Broxtowe: wards that bucked the trend
Broxtowe: in 2019, 25 ward results beat the expected swing and 35 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Eastwood St Mary's (-29.3 pts actual vs +7.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Eastwood St Mary's | Liberal Democrats | -29.3 pts | +7.5 pts | -36.8 pts |
| 2019 | Awsworth, Cossall & Trowell | Conservative | +23.6 pts | -4.1 pts | +27.7 pts |
| 2019 | Stapleford North | Independent | +24.4 pts | +0.3 pts | +24.1 pts |
| 2019 | Stapleford South West | Conservative | -27.4 pts | -4.1 pts | -23.3 pts |
| 2019 | Eastwood Hilltop | Liberal Democrats | -15.3 pts | +7.5 pts | -22.7 pts |
| 2019 | Brinsley | Labour | -19.8 pts | +0.4 pts | -20.3 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston Central | Labour | +20.3 pts | +0.4 pts | +19.9 pts |
| 2019 | Greasley | Conservative | +13.5 pts | -4.1 pts | +17.6 pts |
| 2019 | Awsworth, Cossall & Trowell | Liberal Democrats | -9.8 pts | +7.5 pts | -17.2 pts |
| 2019 | Bramcote | Liberal Democrats | +22.7 pts | +7.5 pts | +15.3 pts |
| 2019 | Stapleford North | Labour | -14.6 pts | +0.4 pts | -15.0 pts |
| 2019 | Eastwood St Mary's | Labour | -12.7 pts | +0.4 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston Central | Conservative | -17.2 pts | -4.1 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston West | Labour | +12.7 pts | +0.4 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston Rylands | Conservative | -15.5 pts | -4.1 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2019 | Stapleford South West | Labour | -10.9 pts | +0.4 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2019 | Stapleford South East | Liberal Democrats | +17.8 pts | +7.5 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Eastwood Hilltop | Labour | +10.4 pts | +0.4 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2019 | Brinsley | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -4.1 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2019 | Watnall & Nuthall West | Labour | -7.0 pts | +0.4 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston North | Liberal Democrats | +14.8 pts | +7.5 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2019 | Kimberley | Conservative | +2.9 pts | -4.1 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Bramcote | Conservative | -11.0 pts | -4.1 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Greasley | Labour | +7.2 pts | +0.4 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston Central | Green | +7.7 pts | +0.9 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston West | Liberal Democrats | +1.0 pts | +7.5 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Eastwood Hall | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | +7.5 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Kimberley | Green | -4.6 pts | +0.9 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2019 | Nuthall East and Strelley | Labour | +5.8 pts | +0.4 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Bramcote | Labour | -4.2 pts | +0.4 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Awsworth, Cossall & Trowell | Labour | +4.7 pts | +0.4 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Brinsley | Green | -3.2 pts | +0.9 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Stapleford South East | Labour | -3.6 pts | +0.4 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Attenborough & Chilwell East | Green | +4.9 pts | +0.9 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston West | Green | -3.0 pts | +0.9 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Eastwood Hall | Conservative | -0.3 pts | -4.1 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston North | Labour | +4.3 pts | +0.4 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Nuthall East and Strelley | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -4.1 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Toton & Chilwell Meadows | Labour | -3.0 pts | +0.4 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Watnall & Nuthall West | Conservative | -7.2 pts | -4.1 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Kimberley | Independent | +3.0 pts | +0.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Nuthall East and Strelley | Green | +3.6 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Attenborough & Chilwell East | Liberal Democrats | +5.1 pts | +7.5 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston West | Conservative | -6.3 pts | -4.1 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Chilwell West | Green | +2.9 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Eastwood Hall | Labour | -1.5 pts | +0.4 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Kimberley | Labour | -1.3 pts | +0.4 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston Rylands | Labour | -1.3 pts | +0.4 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Eastwood St Mary's | Independent | -1.2 pts | +0.3 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Chilwell West | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -4.1 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston North | Conservative | -5.2 pts | -4.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Attenborough & Chilwell East | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -4.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Chilwell West | Labour | +1.4 pts | +0.4 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Attenborough & Chilwell East | Labour | -0.4 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Chilwell West | Liberal Democrats | +8.3 pts | +7.5 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Stapleford South East | Conservative | -4.9 pts | -4.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Toton & Chilwell Meadows | Conservative | -3.4 pts | -4.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Beeston Rylands | Liberal Democrats | +7.0 pts | +7.5 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Eastwood Hilltop | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -4.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stapleford North | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -4.1 pts | +0.2 pts |