Bromley: wards that bucked the trend
Bromley: in 2018, 48 ward results beat the expected swing and 48 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Cray Valley East (-16.0 pts actual vs +7.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Cray Valley East | Liberal Democrats | -16.0 pts | +7.1 pts | -23.1 pts |
| 2018 | Biggin Hill | Conservative | -21.0 pts | +1.8 pts | -22.8 pts |
| 2018 | Crystal Palace | Liberal Democrats | -14.0 pts | +7.1 pts | -21.2 pts |
| 2018 | Darwin | Conservative | +21.9 pts | +1.8 pts | +20.1 pts |
| 2018 | Copers Cope | Liberal Democrats | +25.9 pts | +7.1 pts | +18.8 pts |
| 2018 | Copers Cope | Conservative | -15.1 pts | +1.8 pts | -16.9 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley Town | Liberal Democrats | +22.1 pts | +7.1 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2018 | Biggin Hill | Liberal Democrats | -7.6 pts | +7.1 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2018 | Crystal Palace | Labour | +17.9 pts | +3.7 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2018 | Chelsfield and Pratts Bottom | Conservative | +15.9 pts | +1.8 pts | +14.1 pts |
| 2018 | Chelsfield and Pratts Bottom | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -26.6 pts | -12.6 pts | -14.1 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley West | Conservative | +14.5 pts | +1.8 pts | +12.7 pts |
| 2018 | Mottingham and Chislehurst North | Labour | +14.9 pts | +3.7 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley East | Labour | +14.5 pts | +3.7 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2018 | Clock House | Conservative | -8.2 pts | +1.8 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -21.1 pts | -12.6 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley East | Conservative | +10.3 pts | +1.8 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.6 pts | -12.6 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2018 | Copers Cope | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.5 pts | -12.6 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2018 | Farnborough and Crofton | Conservative | +8.5 pts | +1.8 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley Common and Keston | Conservative | +8.4 pts | +1.8 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley Town | Conservative | -4.7 pts | +1.8 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2018 | Kelsey & Eden Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.4 pts | -12.6 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2018 | Kelsey & Eden Park | Labour | -1.8 pts | +3.7 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2018 | Farnborough and Crofton | Labour | -1.7 pts | +3.7 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2018 | Kelsey & Eden Park | Liberal Democrats | +12.6 pts | +7.1 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2018 | Plaistow and Sundridge | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.2 pts | -12.6 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2018 | Copers Cope | Labour | -1.6 pts | +3.7 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2018 | Biggin Hill | Labour | -1.2 pts | +3.7 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Mottingham and Chislehurst North | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | +7.1 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Kelsey & Eden Park | Conservative | -3.0 pts | +1.8 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2018 | Bickley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.8 pts | -12.6 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Plaistow and Sundridge | Conservative | -2.4 pts | +1.8 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley West | Liberal Democrats | +3.0 pts | +7.1 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2018 | Darwin | Green | +3.3 pts | -0.8 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Clock House | Labour | +7.8 pts | +3.7 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Shortlands | Labour | -0.2 pts | +3.7 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Penge & Cator | Liberal Democrats | +3.2 pts | +7.1 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Hayes and Coney Hall | Conservative | +5.4 pts | +1.8 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Chislehurst | Labour | +0.2 pts | +3.7 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Penge & Cator | Conservative | -1.7 pts | +1.8 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2018 | Plaistow and Sundridge | Liberal Democrats | +3.8 pts | +7.1 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley Town | Labour | +0.5 pts | +3.7 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Chelsfield and Pratts Bottom | Liberal Democrats | +3.9 pts | +7.1 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2018 | Biggin Hill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.4 pts | -12.6 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Chislehurst | Liberal Democrats | +4.3 pts | +7.1 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Farnborough and Crofton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.3 pts | -12.6 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | West Wickham | Labour | +1.0 pts | +3.7 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Copers Cope | Green | -3.6 pts | -0.8 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Petts Wood & Knoll | Labour | +1.0 pts | +3.7 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Mottingham and Chislehurst North | Conservative | +4.3 pts | +1.8 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Farnborough and Crofton | Liberal Democrats | +9.7 pts | +7.1 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Chislehurst | Conservative | +4.3 pts | +1.8 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Darwin | Liberal Democrats | +4.7 pts | +7.1 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Plaistow and Sundridge | Green | -3.3 pts | -0.8 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2018 | West Wickham | Liberal Democrats | +9.5 pts | +7.1 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Hayes and Coney Hall | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.8 pts | -12.6 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Chelsfield and Pratts Bottom | Labour | +6.0 pts | +3.7 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley West | Green | +1.3 pts | -0.8 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Biggin Hill | Green | +1.2 pts | -0.8 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Plaistow and Sundridge | Labour | +5.8 pts | +3.7 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Shortlands | Liberal Democrats | +9.2 pts | +7.1 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Bickley | Green | +1.1 pts | -0.8 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Penge & Cator | Labour | +5.6 pts | +3.7 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Bickley | Liberal Democrats | +8.9 pts | +7.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Crystal Palace | Conservative | +3.4 pts | +1.8 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Chelsfield and Pratts Bottom | Green | +0.8 pts | -0.8 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley West | Independent | -0.8 pts | +0.8 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Clock House | Green | -2.4 pts | -0.8 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Clock House | Liberal Democrats | +8.5 pts | +7.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Bickley | Conservative | +3.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley Common and Keston | Labour | +4.9 pts | +3.7 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Farnborough and Crofton | Green | -2.0 pts | -0.8 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Petts Wood & Knoll | Liberal Democrats | +6.1 pts | +7.1 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Shortlands | Conservative | +2.8 pts | +1.8 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Hayes and Coney Hall | Liberal Democrats | +6.2 pts | +7.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Chislehurst | Green | -0.0 pts | -0.8 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley Common and Keston | Liberal Democrats | +6.4 pts | +7.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley East | Green | -0.2 pts | -0.8 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Petts Wood & Knoll | Conservative | +1.2 pts | +1.8 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2018 | Kelsey & Eden Park | Green | -1.4 pts | -0.8 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2018 | Darwin | Labour | +4.2 pts | +3.7 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | West Wickham | Green | -0.3 pts | -0.8 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | West Wickham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.1 pts | -12.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley Common and Keston | Green | -1.2 pts | -0.8 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Hayes and Coney Hall | Labour | +4.1 pts | +3.7 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Petts Wood & Knoll | Green | -0.6 pts | -0.8 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Mottingham and Chislehurst North | Green | -1.1 pts | -0.8 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley Town | Green | -1.1 pts | -0.8 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Shortlands | Green | -1.1 pts | -0.8 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Crystal Palace | Green | -1.1 pts | -0.8 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | West Wickham | Conservative | +1.9 pts | +1.8 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Penge & Cator | Green | -1.0 pts | -0.8 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Bickley | Labour | +3.8 pts | +3.7 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Cray Valley West | Labour | +3.8 pts | +3.7 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2018 | Hayes and Coney Hall | Green | -0.9 pts | -0.8 pts | -0.0 pts |