.1 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2019 | Brunswick & Adelaide | Labour | -8.1 pts | -1.4 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2019 | South Portslade | Green | +4.5 pts | +10.8 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2019 | St Peter's and North Laine | Green | +17.1 pts | +10.8 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Regency | Labour | -7.6 pts | -1.4 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hanover & Elm Grove | Labour | -7.5 pts | -1.4 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hollingdean and Stanmer | Green | +4.9 pts | +10.8 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hangleton & Knoll | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -8.1 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hangleton & Knoll | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.1 pts | -2.7 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2019 | South Portslade | Conservative | -13.3 pts | -8.1 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | East Brighton | Labour | -6.4 pts | -1.4 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2019 | North Portslade | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -8.1 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Rottingdean Coastal | Liberal Democrats | +5.4 pts | +0.4 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Westbourne | Labour | +3.2 pts | -1.4 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Brunswick & Adelaide | Conservative | -12.7 pts | -8.1 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | East Brighton | Conservative | -3.8 pts | -8.1 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Westbourne | Conservative | -12.2 pts | -8.1 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | South Portslade | Liberal Democrats | +4.5 pts | +0.4 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Moulsecoomb & Bevendean | Green | +6.8 pts | +10.8 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Queen's Park | Green | +7.2 pts | +10.8 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Westbourne | Green | +7.5 pts | +10.8 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Rottingdean Coastal | Labour | +1.8 pts | -1.4 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2019 | South Portslade | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.9 pts | -2.7 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2019 | East Brighton | Green | +7.7 pts | +10.8 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Regency | Liberal Democrats | -2.4 pts | +0.4 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Goldsmid | Labour | +1.4 pts | -1.4 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Wish | Green | +8.2 pts | +10.8 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hanover & Elm Grove | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -8.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Westbourne | Liberal Democrats | +3.0 pts | +0.4 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | St Peter's and North Laine | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | +0.4 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Central Hove | Conservative | -10.5 pts | -8.1 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Preston Park | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | +0.4 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hove Park | Liberal Democrats | +2.9 pts | +0.4 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Rottingdean Coastal | Green | +8.4 pts | +10.8 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | St Peter's and North Laine | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -8.1 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Queen's Park | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | +0.4 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Goldsmid | Green | +9.1 pts | +10.8 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Patcham | Labour | -3.1 pts | -1.4 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Brunswick & Adelaide | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | +0.4 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hanover & Elm Grove | Green | +9.5 pts | +10.8 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hollingdean and Stanmer | Liberal Democrats | +1.7 pts | +0.4 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Westbourne | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.5 pts | -2.7 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Wish | Labour | -2.6 pts | -1.4 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Queen's Park | Conservative | -6.9 pts | -8.1 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | North Portslade | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.6 pts | -2.7 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Central Hove | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.6 pts | -2.7 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hanover & Elm Grove | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2019 | North Portslade | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | +0.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Wish | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.4 pts | -2.7 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hollingdean and Stanmer | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.4 pts | -2.7 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hangleton & Knoll | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hollingdean and Stanmer | Labour | -2.0 pts | -1.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Woodingdean | Conservative | -8.6 pts | -8.1 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | East Brighton | Liberal Democrats | -0.0 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Patcham | Green | +10.5 pts | +10.8 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Regency | Conservative | -8.4 pts | -8.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Preston Park | Conservative | -7.8 pts | -8.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Queen's Park | Labour | -1.1 pts | -1.4 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Brunswick & Adelaide | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.5 pts | -2.7 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Goldsmid | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.0 pts | -2.7 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hove Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.9 pts | -2.7 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Withdean | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Wish | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | +0.4 pts | +0.2 pts |