Psephology.AI

    Castle Point: wards that bucked the trend

    Castle Point: in 2023, 13 ward results beat the expected swing and 11 trailed it. The biggest gap was Canvey Island Independent Party in Canvey Island East (-38.8 pts actual vs +14.4 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Castle Point: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2023Canvey Island EastCanvey Island Independent Party-38.8 pts+14.4 pts-53.2 pts
    2023St George'sConservative+17.0 pts-6.5 pts+23.5 pts
    2023St. PetersLabour+10.0 pts-10.1 pts+20.1 pts
    2023Canvey Island CentralLabour+5.4 pts-10.1 pts+15.4 pts
    2023St. JamesConservative-21.3 pts-6.5 pts-14.8 pts
    2023Canvey Island EastLabour+1.0 pts-10.1 pts+11.0 pts
    2023Cedar HallConservative+4.3 pts-6.5 pts+10.9 pts
    2023St. JamesLabour-19.2 pts-10.1 pts-9.1 pts
    2023Canvey Island WestLabour-1.3 pts-10.1 pts+8.8 pts
    2023Canvey Island EastConservative-15.0 pts-6.5 pts-8.5 pts
    2023BoyceLabour-1.9 pts-10.1 pts+8.2 pts
    2023St. PetersConservative-13.4 pts-6.5 pts-6.8 pts
    2023AppletonConservative-0.7 pts-6.5 pts+5.9 pts
    2023VictoriaConservative-12.4 pts-6.5 pts-5.8 pts
    2023Canvey Island CentralConservative-12.3 pts-6.5 pts-5.8 pts
    2023St Mary'sConservative-11.7 pts-6.5 pts-5.1 pts
    2023St George'sLabour-15.2 pts-10.1 pts-5.1 pts
    2023Canvey Island WestIndependent+5.6 pts+0.6 pts+5.0 pts
    2023Canvey Island SouthConservative-2.3 pts-6.5 pts+4.2 pts
    2023Canvey Island SouthLabour-6.2 pts-10.1 pts+3.8 pts
    2023BoyceConservative-9.3 pts-6.5 pts-2.8 pts
    2023Canvey Island NorthConservative-3.9 pts-6.5 pts+2.6 pts
    2023Canvey Island WestConservative-7.6 pts-6.5 pts-1.1 pts
    2023Canvey Island Winter GardensConservative-6.4 pts-6.5 pts+0.1 pts
    2022St George'sConservative-37.7 pts-10.2 pts-27.5 pts
    2022St. JamesConservative+8.0 pts-10.2 pts+18.1 pts
    2022St. JamesLabour+22.7 pts+5.7 pts+17.0 pts
    2022Canvey Island SouthCIIP+3.6 pts+17.8 pts-14.3 pts
    2022Canvey Island Winter GardensConservative+0.2 pts-10.2 pts+10.3 pts
    2022St Mary'sLabour-4.4 pts+5.7 pts-10.1 pts
    2022Canvey Island CentralConservative-0.7 pts-10.2 pts+9.5 pts
    2022St Mary'sConservative-2.2 pts-10.2 pts+7.9 pts
    2022VictoriaLabour-1.5 pts+5.7 pts-7.2 pts
    2022St Michael'sGreen-6.5 pts+0.5 pts-7.0 pts
    2022St Michael'sConservative-3.2 pts-10.2 pts+7.0 pts
    2022St. PetersConservative-3.7 pts-10.2 pts+6.5 pts
    2022Cedar HallLabour-0.6 pts+5.7 pts-6.3 pts
    2022Canvey Island NorthLabour-0.4 pts+5.7 pts-6.1 pts
    2022Canvey Island EastConservative-4.6 pts-10.2 pts+5.6 pts
    2022BoyceLabour+0.4 pts+5.7 pts-5.3 pts
    2022BoyceConservative-4.9 pts-10.2 pts+5.2 pts
    2022AppletonLabour+0.9 pts+5.7 pts-4.8 pts
    2022St. PetersLabour+1.0 pts+5.7 pts-4.7 pts
    2022Canvey Island CentralLabour+1.7 pts+5.7 pts-4.0 pts
    2022St Michael'sLabour+9.0 pts+5.7 pts+3.3 pts
    2022Canvey Island EastLabour+2.4 pts+5.7 pts-3.3 pts
    2022St Michael'sLiberal Democrats+0.7 pts-2.5 pts+3.2 pts
    2022Canvey Island SouthLabour+8.8 pts+5.7 pts+3.1 pts
    2022Cedar HallConservative-7.3 pts-10.2 pts+2.8 pts
    2022Canvey Island EastCanvey Island Independent Party+2.2 pts-0.3 pts+2.5 pts
    2022AppletonConservative-8.1 pts-10.2 pts+2.0 pts
    2022Canvey Island SouthConservative-8.2 pts-10.2 pts+1.9 pts
    2022Canvey Island Winter GardensLabour+3.9 pts+5.7 pts-1.8 pts
    2022St George'sLabour+6.7 pts+5.7 pts+1.0 pts
    2022VictoriaConservative-9.4 pts-10.2 pts+0.8 pts
    2022St George'sGreen+0.3 pts+0.5 pts-0.2 pts
    2022Canvey Island NorthConservative-10.1 pts-10.2 pts+0.1 pts
    2021AppletonIndependent-27.5 pts+9.0 pts-36.5 pts
    2021Cedar HallConservative-36.5 pts-1.1 pts-35.5 pts
    2021Canvey Island SouthCIIP+16.2 pts-17.7 pts+33.9 pts
    2021St Mary'sConservative-32.1 pts-1.1 pts-31.0 pts
    2021St. PetersConservative-30.3 pts-1.1 pts-29.3 pts
    2021BoyceLabour-24.6 pts-3.9 pts-20.7 pts
    2021Canvey Island SouthConservative+16.3 pts-1.1 pts+17.4 pts
    2021St. JamesConservative+14.7 pts-1.1 pts+15.8 pts
    2021VictoriaConservative-16.7 pts-1.1 pts-15.7 pts
    2021BoyceIndependent+24.3 pts+9.0 pts+15.3 pts
    2021Canvey Island EastConservative+14.3 pts-1.1 pts+15.3 pts
    2021Canvey Island NorthConservative+12.8 pts-1.1 pts+13.8 pts
    2021Canvey Island NorthCanvey Island Independent Party-16.4 pts-2.8 pts-13.6 pts
    2021Canvey Island CentralConservative+12.2 pts-1.1 pts+13.3 pts
    2021St George'sConservative-13.8 pts-1.1 pts-12.8 pts
    2021St. JamesLiberal Democrats-5.5 pts+6.9 pts-12.4 pts
    2021VictoriaLiberal Democrats-3.8 pts+6.9 pts-10.7 pts
    2021Cedar HallLabour-14.2 pts-3.9 pts-10.4 pts
    2021St. PetersLabour-13.5 pts-3.9 pts-9.6 pts
    2021Canvey Island Winter GardensConservative+7.5 pts-1.1 pts+8.5 pts
    2021Canvey Island NorthLabour+3.7 pts-3.9 pts+7.6 pts
    2021Canvey Island SouthLabour+2.9 pts-3.9 pts+6.8 pts
    2021St. JamesLabour+2.4 pts-3.9 pts+6.3 pts
    2021St Mary'sLabour-10.2 pts-3.9 pts-6.3 pts
    2021Canvey Island EastLabour+1.7 pts-3.9 pts+5.6 pts
    2021St. JamesIndependent+5.3 pts+9.0 pts-3.7 pts
    2021VictoriaLabour-7.4 pts-3.9 pts-3.5 pts
    2021Canvey Island Winter GardensLabour-0.4 pts-3.9 pts+3.5 pts
    2021Canvey Island CentralLabour-0.5 pts-3.9 pts+3.4 pts
    2021AppletonConservative-2.7 pts-1.1 pts-1.7 pts
    2021St George'sLabour-5.0 pts-3.9 pts-1.1 pts
    2021AppletonLabour-3.1 pts-3.9 pts+0.8 pts
    2021BoyceConservative-1.3 pts-1.1 pts-0.3 pts
    2019Canvey Island SouthCIIP-23.2 pts+6.6 pts-29.7 pts
    2019St George'sConservative+14.3 pts-6.2 pts+20.5 pts
    2019St. PetersConservative+13.6 pts-6.2 pts+19.9 pts
    2019BoyceLabour+16.6 pts-2.5 pts+19.2 pts
    2019St. JamesConservative-25.0 pts-6.2 pts-18.7 pts
    2019BoyceConservative-24.8 pts-6.2 pts-18.6 pts
    2019Cedar HallConservative+11.8 pts-6.2 pts+18.0 pts
    2019St Mary'sConservative+9.0 pts-6.2 pts+15.2 pts
    2019VictoriaConservative-16.9 pts-6.2 pts-10.7 pts
    2019Canvey Island WestConservative+1.8 pts-6.2 pts+8.1 pts
    2019VictoriaLabour-10.4 pts-2.5 pts-7.8 pts
    2019St. PetersLabour+3.8 pts-2.5 pts+6.4 pts
    2019St. JamesLabour-8.5 pts-2.5 pts-6.0 pts
    2019AppletonConservative-12.2 pts-6.2 pts-5.9 pts
    2019Canvey Island WestLabour-8.3 pts-2.5 pts-5.7 pts
    2019Canvey Island SouthConservative-11.8 pts-6.2 pts-5.6 pts
    2019Canvey Island Winter GardensCIIP+11.0 pts+6.6 pts+4.4 pts
    2019Canvey Island CentralLabour-6.3 pts-2.5 pts-3.7 pts
    2019AppletonLabour-5.4 pts-2.5 pts-2.8 pts
    2019St. JamesLiberal Democrats-2.1 pts+0.6 pts-2.7 pts
    2019Canvey Island NorthLabour-0.2 pts-2.5 pts+2.3 pts
    2019Cedar HallLabour-0.2 pts-2.5 pts+2.3 pts
    2019Canvey Island CentralConservative-4.0 pts-6.2 pts+2.2 pts
    2019Canvey Island SouthLabour-4.5 pts-2.5 pts-2.0 pts
    2019Canvey Island NorthConservative-4.4 pts-6.2 pts+1.9 pts
    2019Canvey Island Winter GardensLabour-4.3 pts-2.5 pts-1.8 pts
    2019St Mary'sLabour-1.3 pts-2.5 pts+1.3 pts
    2019St George'sLabour-1.4 pts-2.5 pts+1.2 pts
    2019Canvey Island EastLabour-2.9 pts-2.5 pts-0.4 pts
    2019Canvey Island Winter GardensConservative-6.7 pts-6.2 pts-0.4 pts
    2019Canvey Island EastConservative-6.6 pts-6.2 pts-0.4 pts
    2018Canvey Island SouthCIIP+22.6 pts+4.3 pts+18.4 pts
    2018St George'sUK Independence Party (UKIP)-11.8 pts-26.2 pts+14.5 pts
    2018BoyceConservative+25.0 pts+10.5 pts+14.4 pts
    2018St Mary'sConservative+23.2 pts+10.5 pts+12.6 pts
    2018St. JamesConservative-0.7 pts+10.5 pts-11.3 pts
    2018St George'sConservative-0.1 pts+10.5 pts-10.7 pts
    2018AppletonUK Independence Party (UKIP)-19.1 pts-26.2 pts+7.2 pts
    2018Canvey Island NorthConservative+3.6 pts+10.5 pts-6.9 pts
    2018St George'sLabour+11.9 pts+5.3 pts+6.6 pts
    2018St. JamesLiberal Democrats+6.8 pts+0.3 pts+6.5 pts
    2018St. JamesLabour+11.7 pts+5.3 pts+6.4 pts
    2018Canvey Island NorthLabour-0.8 pts+5.3 pts-6.1 pts
    2018VictoriaLabour+11.1 pts+5.3 pts+5.8 pts
    2018Canvey Island Winter GardensCIIP+10.0 pts+4.3 pts+5.7 pts
    2018Cedar HallConservative+16.2 pts+10.5 pts+5.7 pts
    2018VictoriaConservative+15.9 pts+10.5 pts+5.4 pts
    2018Canvey Island EastConservative+15.3 pts+10.5 pts+4.7 pts
    2018AppletonConservative+15.1 pts+10.5 pts+4.6 pts
    2018Cedar HallUK Independence Party (UKIP)-22.0 pts-26.2 pts+4.2 pts
    2018Canvey Island EastLabour+1.3 pts+5.3 pts-4.0 pts
    2018St. PetersConservative+14.3 pts+10.5 pts+3.8 pts
    2018BoyceLabour+1.6 pts+5.3 pts-3.7 pts
    2018Canvey Island SouthConservative+14.2 pts+10.5 pts+3.7 pts
    2018Canvey Island CentralConservative+6.9 pts+10.5 pts-3.7 pts
    2018Canvey Island CentralLabour+7.7 pts+5.3 pts+2.4 pts
    2018St. PetersLabour+7.3 pts+5.3 pts+2.0 pts
    2018St Mary'sLabour+3.6 pts+5.3 pts-1.7 pts
    2018Canvey Island Winter GardensConservative+9.0 pts+10.5 pts-1.5 pts
    2018AppletonLabour+3.9 pts+5.3 pts-1.4 pts
    2018Canvey Island Winter GardensLabour+4.7 pts+5.3 pts-0.6 pts
    2018St Mary'sUK Independence Party (UKIP)-26.7 pts-26.2 pts-0.5 pts
    2018Cedar HallLabour+5.8 pts+5.3 pts+0.5 pts
    2018BoyceUK Independence Party (UKIP)-26.6 pts-26.2 pts-0.4 pts
    2018Canvey Island SouthLabour+5.1 pts+5.3 pts-0.2 pts
    2016St. JamesUK Independence Party (UKIP)-9.9 pts+10.4 pts-20.4 pts
    2016St George'sUK Independence Party (UKIP)-7.2 pts+10.4 pts-17.6 pts
    2016Canvey Island SouthConservative-20.7 pts-4.0 pts-16.6 pts
    2016VictoriaUK Independence Party (UKIP)-3.9 pts+10.4 pts-14.4 pts
    2016St. JamesConservative+9.8 pts-4.0 pts+13.8 pts
    2016Canvey Island EastCIIP+4.1 pts-9.2 pts+13.3 pts
    2016Canvey Island Winter GardensConservative-16.1 pts-4.0 pts-12.1 pts
    2016AppletonUK Independence Party (UKIP)-1.0 pts+10.4 pts-11.4 pts
    2016BoyceUK Independence Party (UKIP)-0.3 pts+10.4 pts-10.7 pts
    2016Cedar HallUK Independence Party (UKIP)+0.1 pts+10.4 pts-10.4 pts
    2016Canvey Island EastConservative-14.3 pts-4.0 pts-10.2 pts
    2016St Mary'sUK Independence Party (UKIP)+0.3 pts+10.4 pts-10.1 pts
    2016Canvey Island SouthCIIP+0.6 pts-9.2 pts+9.8 pts
    2016St George'sConservative+5.5 pts-4.0 pts+9.5 pts
    2016St Mary'sLabour+8.5 pts-0.8 pts+9.3 pts
    2016Canvey Island CentralConservative-12.9 pts-4.0 pts-8.9 pts
    2016Canvey Island Winter GardensCIIP-0.8 pts-9.2 pts+8.4 pts
    2016Canvey Island NorthConservative-11.6 pts-4.0 pts-7.6 pts
    2016St. JamesLabour-7.4 pts-0.8 pts-6.5 pts
    2016Canvey Island SouthLabour-7.0 pts-0.8 pts-6.2 pts
    2016Canvey Island Winter GardensLabour-6.9 pts-0.8 pts-6.1 pts
    2016Canvey Island NorthLabour-6.4 pts-0.8 pts-5.6 pts
    2016St. PetersUK Independence Party (UKIP)+5.3 pts+10.4 pts-5.2 pts
    2016VictoriaConservative+1.1 pts-4.0 pts+5.1 pts
    2016BoyceLabour+4.2 pts-0.8 pts+5.1 pts
    2016Canvey Island CentralLabour-5.8 pts-0.8 pts-5.0 pts
    2016St Mary'sConservative-8.8 pts-4.0 pts-4.7 pts
    2016AppletonConservative-0.1 pts-4.0 pts+3.9 pts
    2016VictoriaLabour+2.9 pts-0.8 pts+3.7 pts
    2016Cedar HallLabour+1.7 pts-0.8 pts+2.5 pts
    2016St George'sLabour+1.7 pts-0.8 pts+2.5 pts
    2016St. PetersLabour-3.3 pts-0.8 pts-2.4 pts
    2016Cedar HallConservative-1.8 pts-4.0 pts+2.2 pts
    2016St. PetersConservative-2.0 pts-4.0 pts+2.0 pts
    2016AppletonLabour+1.1 pts-0.8 pts+1.9 pts
    2016Canvey Island EastLabour-2.2 pts-0.8 pts-1.4 pts
    2016BoyceConservative-4.0 pts-4.0 pts+0.1 pts
    2015Canvey Island EastCIIP-33.9 pts-5.9 pts-28.0 pts
    2015Canvey Island SouthCIIP-22.7 pts-5.9 pts-16.7 pts
    2015Canvey Island Winter GardensCIIP-17.4 pts-5.9 pts-11.4 pts
    2015Cedar HallUK Independence Party (UKIP)-15.9 pts-6.8 pts-9.1 pts
    2015Canvey Island WestCIIP-12.5 pts-5.9 pts-6.6 pts
    2015VictoriaUK Independence Party (UKIP)-13.3 pts-6.8 pts-6.4 pts
    2015BoyceConservative+4.7 pts+10.6 pts-5.9 pts
    2015Cedar HallConservative+16.5 pts+10.6 pts+5.9 pts
    2015Canvey Island NorthCIIP-11.5 pts-5.9 pts-5.6 pts
    2015Canvey Island Winter GardensLabour+5.2 pts-0.4 pts+5.6 pts
    2015St George'sConservative+15.6 pts+10.6 pts+5.0 pts
    2015St. JamesUK Independence Party (UKIP)-11.5 pts-6.8 pts-4.6 pts
    2015St. PetersUK Independence Party (UKIP)-11.3 pts-6.8 pts-4.4 pts
    2015Canvey Island CentralConservative+6.3 pts+10.6 pts-4.3 pts
    2015St George'sUK Independence Party (UKIP)-11.1 pts-6.8 pts-4.3 pts
    2015St George'sLabour-4.5 pts-0.4 pts-4.2 pts
    2015St Mary'sLabour-4.4 pts-0.4 pts-4.0 pts
    2015Canvey Island SouthConservative+6.8 pts+10.6 pts-3.8 pts
    2015St Mary'sUK Independence Party (UKIP)-3.8 pts-6.8 pts+3.1 pts
    2015AppletonUK Independence Party (UKIP)-9.5 pts-6.8 pts-2.6 pts
    2015St Mary'sConservative+8.1 pts+10.6 pts-2.5 pts
    2015Canvey Island CentralCIIP-8.4 pts-5.9 pts-2.5 pts
    2015Canvey Island CentralLabour+2.1 pts-0.4 pts+2.4 pts
    2015Canvey Island WestLabour+2.1 pts-0.4 pts+2.4 pts
    2015AppletonLabour-2.5 pts-0.4 pts-2.1 pts
    2015Canvey Island NorthConservative+12.4 pts+10.6 pts+1.8 pts
    2015St. PetersConservative+12.3 pts+10.6 pts+1.7 pts
    2015VictoriaConservative+12.2 pts+10.6 pts+1.6 pts
    2015Canvey Island Winter GardensConservative+12.2 pts+10.6 pts+1.6 pts
    2015VictoriaLabour+1.1 pts-0.4 pts+1.4 pts
    2015Canvey Island EastConservative+12.0 pts+10.6 pts+1.4 pts
    2015AppletonConservative+12.0 pts+10.6 pts+1.4 pts
    2015Canvey Island SouthLabour+0.9 pts-0.4 pts+1.3 pts
    2015BoyceUK Independence Party (UKIP)-5.6 pts-6.8 pts+1.3 pts
    2015BoyceLabour+0.9 pts-0.4 pts+1.3 pts
    2015St. JamesConservative+11.8 pts+10.6 pts+1.2 pts
    2015St. PetersLabour-1.1 pts-0.4 pts-0.7 pts
    2015Canvey Island NorthLabour-0.8 pts-0.4 pts-0.5 pts
    2015Canvey Island EastLabour-0.6 pts-0.4 pts-0.3 pts
    2015Cedar HallLabour-0.6 pts-0.4 pts-0.2 pts
    2015Canvey Island WestConservative+10.5 pts+10.6 pts-0.1 pts
    2015St. JamesLabour-0.4 pts-0.4 pts-0.0 pts