Broadland: wards that bucked the trend
Broadland: in 2019, 34 ward results beat the expected swing and 39 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Horsford and Felthorpe (+39.0 pts actual vs +8.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Horsford and Felthorpe | Liberal Democrats | +39.0 pts | +8.1 pts | +30.9 pts |
| 2019 | Aylsham | Liberal Democrats | +36.4 pts | +8.1 pts | +28.3 pts |
| 2019 | Aylsham | Conservative | -28.4 pts | -3.7 pts | -24.8 pts |
| 2019 | PLUMSTEAD | Green | +27.6 pts | +3.8 pts | +23.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hevingham | Liberal Democrats | +29.8 pts | +8.1 pts | +21.6 pts |
| 2019 | Buxton | Conservative | +13.6 pts | -3.7 pts | +17.2 pts |
| 2019 | Blofield With South Walsham | Conservative | +12.5 pts | -3.7 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2019 | Taverham North | Liberal Democrats | -5.8 pts | +8.1 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2019 | Sprowston Central | Liberal Democrats | -5.2 pts | +8.1 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2019 | Horsford and Felthorpe | Conservative | -17.0 pts | -3.7 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hellesdon North West | Labour | +14.8 pts | +1.7 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2019 | Sprowston Central | Labour | +14.6 pts | +1.7 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2019 | Brundall | Liberal Democrats | -4.4 pts | +8.1 pts | -12.5 pts |
| 2019 | Wroxham | Liberal Democrats | -3.4 pts | +8.1 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hevingham | Conservative | -14.7 pts | -3.7 pts | -11.0 pts |
| 2019 | Brundall | Conservative | -14.5 pts | -3.7 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Drayton North | Conservative | +7.2 pts | -3.7 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Marshes | Conservative | +6.1 pts | -3.7 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2019 | Eynesford | Conservative | +5.9 pts | -3.7 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Old Catton and Sprowston West | Labour | -7.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2019 | Great Witchingham | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | +8.1 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hellesdon North West | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | +8.1 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Burlingham | Conservative | -12.8 pts | -3.7 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Burlingham | Labour | -7.3 pts | +1.7 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2019 | Eynesford | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | +8.1 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2019 | Thorpe St. Andrew North West | Conservative | +5.3 pts | -3.7 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2019 | Drayton South | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | +8.1 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2019 | Horsford and Felthorpe | Labour | -6.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Thorpe St Andrew South East | Labour | -6.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Reepham | Conservative | -11.5 pts | -3.7 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Brundall | Labour | +9.3 pts | +1.7 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hellesdon South East | Labour | -5.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Sprowston East | Labour | -5.0 pts | +1.7 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Spixworth with St Faiths | Liberal Democrats | +14.8 pts | +8.1 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2019 | Taverham North | Conservative | +2.8 pts | -3.7 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Drayton South | Conservative | +2.1 pts | -3.7 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | ACLE | Labour | +7.5 pts | +1.7 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Coltishall | Conservative | +2.0 pts | -3.7 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Sprowston Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.7 pts | -10.2 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Old Catton and Sprowston West | Conservative | +1.7 pts | -3.7 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Drayton North | Liberal Democrats | +13.4 pts | +8.1 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Burlingham | Liberal Democrats | +2.9 pts | +8.1 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Thorpe St Andrew South East | Liberal Democrats | +2.9 pts | +8.1 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Reepham | Liberal Democrats | +3.0 pts | +8.1 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Sprowston East | Conservative | +1.3 pts | -3.7 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hellesdon South East | Conservative | -8.6 pts | -3.7 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Blofield With South Walsham | Labour | +6.3 pts | +1.7 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Sprowston East | Liberal Democrats | +3.7 pts | +8.1 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Wroxham | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -3.7 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2019 | PLUMSTEAD | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -3.7 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Taverham South | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -3.7 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Wroxham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.2 pts | -10.2 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Thorpe St. Andrew North West | Liberal Democrats | +4.1 pts | +8.1 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Wroxham | Labour | -2.3 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Great Witchingham | Labour | +5.7 pts | +1.7 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Thorpe St. Andrew North West | Labour | -2.0 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Marshes | Liberal Democrats | +11.8 pts | +8.1 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Aylsham | Labour | -1.9 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Buxton | Liberal Democrats | +11.7 pts | +8.1 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Spixworth with St Faiths | Conservative | -6.7 pts | -3.7 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Buxton | Labour | -0.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hellesdon North West | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -3.7 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | ACLE | Conservative | -1.6 pts | -3.7 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Thorpe St Andrew South East | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -3.7 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Blofield With South Walsham | Liberal Democrats | +9.8 pts | +8.1 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Coltishall | Labour | +3.1 pts | +1.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hellesdon South East | Liberal Democrats | +6.9 pts | +8.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Sprowston Central | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -3.7 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Great Witchingham | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -3.7 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Taverham South | Liberal Democrats | +7.6 pts | +8.1 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Coltishall | Liberal Democrats | +7.8 pts | +8.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Marshes | Labour | +1.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Old Catton and Sprowston West | Liberal Democrats | +8.0 pts | +8.1 pts | -0.2 pts |