Psephology.AI

    Cherwell: wards that bucked the trend

    Cherwell: in 2024, 28 ward results beat the expected swing and 30 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Bicester West (+39.5 pts actual vs +1.1 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Cherwell: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2024Bicester WestIndependent+39.5 pts+1.1 pts+38.3 pts
    2024Bicester EastGreen-30.6 pts-4.7 pts-25.9 pts
    2024Kidlington WestLiberal Democrats+25.8 pts+5.3 pts+20.4 pts
    2024Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteLiberal Democrats-12.7 pts+5.3 pts-18.1 pts
    2024Kidlington EastGreen-20.6 pts-4.7 pts-15.9 pts
    2024Bicester WestGreen-20.4 pts-4.7 pts-15.7 pts
    2024Bicester WestConservative-18.5 pts-3.3 pts-15.2 pts
    2024Kidlington WestGreen-19.5 pts-4.7 pts-14.8 pts
    2024Bicester South & AmbrosdenConservative-17.7 pts-3.3 pts-14.4 pts
    2024Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonLiberal Democrats+16.8 pts+5.3 pts+11.5 pts
    2024DeddingtonLiberal Democrats-6.1 pts+5.3 pts-11.5 pts
    2024Kidlington EastConservative+7.2 pts-3.3 pts+10.5 pts
    2024Banbury Cross & NeithropLabour-6.1 pts+2.3 pts-8.5 pts
    2024Fringford and HeyfordsLiberal Democrats+13.5 pts+5.3 pts+8.2 pts
    2024Launton & OtmoorLiberal Democrats-2.2 pts+5.3 pts-7.6 pts
    2024Fringford and HeyfordsLabour-5.2 pts+2.3 pts-7.5 pts
    2024Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonLiberal Democrats-2.2 pts+5.3 pts-7.5 pts
    2024Bicester North & CaversfieldLiberal Democrats-2.1 pts+5.3 pts-7.4 pts
    2024Bicester WestLabour-4.8 pts+2.3 pts-7.1 pts
    2024Bicester North & CaversfieldLabour-4.8 pts+2.3 pts-7.1 pts
    2024Banbury Cross & NeithropLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts+5.3 pts-6.3 pts
    2024Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonConservative+3.0 pts-3.3 pts+6.3 pts
    2024Banbury Cross & NeithropGreen+1.5 pts-4.7 pts+6.2 pts
    2024Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonLabour-3.4 pts+2.3 pts-5.7 pts
    2024Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteConservative+1.9 pts-3.3 pts+5.2 pts
    2024Banbury HardwickConservative-8.4 pts-3.3 pts-5.1 pts
    2024DeddingtonGreen+0.2 pts-4.7 pts+4.9 pts
    2024Banbury RuscoteGreen+0.1 pts-4.7 pts+4.8 pts
    2024Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonGreen+0.1 pts-4.7 pts+4.8 pts
    2024Banbury RuscoteLiberal Democrats+0.5 pts+5.3 pts-4.8 pts
    2024Banbury Grimsbury & HightownIndependent+5.9 pts+1.1 pts+4.7 pts
    2024Banbury Cross & NeithropConservative+1.4 pts-3.3 pts+4.7 pts
    2024Banbury Grimsbury & HightownGreen-0.2 pts-4.7 pts+4.6 pts
    2024Bicester EastConservative-7.4 pts-3.3 pts-4.1 pts
    2024Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonLabour-1.7 pts+2.3 pts-4.0 pts
    2024Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteLabour+6.1 pts+2.3 pts+3.8 pts
    2024DeddingtonLabour+5.9 pts+2.3 pts+3.6 pts
    2024Banbury RuscoteIndependent+4.6 pts+1.1 pts+3.5 pts
    2024DeddingtonConservative+0.1 pts-3.3 pts+3.4 pts
    2024Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonConservative-6.5 pts-3.3 pts-3.2 pts
    2024Banbury Cross & NeithropIndependent+4.3 pts+1.1 pts+3.1 pts
    2024Banbury HardwickGreen-1.8 pts-4.7 pts+2.9 pts
    2024Banbury Grimsbury & HightownConservative-0.5 pts-3.3 pts+2.8 pts
    2024Fringford and HeyfordsConservative-6.0 pts-3.3 pts-2.7 pts
    2024Launton & OtmoorLabour-0.1 pts+2.3 pts-2.5 pts
    2024Fringford and HeyfordsGreen-2.4 pts-4.7 pts+2.4 pts
    2024Bicester North & CaversfieldConservative-1.3 pts-3.3 pts+2.0 pts
    2024Banbury RuscoteConservative-5.3 pts-3.3 pts-2.0 pts
    2024Banbury HardwickLabour+4.1 pts+2.3 pts+1.8 pts
    2024Bicester South & AmbrosdenLabour+3.9 pts+2.3 pts+1.6 pts
    2024Bicester EastLabour+3.8 pts+2.3 pts+1.5 pts
    2024Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonIndependent+2.4 pts+1.1 pts+1.3 pts
    2024Kidlington WestLabour+1.1 pts+2.3 pts-1.2 pts
    2024Bicester WestLiberal Democrats+4.3 pts+5.3 pts-1.1 pts
    2024Kidlington WestConservative-3.8 pts-3.3 pts-0.5 pts
    2024Banbury Grimsbury & HightownLiberal Democrats+5.7 pts+5.3 pts+0.4 pts
    2024Bicester South & AmbrosdenLiberal Democrats+5.0 pts+5.3 pts-0.4 pts
    2024Launton & OtmoorConservative-3.6 pts-3.3 pts-0.3 pts
    2023Bicester WestIndependent-32.7 pts+1.3 pts-34.0 pts
    2023Bicester North & CaversfieldLiberal Democrats+19.8 pts-4.2 pts+23.9 pts
    2023Kidlington WestLiberal Democrats-25.0 pts-4.2 pts-20.9 pts
    2023Bicester South & AmbrosdenConservative+11.9 pts-3.3 pts+15.2 pts
    2023Fringford and HeyfordsLiberal Democrats+10.9 pts-4.2 pts+15.0 pts
    2023Fringford and HeyfordsGreen-6.6 pts+7.5 pts-14.1 pts
    2023Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonLiberal Democrats+5.6 pts-4.2 pts+9.7 pts
    2023Banbury Cross & NeithropConservative-12.6 pts-3.3 pts-9.2 pts
    2023DeddingtonLabour+4.9 pts-4.4 pts+9.2 pts
    2023Kidlington EastConservative-12.2 pts-3.3 pts-8.9 pts
    2023DeddingtonGreen-0.7 pts+7.5 pts-8.2 pts
    2023Banbury Cross & NeithropLabour+3.8 pts-4.4 pts+8.1 pts
    2023Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteConservative+4.6 pts-3.3 pts+7.9 pts
    2023Launton & OtmoorLabour+3.4 pts-4.4 pts+7.7 pts
    2023Launton & OtmoorConservative+4.0 pts-3.3 pts+7.3 pts
    2023Banbury HardwickLabour+2.9 pts-4.4 pts+7.2 pts
    2023Banbury RuscoteLabour+2.8 pts-4.4 pts+7.2 pts
    2023Bicester EastConservative-10.1 pts-3.3 pts-6.8 pts
    2023Bicester South & AmbrosdenLiberal Democrats-10.8 pts-4.2 pts-6.7 pts
    2023Banbury Grimsbury & HightownGreen+0.9 pts+7.5 pts-6.6 pts
    2023Bicester EastGreen+14.1 pts+7.5 pts+6.6 pts
    2023Bicester WestLabour+2.2 pts-4.4 pts+6.5 pts
    2023Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonConservative-9.8 pts-3.3 pts-6.5 pts
    2023Banbury HardwickConservative+2.0 pts-3.3 pts+5.3 pts
    2023Bicester WestConservative+1.8 pts-3.3 pts+5.1 pts
    2023Banbury RuscoteConservative-8.3 pts-3.3 pts-4.9 pts
    2023Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonLabour-9.2 pts-4.4 pts-4.9 pts
    2023Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonLabour-0.1 pts-4.4 pts+4.2 pts
    2023Banbury HardwickGreen+3.3 pts+7.5 pts-4.2 pts
    2023Banbury Grimsbury & HightownLiberal Democrats-0.0 pts-4.2 pts+4.1 pts
    2023Bicester North & CaversfieldConservative-7.2 pts-3.3 pts-3.9 pts
    2023Kidlington WestConservative-7.2 pts-3.3 pts-3.9 pts
    2023Kidlington WestLabour-0.5 pts-4.4 pts+3.8 pts
    2023Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteLiberal Democrats-0.7 pts-4.2 pts+3.4 pts
    2023Bicester South & AmbrosdenLabour-1.0 pts-4.4 pts+3.3 pts
    2023Launton & OtmoorLiberal Democrats-7.3 pts-4.2 pts-3.2 pts
    2023Bicester North & CaversfieldLabour-1.3 pts-4.4 pts+3.0 pts
    2023Fringford and HeyfordsConservative-0.3 pts-3.3 pts+3.0 pts
    2023Banbury Grimsbury & HightownConservative-6.1 pts-3.3 pts-2.8 pts
    2023Kidlington EastGreen+10.2 pts+7.5 pts+2.7 pts
    2023Banbury Cross & NeithropLiberal Democrats-6.5 pts-4.2 pts-2.4 pts
    2023DeddingtonLiberal Democrats-2.0 pts-4.2 pts+2.1 pts
    2023Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonLiberal Democrats-2.1 pts-4.2 pts+2.1 pts
    2023Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteLabour-6.4 pts-4.4 pts-2.0 pts
    2023Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonConservative-4.9 pts-3.3 pts-1.6 pts
    2023Banbury RuscoteLiberal Democrats-5.5 pts-4.2 pts-1.3 pts
    2023DeddingtonConservative-2.1 pts-3.3 pts+1.2 pts
    2023Fringford and HeyfordsLabour-3.9 pts-4.4 pts+0.4 pts
    2023Bicester EastLabour-3.9 pts-4.4 pts+0.4 pts
    2019Launton & OtmoorLabour+18.5 pts-2.7 pts+21.2 pts
    2019Bicester EastGreen+21.3 pts+2.0 pts+19.3 pts
    2019Bicester South & AmbrosdenIndependent+19.7 pts+2.6 pts+17.1 pts
    2019Bicester WestIndependent+17.1 pts+2.6 pts+14.4 pts
    2019Banbury HardwickLabour-16.0 pts-2.7 pts-13.3 pts
    2019Banbury Grimsbury & HightownGreen+13.8 pts+2.0 pts+11.8 pts
    2019Bicester EastLabour-15.4 pts-3.7 pts-11.7 pts
    2019Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonLiberal Democrats+16.9 pts+6.5 pts+10.4 pts
    2019Kidlington EastLabour-11.6 pts-2.7 pts-8.9 pts
    2019Kidlington EastGreen+10.5 pts+2.0 pts+8.5 pts
    2019Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonLiberal Democrats+14.7 pts+6.5 pts+8.2 pts
    2019Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteGreen+9.9 pts+2.0 pts+7.9 pts
    2019Bicester North & CaversfieldGreen+9.9 pts+2.0 pts+7.9 pts
    2019Banbury HardwickConservative+0.8 pts-7.0 pts+7.9 pts
    2019Bicester North & CaversfieldLabour-10.4 pts-2.7 pts-7.7 pts
    2019Banbury Cross & NeithropConservative+0.5 pts-7.0 pts+7.6 pts
    2019Kidlington WestLiberal Democrats-0.7 pts+6.5 pts-7.2 pts
    2019Banbury RuscoteConservative-0.5 pts-7.0 pts+6.5 pts
    2019Bicester EastConservative-13.3 pts-7.0 pts-6.3 pts
    2019DeddingtonGreen+8.0 pts+2.0 pts+6.0 pts
    2019Launton & OtmoorConservative-1.0 pts-7.0 pts+6.0 pts
    2019Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteLiberal Democrats+1.6 pts+6.5 pts-5.0 pts
    2019Kidlington WestConservative-2.4 pts-7.0 pts+4.6 pts
    2019Fringford and HeyfordsConservative-11.4 pts-7.0 pts-4.3 pts
    2019DeddingtonLabour-6.7 pts-2.7 pts-4.0 pts
    2019Bicester South & AmbrosdenLabour-6.2 pts-2.7 pts-3.4 pts
    2019Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonConservative-3.9 pts-7.0 pts+3.1 pts
    2019Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonConservative-4.6 pts-7.0 pts+2.4 pts
    2019Banbury Grimsbury & HightownLabour-0.4 pts-2.7 pts+2.3 pts
    2019Bicester WestLabour-4.5 pts-2.7 pts-1.8 pts
    2019Banbury Cross & NeithropLiberal Democrats+8.1 pts+6.5 pts+1.6 pts
    2019Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteLabour-5.2 pts-3.7 pts-1.5 pts
    2019Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonLabour-4.2 pts-2.7 pts-1.4 pts
    2019Banbury HardwickGreen+3.4 pts+2.0 pts+1.4 pts
    2019Bicester North & CaversfieldConservative-5.7 pts-7.0 pts+1.3 pts
    2019DeddingtonLiberal Democrats+5.2 pts+6.5 pts-1.3 pts
    2019Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonLabour-4.0 pts-2.7 pts-1.2 pts
    2019Banbury Grimsbury & HightownConservative-8.2 pts-7.0 pts-1.2 pts
    2019Kidlington WestLabour-1.8 pts-2.7 pts+1.0 pts
    2019Bicester South & AmbrosdenConservative-7.8 pts-7.0 pts-0.7 pts
    2019Bicester WestConservative-6.3 pts-7.0 pts+0.7 pts
    2019Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteConservative-6.4 pts-7.0 pts+0.6 pts
    2019Banbury Cross & NeithropLabour-2.2 pts-2.7 pts+0.5 pts
    2019DeddingtonConservative-6.5 pts-7.0 pts+0.5 pts
    2019Bicester North & CaversfieldLiberal Democrats+6.2 pts+6.5 pts-0.3 pts
    2019Kidlington EastConservative-6.8 pts-7.0 pts+0.2 pts
    2019Fringford and HeyfordsGreen+1.8 pts+2.0 pts-0.2 pts
    2018Kidlington EastGreen+24.1 pts+1.0 pts+23.1 pts
    2018Bicester South & AmbrosdenIndependent+21.1 pts+0.7 pts+20.4 pts
    2018Kidlington WestLiberal Democrats+24.2 pts+4.6 pts+19.6 pts
    2018Banbury HardwickLabour+6.8 pts-7.9 pts+14.7 pts
    2018Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteGreen-13.1 pts+1.0 pts-14.1 pts
    2018Kidlington EastConservative-10.1 pts+0.4 pts-10.4 pts
    2018Banbury Grimsbury & HightownLabour+2.0 pts-7.9 pts+9.9 pts
    2018Bicester South & AmbrosdenConservative-8.9 pts+0.4 pts-9.3 pts
    2018Kidlington EastLabour+1.1 pts-7.9 pts+9.0 pts
    2018Bicester WestLabour-0.1 pts-7.9 pts+7.8 pts
    2018Launton & OtmoorConservative+7.9 pts+0.4 pts+7.5 pts
    2018Kidlington WestConservative-6.5 pts+0.4 pts-6.9 pts
    2018Banbury RuscoteConservative+7.1 pts+0.4 pts+6.7 pts
    2018DeddingtonConservative-6.3 pts+0.4 pts-6.7 pts
    2018Fringford and HeyfordsLabour-1.3 pts-7.9 pts+6.6 pts
    2018Launton & OtmoorLiberal Democrats+10.9 pts+4.6 pts+6.3 pts
    2018Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonLabour-1.9 pts-7.9 pts+6.0 pts
    2018Banbury Grimsbury & HightownLiberal Democrats-1.4 pts+4.6 pts-6.0 pts
    2018DeddingtonLabour-2.3 pts-7.9 pts+5.6 pts
    2018Bicester WestConservative+6.0 pts+0.4 pts+5.6 pts
    2018Banbury Cross & NeithropLabour-2.9 pts-7.9 pts+5.0 pts
    2018Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonLabour-3.2 pts-7.9 pts+4.7 pts
    2018Bicester North & CaversfieldLabour-3.3 pts-7.9 pts+4.6 pts
    2018Bicester EastGreen+5.2 pts+1.0 pts+4.2 pts
    2018Bicester South & AmbrosdenLabour-3.8 pts-7.9 pts+4.1 pts
    2018Launton & OtmoorLabour-4.0 pts-7.9 pts+3.9 pts
    2018Fringford and HeyfordsGreen+4.9 pts+1.0 pts+3.9 pts
    2018Banbury Grimsbury & HightownConservative+3.5 pts+0.4 pts+3.2 pts
    2018Banbury HardwickGreen+3.9 pts+1.0 pts+3.0 pts
    2018Banbury HardwickConservative+3.1 pts+0.4 pts+2.8 pts
    2018Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonLiberal Democrats+2.0 pts+4.6 pts-2.6 pts
    2018Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteConservative+2.9 pts+0.4 pts+2.5 pts
    2018Banbury Cross & NeithropGreen-1.5 pts+1.0 pts-2.5 pts
    2018Bicester South & AmbrosdenGreen-1.5 pts+1.0 pts-2.5 pts
    2018Fringford and HeyfordsConservative+2.7 pts+0.4 pts+2.3 pts
    2018Bicester WestIndependent-1.6 pts+0.7 pts-2.3 pts
    2018Banbury Cross & NeithropConservative-1.8 pts+0.4 pts-2.2 pts
    2018Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonConservative-1.4 pts+0.4 pts-1.8 pts
    2018Adderbury, Bloxham and BodicoteLiberal Democrats+6.3 pts+4.6 pts+1.6 pts
    2018Bicester EastConservative+1.8 pts+0.4 pts+1.5 pts
    2018Bicester North & CaversfieldConservative-1.0 pts+0.4 pts-1.4 pts
    2018Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonConservative-0.6 pts+0.4 pts-0.9 pts
    2018DeddingtonGreen+1.9 pts+1.0 pts+0.9 pts
    2018Banbury Grimsbury & HightownGreen+1.9 pts+1.0 pts+0.9 pts
    2018Bicester WestGreen+0.1 pts+1.0 pts-0.8 pts
    2018Banbury RuscoteGreen+1.7 pts+1.0 pts+0.7 pts
    2018Kidlington WestLabour-8.5 pts-7.9 pts-0.6 pts
    2018Banbury Calthorpe & EasingtonGreen+0.4 pts+1.0 pts-0.6 pts
    2018Cropredy, Sibfords and WroxtonGreen+1.5 pts+1.0 pts+0.5 pts
    2018Bicester North & CaversfieldGreen+1.3 pts+1.0 pts+0.3 pts