Cheltenham: wards that bucked the trend
Cheltenham: in 2024, 23 ward results beat the expected swing and 41 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Prestbury (+23.5 pts actual vs +4.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Prestbury | Green | +23.5 pts | +4.5 pts | +19.0 pts |
| 2024 | Swindon Village | Green | +21.7 pts | +4.5 pts | +17.1 pts |
| 2024 | Hesters Way | Green | +21.2 pts | +4.5 pts | +16.7 pts |
| 2024 | Oakley | Conservative | +10.7 pts | -3.1 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2024 | St Paul's | Green | -8.6 pts | +4.5 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2024 | St Peter's | Conservative | -14.6 pts | -3.1 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2024 | Battledown | Liberal Democrats | +7.9 pts | -2.9 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2024 | Hesters Way | Conservative | -13.9 pts | -3.1 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2024 | Leckhampton | Conservative | +6.5 pts | -3.1 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2024 | Leckhampton | Green | -5.0 pts | +4.5 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2024 | Up Hatherley | Conservative | +6.0 pts | -3.1 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2024 | Oakley | Liberal Democrats | -11.6 pts | -2.9 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2024 | Swindon Village | Liberal Democrats | -11.3 pts | -2.9 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2024 | Springbank | Conservative | +5.3 pts | -3.1 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2024 | St Paul's | Liberal Democrats | -11.2 pts | -2.9 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2024 | Prestbury | Conservative | -11.2 pts | -3.1 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2024 | Battledown | Green | -2.9 pts | +4.5 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2024 | Swindon Village | Conservative | -10.3 pts | -3.1 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2024 | Up Hatherley | Liberal Democrats | -10.0 pts | -2.9 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2024 | Hesters Way | Liberal Democrats | -8.9 pts | -2.9 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2024 | St Paul's | Conservative | +2.9 pts | -3.1 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2024 | Battledown | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -3.1 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2024 | Warden Hill | Liberal Democrats | +2.8 pts | -2.9 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2024 | Charlton Park | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | -2.9 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Warden Hill | Green | -0.2 pts | +4.5 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2024 | Lansdown | Liberal Democrats | -7.4 pts | -2.9 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2024 | St Peter's | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | -2.9 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2024 | Up Hatherley | Green | +0.1 pts | +4.5 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2024 | Springbank | Liberal Democrats | -7.3 pts | -2.9 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2024 | Charlton Park | Conservative | -7.3 pts | -3.1 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2024 | Charlton Park | Green | +0.5 pts | +4.5 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2024 | Park | Green | +0.8 pts | +4.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2024 | Lansdown | Conservative | -6.6 pts | -3.1 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2024 | Oakley | Labour | -2.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Leckhampton | Liberal Democrats | -6.1 pts | -2.9 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Charlton Kings | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | -2.9 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Pittville | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -3.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2024 | College | Green | +7.5 pts | +4.5 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2024 | St Mark's | Labour | -1.6 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2024 | St Mark's | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -3.1 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Springbank | Green | +2.0 pts | +4.5 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Prestbury | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -2.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | All Saints | Liberal Democrats | -5.2 pts | -2.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2024 | All Saints | Conservative | -0.9 pts | -3.1 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2024 | St Mark's | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | -2.9 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Hesters Way | Labour | -0.8 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2024 | College | Liberal Democrats | -4.9 pts | -2.9 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2024 | Charlton Kings | Conservative | -4.9 pts | -3.1 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2024 | Oakley | Green | +2.9 pts | +4.5 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Lansdown | Green | +3.2 pts | +4.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Park | Conservative | -1.8 pts | -3.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Warden Hill | Labour | +0.1 pts | +1.2 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2024 | All Saints | Green | +5.5 pts | +4.5 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2024 | Charlton Kings | Green | +3.6 pts | +4.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2024 | College | Labour | +1.8 pts | +1.2 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2024 | All Saints | Labour | +0.6 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2024 | St Peter's | Labour | +1.7 pts | +1.2 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Warden Hill | Conservative | -2.7 pts | -3.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2024 | Park | Liberal Democrats | -3.3 pts | -2.9 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2024 | Pittville | Liberal Democrats | -2.6 pts | -2.9 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2024 | St Peter's | Green | +4.3 pts | +4.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2024 | Pittville | Green | +4.3 pts | +4.5 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Charlton Kings | Labour | +1.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2024 | College | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -3.1 pts | -0.1 pts |