Cardiff: wards that bucked the trend
Cardiff: in 2022, 57 ward results beat the expected swing and 50 trailed it. The biggest gap was Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales in FAIRWATER (-23.4 pts actual vs +7.3 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | FAIRWATER | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | -23.4 pts | +7.3 pts | -30.7 pts |
| 2022 | Adamsdown | Liberal Democrats | -25.0 pts | -3.3 pts | -21.7 pts |
| 2022 | Heath | Liberal Democrats | +14.2 pts | -3.3 pts | +17.5 pts |
| 2022 | Cyncoed | Conservative | -22.4 pts | -4.9 pts | -17.5 pts |
| 2022 | Ely | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | -10.1 pts | +7.3 pts | -17.4 pts |
| 2022 | Caerau | Labour | +24.6 pts | +7.6 pts | +17.0 pts |
| 2022 | Cyncoed | Liberal Democrats | +13.6 pts | -3.3 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2022 | Cathays | Liberal Democrats | -16.5 pts | -3.3 pts | -13.2 pts |
| 2022 | Llandaff | Labour | +20.3 pts | +7.6 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2022 | Plasnewydd | Liberal Democrats | -15.6 pts | -3.3 pts | -12.3 pts |
| 2022 | Trowbridge | Liberal Democrats | -15.5 pts | -3.3 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2022 | Adamsdown | Labour | +19.5 pts | +7.6 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2022 | Llanishen | Conservative | -16.8 pts | -4.9 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2022 | Radyr | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | -3.9 pts | +7.3 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2022 | Whitchurch & Tongwynlais | Conservative | -15.6 pts | -4.9 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2022 | Gabalfa | Labour | -1.9 pts | +7.6 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2022 | Heath | Labour | +16.7 pts | +7.6 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2022 | Llandaff | Conservative | +4.1 pts | -4.9 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2022 | Gabalfa | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | -1.5 pts | +7.3 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2022 | Grangetown | Labour | +15.8 pts | +7.6 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Trowbridge | Conservative | +3.2 pts | -4.9 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Canton | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +15.4 pts | +7.3 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Llanishen | Labour | +15.2 pts | +7.6 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2022 | Grangetown | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +0.1 pts | +7.3 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2022 | Pentwyn | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +0.4 pts | +7.3 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2022 | Plasnewydd | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +13.5 pts | +7.3 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2022 | FAIRWATER | Labour | +13.8 pts | +7.6 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2022 | Riverside | Labour | +1.4 pts | +7.6 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2022 | Ely | Conservative | +1.1 pts | -4.9 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2022 | PONTPRENNAU/OLD ST. MELLONS | Conservative | -10.8 pts | -4.9 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2022 | Whitchurch & Tongwynlais | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +13.1 pts | +7.3 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2022 | Gabalfa | Liberal Democrats | +2.6 pts | -3.3 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Pentwyn | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | -3.3 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Caerau | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | -3.3 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Adamsdown | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -4.9 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Grangetown | Conservative | +0.4 pts | -4.9 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Llandaff North | Labour | +2.3 pts | +7.6 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2022 | Llanrumney | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +2.0 pts | +7.3 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2022 | Canton | Labour | +2.5 pts | +7.6 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Llandaff | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +2.2 pts | +7.3 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Cyncoed | Labour | +2.8 pts | +7.6 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2022 | Butetown | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | -3.3 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2022 | Llanrumney | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | -3.3 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2022 | Whitchurch & Tongwynlais | Labour | +3.3 pts | +7.6 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2022 | Butetown | Conservative | -0.7 pts | -4.9 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2022 | PONTPRENNAU/OLD ST. MELLONS | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -3.3 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Rhiwbina | Labour | +11.7 pts | +7.6 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Plasnewydd | Conservative | -0.9 pts | -4.9 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2022 | Rhiwbina | Conservative | -9.0 pts | -4.9 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2022 | Llandaff North | Conservative | -8.8 pts | -4.9 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2022 | Trowbridge | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +10.9 pts | +7.3 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Heath | Conservative | -8.5 pts | -4.9 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Splott | Liberal Democrats | -6.8 pts | -3.3 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2022 | Splott | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +4.1 pts | +7.3 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Splott | Green | +1.7 pts | -1.3 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Riverside | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | -3.3 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Cathays | Labour | +4.6 pts | +7.6 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Splott | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -4.9 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | FAIRWATER | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -3.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Radyr | Labour | +10.3 pts | +7.6 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Rumney | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -3.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Trowbridge | Labour | +10.1 pts | +7.6 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Grangetown | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -3.3 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Ely | Labour | +10.1 pts | +7.6 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Riverside | Conservative | -2.5 pts | -4.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Whitchurch & Tongwynlais | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -3.3 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | PONTPRENNAU/OLD ST. MELLONS | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +4.9 pts | +7.3 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Cathays | Conservative | -2.6 pts | -4.9 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Rhiwbina | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +5.0 pts | +7.3 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Canton | Conservative | -2.7 pts | -4.9 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Penylan | Liberal Democrats | -5.4 pts | -3.3 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Penylan | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +5.2 pts | +7.3 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Llandaff North | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +5.4 pts | +7.3 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Pentwyn | Conservative | -6.8 pts | -4.9 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Llandaff North | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -3.3 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Llanishen | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -3.3 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Caerau | Conservative | -6.6 pts | -4.9 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Penylan | Conservative | -3.3 pts | -4.9 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Gabalfa | Conservative | -3.4 pts | -4.9 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Adamsdown | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +5.7 pts | +7.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Rhiwbina | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | -3.3 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Llandaff | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | -3.3 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Butetown | Labour | +8.8 pts | +7.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Plasnewydd | Labour | +6.4 pts | +7.6 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Llanishen | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +8.3 pts | +7.3 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Riverside | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +8.0 pts | +7.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Rumney | Conservative | -4.2 pts | -4.9 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Llanrumney | Labour | +8.3 pts | +7.6 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Ely | Liberal Democrats | -3.9 pts | -3.3 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | FAIRWATER | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -4.9 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Radyr | Liberal Democrats | -2.7 pts | -3.3 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Pentwyn | TUSC | -0.3 pts | +0.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Llanrumney | Conservative | -4.5 pts | -4.9 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Llandaff North | TUSC | -0.2 pts | +0.2 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | PONTPRENNAU/OLD ST. MELLONS | Labour | +7.2 pts | +7.6 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Canton | Liberal Democrats | -3.7 pts | -3.3 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Rumney | Labour | +7.2 pts | +7.6 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Butetown | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +7.6 pts | +7.3 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Splott | TUSC | -0.1 pts | +0.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Cathays | TUSC | -0.1 pts | +0.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Grangetown | TUSC | -0.1 pts | +0.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Pentwyn | Labour | +7.4 pts | +7.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Radyr | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -4.9 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Adamsdown | TUSC | +0.3 pts | +0.2 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Ely | TUSC | +0.2 pts | +0.2 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2022 | Splott | Labour | +7.5 pts | +7.6 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2022 | Penylan | Labour | +7.6 pts | +7.6 pts | +0.0 pts |