Psephology.AI

    Broxbourne: wards that bucked the trend

    Broxbourne: in 2024, 21 ward results beat the expected swing and 19 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Wormley and Turnford (-53.6 pts actual vs -5.5 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Broxbourne: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2024Wormley and TurnfordConservative-53.6 pts-5.5 pts-48.1 pts
    2024Wormley and TurnfordLabour+40.7 pts+4.2 pts+36.5 pts
    2024Goffs OakLiberal Democrats-13.7 pts-1.7 pts-12.0 pts
    2024Goffs OakConservative+6.5 pts-5.5 pts+12.0 pts
    2024Rosedale & Bury GreenLabour-7.8 pts+4.2 pts-11.9 pts
    2024Hoddesdon NorthConservative-16.6 pts-5.5 pts-11.1 pts
    2024Wormley and TurnfordGreen+10.7 pts+0.6 pts+10.0 pts
    2024Rosedale & Bury GreenConservative+3.1 pts-5.5 pts+8.6 pts
    2024Cheshunt NorthConservative+2.2 pts-5.5 pts+7.7 pts
    2024Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthConservative+1.0 pts-5.5 pts+6.5 pts
    2024Waltham CrossLabour-2.3 pts+4.2 pts-6.5 pts
    2024Waltham CrossGreen+7.0 pts+0.6 pts+6.4 pts
    2024Flamstead EndConservative-0.3 pts-5.5 pts+5.2 pts
    2024Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLabour-0.8 pts+4.2 pts-5.0 pts
    2024Cheshunt South and TheobaldsIndependent-5.4 pts-0.6 pts-4.8 pts
    2024Rosedale & Bury GreenGreen-4.1 pts+0.6 pts-4.7 pts
    2024Hoddesdon NorthLabour-3.6 pts+1.1 pts-4.7 pts
    2024Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthGreen-4.0 pts+0.6 pts-4.6 pts
    2024Flamstead EndLabour+0.1 pts+4.2 pts-4.1 pts
    2024Cheshunt South and TheobaldsConservative-1.7 pts-5.5 pts+3.8 pts
    2024Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkConservative-2.3 pts-5.5 pts+3.2 pts
    2024Cheshunt NorthLabour+0.9 pts+4.2 pts-3.2 pts
    2024Wormley and TurnfordLiberal Democrats+0.5 pts-1.7 pts+2.2 pts
    2024Cheshunt NorthGreen-1.4 pts+0.6 pts-2.0 pts
    2024Hoddesdon NorthGreen-1.4 pts+0.6 pts-2.0 pts
    2024Goffs OakLabour+5.9 pts+4.2 pts+1.7 pts
    2024Hoddesdon NorthLiberal Democrats-3.4 pts-1.7 pts-1.7 pts
    2024Waltham CrossConservative-4.0 pts-5.5 pts+1.5 pts
    2024Cheshunt NorthLiberal Democrats-3.1 pts-1.7 pts-1.4 pts
    2024Waltham CrossLiberal Democrats-0.4 pts-1.7 pts+1.3 pts
    2024Cheshunt South and TheobaldsGreen+1.5 pts+0.6 pts+0.9 pts
    2024Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkGreen+1.4 pts+0.6 pts+0.8 pts
    2024Goffs OakGreen+1.4 pts+0.6 pts+0.8 pts
    2024Flamstead EndGreen+1.3 pts+0.6 pts+0.7 pts
    2024Waltham CrossTrade Unionist and Socialist Coalition-0.3 pts+0.4 pts-0.7 pts
    2024Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLiberal Democrats-1.1 pts-1.7 pts+0.6 pts
    2024Flamstead EndTrade Unionist and Socialist Coalition+1.0 pts+0.4 pts+0.6 pts
    2024Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLiberal Democrats-1.2 pts-1.7 pts+0.5 pts
    2024Flamstead EndLiberal Democrats-2.1 pts-1.7 pts-0.4 pts
    2024Cheshunt South and TheobaldsLabour+4.0 pts+4.2 pts-0.2 pts
    2023Cheshunt NorthConservative+11.3 pts-0.2 pts+11.5 pts
    2023Rosedale & Bury GreenLabour+5.7 pts-3.4 pts+9.1 pts
    2023Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthGreen+9.7 pts+1.5 pts+8.2 pts
    2023Goffs OakLiberal Democrats+7.1 pts-0.5 pts+7.6 pts
    2023Wormley and TurnfordLabour+3.4 pts-3.4 pts+6.8 pts
    2023Flamstead EndLabour+1.5 pts-3.4 pts+4.9 pts
    2023Cheshunt NorthLabour-8.3 pts-3.4 pts-4.9 pts
    2023Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthConservative-4.8 pts-0.2 pts-4.6 pts
    2023Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLabour+1.0 pts-3.4 pts+4.4 pts
    2023Cheshunt South and TheobaldsLabour+0.7 pts-3.4 pts+4.1 pts
    2023Wormley and TurnfordConservative-3.7 pts-0.2 pts-3.6 pts
    2023Cheshunt South and TheobaldsGreen-2.0 pts+1.5 pts-3.5 pts
    2023Goffs OakConservative-3.2 pts-0.2 pts-3.1 pts
    2023Rosedale & Bury GreenConservative-3.0 pts-0.2 pts-2.9 pts
    2023Flamstead EndGreen-1.2 pts+1.5 pts-2.7 pts
    2023Rosedale & Bury GreenGreen+4.0 pts+1.5 pts+2.6 pts
    2023Waltham CrossLiberal Democrats+2.0 pts-0.5 pts+2.5 pts
    2023Cheshunt NorthGreen-0.7 pts+1.5 pts-2.1 pts
    2023Cheshunt NorthLiberal Democrats-2.4 pts-0.5 pts-1.8 pts
    2023Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLiberal Democrats-2.3 pts-0.5 pts-1.7 pts
    2023Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkGreen-0.1 pts+1.5 pts-1.5 pts
    2023Goffs OakGreen+0.0 pts+1.5 pts-1.4 pts
    2023Waltham CrossGreen+0.2 pts+1.5 pts-1.2 pts
    2023Waltham CrossLabour-2.3 pts-3.4 pts+1.1 pts
    2023Cheshunt South and TheobaldsIndependent+1.0 pts+0.1 pts+0.9 pts
    2023Hoddesdon NorthGreen+0.6 pts+1.5 pts-0.9 pts
    2023Wormley and TurnfordLiberal Democrats-1.4 pts-0.5 pts-0.8 pts
    2023Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLabour-2.7 pts-3.4 pts+0.7 pts
    2023Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkConservative-0.8 pts-0.2 pts-0.6 pts
    2023Cheshunt South and TheobaldsConservative+0.4 pts-0.2 pts+0.5 pts
    2023Waltham CrossConservative-0.7 pts-0.2 pts-0.5 pts
    2023Goffs OakLabour-3.9 pts-3.4 pts-0.5 pts
    2023Hoddesdon NorthLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts-0.5 pts-0.5 pts
    2023Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLiberal Democrats-0.2 pts-0.5 pts+0.4 pts
    2023Wormley and TurnfordGreen+1.7 pts+1.5 pts+0.3 pts
    2023Flamstead EndConservative-0.3 pts-0.2 pts-0.2 pts
    2023Flamstead EndLiberal Democrats-0.7 pts-0.5 pts-0.1 pts
    2023Hoddesdon NorthConservative-0.2 pts-0.2 pts-0.0 pts
    2022Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLiberal Democrats-8.4 pts+0.0 pts-8.4 pts
    2022Rosedale & Bury GreenLabour+12.0 pts+4.3 pts+7.7 pts
    2022Waltham CrossLabour+11.5 pts+4.3 pts+7.2 pts
    2022Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthConservative-3.9 pts-10.3 pts+6.3 pts
    2022Goffs OakLiberal Democrats+6.3 pts+0.0 pts+6.3 pts
    2022Waltham CrossConservative-16.4 pts-10.3 pts-6.1 pts
    2022Flamstead EndConservative-15.0 pts-10.3 pts-4.8 pts
    2022Flamstead EndLabour-0.4 pts+4.3 pts-4.6 pts
    2022Rosedale & Bury GreenLiberal Democrats-4.5 pts+0.0 pts-4.6 pts
    2022Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthGreen+10.1 pts+5.9 pts+4.2 pts
    2022Wormley and TurnfordLiberal Democrats-4.1 pts+0.0 pts-4.2 pts
    2022Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLiberal Democrats-4.1 pts+0.0 pts-4.1 pts
    2022Goffs OakLabour+0.8 pts+4.3 pts-3.4 pts
    2022Hoddesdon NorthConservative-6.9 pts-10.3 pts+3.3 pts
    2022Cheshunt South and TheobaldsIndependent-3.3 pts-0.1 pts-3.2 pts
    2022Hoddesdon NorthGreen+3.1 pts+5.9 pts-2.8 pts
    2022Cheshunt NorthLabour+7.0 pts+4.3 pts+2.7 pts
    2022Wormley and TurnfordConservative-7.6 pts-10.3 pts+2.7 pts
    2022Rosedale & Bury GreenConservative-12.7 pts-10.3 pts-2.5 pts
    2022Cheshunt South and TheobaldsConservative-7.8 pts-10.3 pts+2.5 pts
    2022Goffs OakConservative-12.6 pts-10.3 pts-2.3 pts
    2022Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLabour+2.1 pts+4.3 pts-2.1 pts
    2022Waltham CrossLiberal Democrats+1.9 pts+0.0 pts+1.8 pts
    2022Wormley and TurnfordLabour+5.8 pts+4.3 pts+1.5 pts
    2022Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLabour+2.9 pts+4.3 pts-1.3 pts
    2022Cheshunt NorthLiberal Democrats-1.2 pts+0.0 pts-1.2 pts
    2022Cheshunt NorthConservative-11.0 pts-10.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2022Cheshunt South and TheobaldsLabour+3.6 pts+4.3 pts-0.7 pts
    2022Rosedale & Bury GreenGreen+5.3 pts+5.9 pts-0.6 pts
    2022Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkConservative-9.8 pts-10.3 pts+0.5 pts
    2022Hoddesdon NorthLiberal Democrats-0.2 pts+0.0 pts-0.3 pts
    2022Hoddesdon NorthLabour+4.1 pts+4.3 pts-0.2 pts
    2021Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthConservative-4.8 pts+5.2 pts-10.0 pts
    2021Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLiberal Democrats-0.4 pts-9.3 pts+8.9 pts
    2021Waltham CrossLabour-5.3 pts+3.3 pts-8.6 pts
    2021Goffs OakConservative+13.6 pts+5.2 pts+8.5 pts
    2021Waltham CrossConservative+13.4 pts+5.2 pts+8.2 pts
    2021Goffs OakLiberal Democrats-17.1 pts-9.3 pts-7.9 pts
    2021Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLabour-4.3 pts+3.3 pts-7.6 pts
    2021Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLabour-3.6 pts+3.3 pts-6.9 pts
    2021Rosedale & Bury GreenLabour-3.4 pts+3.3 pts-6.7 pts
    2021Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLiberal Democrats-3.1 pts-9.3 pts+6.2 pts
    2021Cheshunt NorthLiberal Democrats-14.7 pts-9.3 pts-5.5 pts
    2021Rosedale & Bury GreenLiberal Democrats-4.1 pts-9.3 pts+5.1 pts
    2021Cheshunt NorthConservative+8.9 pts+5.2 pts+3.7 pts
    2021Wormley and TurnfordLiberal Democrats-5.7 pts-9.3 pts+3.6 pts
    2021Hoddesdon NorthConservative+2.4 pts+5.2 pts-2.8 pts
    2021Wormley and TurnfordLabour+0.7 pts+3.3 pts-2.6 pts
    2021Waltham CrossLiberal Democrats-11.9 pts-9.3 pts-2.6 pts
    2021Cheshunt NorthLabour+5.9 pts+3.3 pts+2.6 pts
    2021Flamstead EndConservative+7.7 pts+5.2 pts+2.5 pts
    2021Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkConservative+7.3 pts+5.2 pts+2.1 pts
    2021Hoddesdon NorthLiberal Democrats-7.4 pts-9.3 pts+1.8 pts
    2021Cheshunt South and TheobaldsConservative+7.0 pts+5.2 pts+1.8 pts
    2021Rosedale & Bury GreenConservative+3.5 pts+5.2 pts-1.7 pts
    2021Flamstead EndLabour+2.7 pts+3.3 pts-0.6 pts
    2021Cheshunt South and TheobaldsLabour+3.6 pts+3.3 pts+0.3 pts
    2021Wormley and TurnfordConservative+5.0 pts+5.2 pts-0.2 pts
    2021Goffs OakLabour+3.5 pts+3.3 pts+0.2 pts
    2019Cheshunt South and TheobaldsConservative-13.5 pts-2.0 pts-11.5 pts
    2019Waltham CrossLiberal Democrats-0.1 pts+8.8 pts-8.9 pts
    2019Goffs OakLiberal Democrats+17.5 pts+8.8 pts+8.7 pts
    2019Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLabour+1.6 pts-6.7 pts+8.3 pts
    2019Goffs OakConservative-10.3 pts-2.0 pts-8.2 pts
    2019Cheshunt NorthLiberal Democrats+16.4 pts+8.8 pts+7.6 pts
    2019Cheshunt South and TheobaldsLiberal Democrats+1.5 pts+8.8 pts-7.3 pts
    2019Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLabour+0.1 pts-6.7 pts+6.8 pts
    2019Rosedale & Bury GreenLabour-12.6 pts-6.7 pts-5.9 pts
    2019Hoddesdon NorthConservative+3.6 pts-2.0 pts+5.7 pts
    2019Waltham CrossLabour-1.4 pts-6.7 pts+5.3 pts
    2019Goffs OakLabour-2.3 pts-6.7 pts+4.5 pts
    2019Cheshunt NorthLabour-11.0 pts-6.7 pts-4.3 pts
    2019Flamstead EndLabour-3.0 pts-6.7 pts+3.8 pts
    2019Waltham CrossConservative+1.5 pts-2.0 pts+3.5 pts
    2019Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkConservative+1.4 pts-2.0 pts+3.4 pts
    2019Cheshunt NorthConservative-5.4 pts-2.0 pts-3.4 pts
    2019Cheshunt South and TheobaldsLabour-3.4 pts-6.7 pts+3.4 pts
    2019Flamstead EndLiberal Democrats+5.6 pts+8.8 pts-3.2 pts
    2019Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthConservative-4.8 pts-2.0 pts-2.8 pts
    2019Wormley and TurnfordLabour-4.5 pts-6.7 pts+2.3 pts
    2019Wormley and TurnfordLiberal Democrats+6.7 pts+8.8 pts-2.1 pts
    2019Hoddesdon NorthLiberal Democrats+7.8 pts+8.8 pts-1.0 pts
    2019Rosedale & Bury GreenConservative-2.8 pts-2.0 pts-0.7 pts
    2019Flamstead EndConservative-1.4 pts-2.0 pts+0.6 pts
    2019Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLiberal Democrats+9.2 pts+8.8 pts+0.5 pts
    2019Wormley and TurnfordConservative-2.3 pts-2.0 pts-0.2 pts
    2019Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLiberal Democrats+8.7 pts+8.8 pts-0.1 pts
    2018Waltham CrossConservative-12.6 pts+4.9 pts-17.5 pts
    2018Rosedale & Bury GreenConservative+18.3 pts+4.9 pts+13.4 pts
    2018Cheshunt NorthConservative-8.1 pts+4.9 pts-13.0 pts
    2018Wormley and TurnfordConservative+12.3 pts+4.9 pts+7.3 pts
    2018Goffs OakConservative-2.2 pts+4.9 pts-7.1 pts
    2018Rosedale & Bury GreenLabour+8.7 pts+2.0 pts+6.7 pts
    2018Flamstead EndConservative+11.3 pts+4.9 pts+6.4 pts
    2018Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthConservative+9.7 pts+4.9 pts+4.8 pts
    2018Cheshunt South and TheobaldsConservative+9.6 pts+4.9 pts+4.7 pts
    2018Flamstead EndLabour+6.2 pts+2.0 pts+4.2 pts
    2018Waltham CrossLabour-1.9 pts+2.0 pts-3.9 pts
    2018Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLabour-1.1 pts+2.0 pts-3.1 pts
    2018Cheshunt NorthLabour-0.6 pts+2.0 pts-2.6 pts
    2018Cheshunt South and TheobaldsLabour+4.3 pts+2.0 pts+2.3 pts
    2018Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkConservative+7.2 pts+4.9 pts+2.3 pts
    2018Goffs OakLabour-0.1 pts+2.0 pts-2.1 pts
    2018Hoddesdon NorthConservative+6.5 pts+4.9 pts+1.6 pts
    2018Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLabour+3.2 pts+2.0 pts+1.3 pts
    2018Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkUK Independence Party (UKIP)-16.9 pts-15.9 pts-1.0 pts
    2018Hoddesdon NorthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-16.6 pts-15.9 pts-0.7 pts
    2018Hoddesdon NorthLabour+1.5 pts+2.0 pts-0.5 pts
    2018Wormley and TurnfordLabour+2.3 pts+2.0 pts+0.3 pts
    2018Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthGreen-0.1 pts+0.0 pts-0.1 pts
    2018Goffs OakUK Independence Party (UKIP)-15.9 pts-15.9 pts-0.0 pts
    2016Cheshunt NorthConservative+14.4 pts+0.6 pts+13.8 pts
    2016Waltham CrossLabour+12.7 pts+4.5 pts+8.1 pts
    2016Goffs OakUK Independence Party (UKIP)+3.5 pts-4.6 pts+8.1 pts
    2016Goffs OakLabour-3.2 pts+4.5 pts-7.7 pts
    2016Rosedale & Bury GreenUK Independence Party (UKIP)+2.9 pts-4.6 pts+7.5 pts
    2016Waltham CrossConservative+6.1 pts+0.6 pts+5.5 pts
    2016Rosedale & Bury GreenConservative-4.7 pts+0.6 pts-5.3 pts
    2016Flamstead EndLabour-0.8 pts+4.5 pts-5.3 pts
    2016Cheshunt NorthLabour+9.1 pts+4.5 pts+4.6 pts
    2016Flamstead EndUK Independence Party (UKIP)-0.4 pts-4.6 pts+4.2 pts
    2016Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-0.6 pts-4.6 pts+4.1 pts
    2016Hoddesdon NorthLabour+0.9 pts+4.5 pts-3.6 pts
    2016Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkConservative-3.0 pts+0.6 pts-3.6 pts
    2016Hoddesdon NorthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-1.1 pts-4.6 pts+3.5 pts
    2016Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthConservative-2.6 pts+0.6 pts-3.2 pts
    2016Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkUK Independence Party (UKIP)-1.6 pts-4.6 pts+3.1 pts
    2016Rosedale & Bury GreenLabour+7.1 pts+4.5 pts+2.6 pts
    2016Wormley and TurnfordUK Independence Party (UKIP)-2.4 pts-4.6 pts+2.3 pts
    2016Cheshunt South and TheobaldsUK Independence Party (UKIP)-2.6 pts-4.6 pts+2.1 pts
    2016Cheshunt South and TheobaldsLabour+2.5 pts+4.5 pts-2.0 pts
    2016Wormley and TurnfordConservative-1.4 pts+0.6 pts-2.0 pts
    2016Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLabour+3.2 pts+4.5 pts-1.3 pts
    2016Goffs OakConservative-0.3 pts+0.6 pts-0.9 pts
    2016Wormley and TurnfordLabour+3.7 pts+4.5 pts-0.8 pts
    2016Flamstead EndConservative+1.2 pts+0.6 pts+0.6 pts
    2016Cheshunt South and TheobaldsConservative+0.1 pts+0.6 pts-0.5 pts
    2016Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthGreen-0.0 pts-0.5 pts+0.5 pts
    2016Hoddesdon NorthConservative+0.2 pts+0.6 pts-0.4 pts
    2016Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLabour+4.5 pts+4.5 pts-0.0 pts
    2015Cheshunt South and TheobaldsConservative+4.0 pts+8.3 pts-4.4 pts
    2015Waltham CrossUK Independence Party (UKIP)-6.4 pts-10.3 pts+3.9 pts
    2015Cheshunt South and TheobaldsUK Independence Party (UKIP)-6.5 pts-10.3 pts+3.8 pts
    2015Waltham CrossLabour+6.3 pts+2.6 pts+3.7 pts
    2015Waltham CrossConservative+11.1 pts+8.3 pts+2.7 pts
    2015Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkUK Independence Party (UKIP)-12.8 pts-10.3 pts-2.5 pts
    2015Flamstead EndUK Independence Party (UKIP)-12.6 pts-10.3 pts-2.3 pts
    2015Cheshunt NorthConservative+6.1 pts+8.3 pts-2.3 pts
    2015Rosedale & Bury GreenConservative+6.1 pts+8.3 pts-2.2 pts
    2015Rosedale & Bury GreenUK Independence Party (UKIP)-12.4 pts-10.3 pts-2.1 pts
    2015Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-8.5 pts-10.3 pts+1.8 pts
    2015Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkLabour+4.4 pts+2.6 pts+1.8 pts
    2015Wormley and TurnfordLabour+0.9 pts+2.6 pts-1.7 pts
    2015Goffs OakUK Independence Party (UKIP)-11.9 pts-10.3 pts-1.6 pts
    2015Goffs OakLabour+4.1 pts+2.6 pts+1.6 pts
    2015Rosedale & Bury GreenLabour+1.1 pts+2.6 pts-1.5 pts
    2015Wormley and TurnfordConservative+9.6 pts+8.3 pts+1.3 pts
    2015Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthLabour+1.3 pts+2.6 pts-1.3 pts
    2015Cheshunt NorthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-9.0 pts-10.3 pts+1.2 pts
    2015Flamstead EndLabour+3.6 pts+2.6 pts+1.0 pts
    2015Hoddesdon NorthConservative+7.5 pts+8.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2015Flamstead EndConservative+9.0 pts+8.3 pts+0.6 pts
    2015Goffs OakConservative+7.8 pts+8.3 pts-0.6 pts
    2015Cheshunt NorthLabour+3.0 pts+2.6 pts+0.4 pts
    2015Wormley and TurnfordUK Independence Party (UKIP)-10.5 pts-10.3 pts-0.2 pts
    2015Hoddesdon NorthLabour+2.7 pts+2.6 pts+0.1 pts
    2015Hoddesdon NorthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-10.2 pts-10.3 pts+0.1 pts
    2015Cheshunt South and TheobaldsLabour+2.5 pts+2.6 pts-0.1 pts
    2015Hoddesdon Town & Rye ParkConservative+8.4 pts+8.3 pts+0.1 pts
    2015Broxbourne and Hoddesdon SouthConservative+8.4 pts+8.3 pts+0.0 pts