Cannock Chase: wards that bucked the trend
Cannock Chase: in 2023, 20 ward results beat the expected swing and 14 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Hawks Green (+6.7 pts actual vs -10.8 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Hawks Green | Conservative | +6.7 pts | -10.8 pts | +17.5 pts |
| 2023 | Hednesford Green Heath | Labour | +16.4 pts | -0.7 pts | +17.1 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock East | Labour | +15.8 pts | -0.7 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2023 | Hawks Green | Labour | +14.3 pts | -0.7 pts | +15.0 pts |
| 2023 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Conservative | +4.1 pts | -10.8 pts | +15.0 pts |
| 2023 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Labour | +12.6 pts | -0.7 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2023 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Conservative | +2.3 pts | -10.8 pts | +13.1 pts |
| 2023 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Labour | +11.4 pts | -0.7 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock West | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -10.8 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2023 | Hawks Green | Green | +4.2 pts | +11.7 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2023 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Green | +4.7 pts | +11.7 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2023 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Green | +5.0 pts | +11.7 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock North | Labour | +5.9 pts | -0.7 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock West | Green | +5.2 pts | +11.7 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock North | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -10.8 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2023 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Liberal Democrats | -6.1 pts | -0.5 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2023 | Hednesford Green Heath | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -10.8 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock East | Conservative | -16.2 pts | -10.8 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Hednesford North | Labour | -6.1 pts | -0.7 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock South | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -10.8 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock North | Green | +6.4 pts | +11.7 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hednesford North | Conservative | -15.9 pts | -10.8 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock West | Labour | +4.1 pts | -0.7 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock East | Green | +7.2 pts | +11.7 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2023 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Conservative | -6.6 pts | -10.8 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2023 | RAWNSLEY | Green | +15.9 pts | +11.7 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock North | Independent | +2.0 pts | +4.7 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2023 | RAWNSLEY | Labour | -3.1 pts | -0.7 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2023 | Western Springs | Labour | +1.6 pts | -0.7 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Cannock South | Labour | +1.6 pts | -0.7 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2023 | RAWNSLEY | Conservative | -12.8 pts | -10.8 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2023 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Labour | +1.0 pts | -0.7 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Western Springs | Conservative | -9.8 pts | -10.8 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Norton Canes | Conservative | -11.2 pts | -10.8 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hednesford Green Heath | Labour | -14.8 pts | +4.5 pts | -19.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hednesford North | Labour | -14.6 pts | +4.5 pts | -19.2 pts |
| 2019 | RAWNSLEY | Labour | -12.1 pts | +4.5 pts | -16.6 pts |
| 2019 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Conservative | +4.6 pts | -8.2 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2019 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Labour | -8.0 pts | +4.5 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +16.9 pts | +4.7 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock South | Labour | -7.6 pts | +4.5 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hednesford North | Green | +21.8 pts | +11.0 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Western Springs | Conservative | +2.5 pts | -8.2 pts | +10.7 pts |
| 2019 | Norton Canes | Green | +1.4 pts | +11.0 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock South | Green | +2.4 pts | +11.0 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2019 | RAWNSLEY | Green | +19.0 pts | +11.0 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hawks Green | Green | +3.1 pts | +11.0 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Green | +3.2 pts | +11.0 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +12.5 pts | +4.7 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hednesford Green Heath | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +12.5 pts | +4.7 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock West | Labour | -3.2 pts | +4.5 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hawks Green | Conservative | -15.4 pts | -8.2 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock East | Green | +4.0 pts | +11.0 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +11.6 pts | +4.7 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hawks Green | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +10.5 pts | +4.7 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock North | Green | +5.7 pts | +11.0 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock North | Conservative | -13.3 pts | -8.2 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hednesford Green Heath | Independent | +4.1 pts | -0.9 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hednesford Green Heath | Green | +6.1 pts | +11.0 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock East | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -8.2 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Liberal Democrats | +3.2 pts | -1.1 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Labour | +8.5 pts | +4.5 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock North | Labour | +7.6 pts | +4.5 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Green | +14.0 pts | +11.0 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Norton Canes | Conservative | -10.3 pts | -8.2 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock West | Conservative | -6.5 pts | -8.2 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Conservative | -6.5 pts | -8.2 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Conservative | -6.8 pts | -8.2 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock West | Green | +9.7 pts | +11.0 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Western Springs | Labour | +3.4 pts | +4.5 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hednesford North | Conservative | -7.2 pts | -8.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | RAWNSLEY | Conservative | -7.2 pts | -8.2 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cannock South | Conservative | -7.3 pts | -8.2 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hednesford Green Heath | Conservative | -7.9 pts | -8.2 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock North | Labour | +8.9 pts | -8.3 pts | +17.2 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock West | Labour | +6.3 pts | -8.3 pts | +14.6 pts |
| 2018 | Hednesford North | Green | +15.8 pts | +1.8 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock West | Conservative | +1.3 pts | +12.9 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2018 | Hawks Green | Conservative | +23.1 pts | +12.9 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2018 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Conservative | +22.7 pts | +12.9 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2018 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Labour | +0.9 pts | -8.3 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hawks Green | Labour | +0.1 pts | -8.3 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock South | Labour | -0.3 pts | -8.3 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2018 | Western Springs | Conservative | +20.2 pts | +12.9 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2018 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Liberal Democrats | +8.3 pts | +1.3 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2018 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Conservative | +19.3 pts | +12.9 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2018 | Hednesford North | Labour | -1.9 pts | -8.3 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2018 | Brereton and Ravenhill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.8 pts | -20.9 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2018 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Labour | -2.6 pts | -8.3 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.8 pts | -20.9 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2018 | Hawks Green | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -25.2 pts | -20.9 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Western Springs | Labour | -12.2 pts | -8.3 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock East | Conservative | +16.6 pts | +12.9 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -24.2 pts | -20.9 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Green | +4.6 pts | +1.8 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock North | Green | +4.5 pts | +1.8 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2018 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.3 pts | -20.9 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock North | Conservative | +14.5 pts | +12.9 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Conservative | +11.4 pts | +12.9 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Norton Canes | Conservative | +11.4 pts | +12.9 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock South | Green | +3.2 pts | +1.8 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock West | Green | +3.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Norton Canes | Green | +0.5 pts | +1.8 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Green | +0.9 pts | +1.8 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Hednesford North | Conservative | +12.4 pts | +12.9 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock East | Green | +2.3 pts | +1.8 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Hawks Green | Green | +2.0 pts | +1.8 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | +1.3 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2018 | Cannock South | Conservative | +12.9 pts | +12.9 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2016 | Hednesford South | Green | +36.3 pts | +2.3 pts | +34.0 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock West | Conservative | +13.6 pts | -5.9 pts | +19.5 pts |
| 2016 | Hednesford South | Conservative | -19.0 pts | -5.9 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2016 | Hednesford South | Labour | -10.6 pts | +1.4 pts | -12.0 pts |
| 2016 | Hednesford South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.8 pts | +3.4 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock West | Labour | -7.6 pts | +1.4 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.4 pts | +3.4 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2016 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Conservative | -14.1 pts | -5.9 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2016 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Labour | +9.2 pts | +1.4 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2016 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Liberal Democrats | +7.6 pts | -0.0 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2016 | Hagley | Labour | +8.6 pts | +1.4 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2016 | Etching Hill and the Heath | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +10.1 pts | +3.4 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2016 | Hednesford North | Labour | +7.7 pts | +1.4 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +9.5 pts | +3.4 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2016 | Hawks Green | Conservative | -11.9 pts | -5.9 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2016 | Hagley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +8.9 pts | +3.4 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2016 | Hawks Green | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +8.8 pts | +3.4 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock South | Labour | +6.6 pts | +1.4 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2016 | Hagley | Conservative | -10.8 pts | -5.9 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock North | Conservative | -9.9 pts | -5.9 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2016 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +7.3 pts | +3.4 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2016 | Western Springs | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +7.1 pts | +3.4 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Green | -1.3 pts | +2.3 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock South | Green | -1.3 pts | +2.3 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2016 | Hawks Green | Labour | +4.7 pts | +1.4 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2016 | Norton Canes | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -5.9 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock East | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -5.9 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2016 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Green | -0.8 pts | +2.3 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2016 | Western Springs | Conservative | -9.0 pts | -5.9 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2016 | Hednesford North | Conservative | -9.0 pts | -5.9 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2016 | Norton Canes | Labour | +4.5 pts | +1.4 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock North | Labour | +4.5 pts | +1.4 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2016 | Western Springs | Labour | +4.4 pts | +1.4 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock West | Green | -0.6 pts | +2.3 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2016 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Liberal Democrats | -2.9 pts | -0.0 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2016 | Hednesford North | Green | -0.2 pts | +2.3 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock East | Green | +0.0 pts | +2.3 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Norton Canes | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.6 pts | +3.4 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Labour | -0.8 pts | +1.4 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock South | Conservative | -8.0 pts | -5.9 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2016 | Brereton and Ravenhill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.4 pts | +3.4 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2016 | Hednesford North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.5 pts | +3.4 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Conservative | -7.7 pts | -5.9 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Labour | -0.4 pts | +1.4 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock East | Labour | -0.4 pts | +1.4 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Hawks Green | Green | +0.8 pts | +2.3 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2016 | Norton Canes | Green | +0.9 pts | +2.3 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock North | Green | +1.3 pts | +2.3 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +4.2 pts | +3.4 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2016 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -5.9 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2016 | Cannock South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.7 pts | +3.4 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2016 | Western Springs | Green | +1.8 pts | +2.3 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2016 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Green | +2.1 pts | +2.3 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Hagley | Green | +2.2 pts | +2.3 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2015 | Western Springs | Independent | -22.0 pts | -1.1 pts | -20.9 pts |
| 2015 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Liberal Democrats | -15.6 pts | -2.0 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2015 | Western Springs | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.5 pts | -12.7 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2015 | Western Springs | Labour | +7.5 pts | -1.4 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2015 | Hednesford Green Heath | Labour | -10.2 pts | -1.4 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2015 | Hawks Green | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -20.7 pts | -12.7 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2015 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -19.8 pts | -12.7 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2015 | Hednesford North | Conservative | +6.1 pts | +13.0 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2015 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Conservative | +6.2 pts | +13.0 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2015 | RAWNSLEY | Conservative | +6.2 pts | +13.0 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2015 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Labour | +4.0 pts | -1.4 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2015 | Norton Canes | Labour | -6.2 pts | -1.4 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2015 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Conservative | +17.7 pts | +13.0 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2015 | Hednesford Green Heath | Conservative | +17.3 pts | +13.0 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2015 | Western Springs | Conservative | +17.3 pts | +13.0 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock West | Conservative | +9.1 pts | +13.0 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2015 | RAWNSLEY | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.6 pts | -12.7 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2015 | Hednesford Green Heath | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.3 pts | -12.7 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2015 | Hawks Green | Conservative | +16.3 pts | +13.0 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2015 | Hednesford North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.1 pts | -12.7 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2015 | Norton Canes | Liberal Democrats | +0.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2015 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Labour | +0.8 pts | -1.4 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2015 | Brereton and Ravenhill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.7 pts | -12.7 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2015 | RAWNSLEY | Labour | -3.4 pts | -1.4 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock North | Conservative | +11.1 pts | +13.0 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.3 pts | -12.7 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2015 | Norton Canes | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.1 pts | -12.7 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock West | Labour | -0.2 pts | -1.4 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2015 | Norton Canes | Conservative | +14.2 pts | +13.0 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2015 | RAWNSLEY | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock South | Conservative | +11.8 pts | +13.0 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2015 | Heath Hayes East and Wimblebury | Labour | -2.5 pts | -1.4 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.9 pts | -12.7 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2015 | Hednesford North | Labour | -0.3 pts | -1.4 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2015 | Etching Hill and the Heath | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2015 | Etching Hill and the Heath | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.6 pts | -12.7 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2015 | Hawks Green | Labour | -2.2 pts | -1.4 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock South | Labour | -2.1 pts | -1.4 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock North | Labour | -2.1 pts | -1.4 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock East | Labour | -0.9 pts | -1.4 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock East | Conservative | +12.6 pts | +13.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.0 pts | -12.7 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2015 | Cannock North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.5 pts | -12.7 pts | +0.2 pts |