Psephology.AI

    Chorley: wards that bucked the trend

    Chorley: in 2024, 21 ward results beat the expected swing and 23 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Adlington and Anderton (-70.5 pts actual vs -9.4 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Chorley: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2024Adlington and AndertonLabour-70.5 pts-9.4 pts-61.1 pts
    2024EuxtonLabour-54.9 pts-9.4 pts-45.5 pts
    2024Chorley North WestLabour-31.2 pts-9.4 pts-21.8 pts
    2024Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardLabour+12.3 pts-9.4 pts+21.7 pts
    2024Clayton West and CuerdenLabour+6.4 pts-9.4 pts+15.8 pts
    2024Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthLabour+5.5 pts-9.4 pts+14.9 pts
    2024Chorley South WestLabour+5.4 pts-9.4 pts+14.7 pts
    2024EuxtonConservative-12.9 pts-0.8 pts-12.1 pts
    2024Chorley North EastConservative+10.7 pts-0.8 pts+11.4 pts
    2024Chorley South East & Heath CharnockLabour+1.6 pts-9.4 pts+11.0 pts
    2024Buckshaw and WhittleConservative+9.5 pts-0.8 pts+10.3 pts
    2024Chorley EastLabour-19.3 pts-9.4 pts-9.9 pts
    2024Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardConservative-10.4 pts-0.8 pts-9.6 pts
    2024Chorley North and AstleyLabour+0.2 pts-9.4 pts+9.6 pts
    2024Chorley North EastLabour-16.6 pts-9.4 pts-7.2 pts
    2024Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthConservative-6.6 pts-0.8 pts-5.8 pts
    2024Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonLabour-3.6 pts-9.4 pts+5.8 pts
    2024Chorley North EastGreen+4.8 pts-0.0 pts+4.9 pts
    2024Clayton West and CuerdenConservative-5.0 pts-0.8 pts-4.3 pts
    2024Chorley North and AstleyConservative-4.9 pts-0.8 pts-4.1 pts
    2024Chorley South WestGreen-3.4 pts-0.0 pts-3.3 pts
    2024Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthGreen+3.1 pts-0.0 pts+3.2 pts
    2024Chorley North WestConservative-3.7 pts-0.8 pts-2.9 pts
    2024Buckshaw and WhittleLabour-11.9 pts-9.4 pts-2.5 pts
    2024Buckshaw and WhittleGreen+2.3 pts-0.0 pts+2.4 pts
    2024Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonConservative+1.5 pts-0.8 pts+2.3 pts
    2024Chorley North WestGreen-1.8 pts-0.0 pts-1.8 pts
    2024Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts-0.5 pts+1.7 pts
    2024Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthLiberal Democrats-2.1 pts-0.5 pts-1.7 pts
    2024EuxtonGreen+1.5 pts-0.0 pts+1.5 pts
    2024Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardLiberal Democrats-1.7 pts-0.5 pts-1.3 pts
    2024CoppullConservative+0.5 pts-0.8 pts+1.2 pts
    2024Chorley North and AstleyGreen-1.2 pts-0.0 pts-1.2 pts
    2024Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonGreen+0.8 pts-0.0 pts+0.9 pts
    2024Chorley South East & Heath CharnockGreen+0.8 pts-0.0 pts+0.9 pts
    2024Adlington and AndertonConservative-1.6 pts-0.8 pts-0.8 pts
    2024Chorley South WestConservative-0.0 pts-0.8 pts+0.7 pts
    2024Clayton West and CuerdenGreen-0.7 pts-0.0 pts-0.6 pts
    2024Chorley EastConservative-0.2 pts-0.8 pts+0.6 pts
    2024Chorley South East & Heath CharnockConservative-1.2 pts-0.8 pts-0.4 pts
    2024Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardGreen-0.2 pts-0.0 pts-0.2 pts
    2024Clayton West and CuerdenLiberal Democrats-0.6 pts-0.5 pts-0.2 pts
    2024CoppullGreen-0.2 pts-0.0 pts-0.1 pts
    2024Adlington and AndertonGreen+0.0 pts-0.0 pts+0.1 pts
    2023Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthLiberal Democrats-17.7 pts-0.4 pts-17.3 pts
    2023Chorley North EastLabour+12.6 pts-0.7 pts+13.3 pts
    2023Chorley EastLabour+11.9 pts-0.7 pts+12.7 pts
    2023Chorley North EastGreen-10.3 pts+1.9 pts-12.2 pts
    2023Chorley North WestGreen+13.4 pts+1.9 pts+11.5 pts
    2023Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthLabour+10.3 pts-0.7 pts+11.0 pts
    2023EuxtonConservative+5.4 pts-4.4 pts+9.9 pts
    2023Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthConservative+5.2 pts-4.4 pts+9.6 pts
    2023Adlington and AndertonLabour+8.6 pts-0.7 pts+9.3 pts
    2023Chorley North WestConservative-11.2 pts-4.4 pts-6.7 pts
    2023EuxtonLabour-7.1 pts-0.7 pts-6.4 pts
    2023Buckshaw and WhittleLabour+5.4 pts-0.7 pts+6.1 pts
    2023Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonConservative-10.6 pts-4.4 pts-6.1 pts
    2023Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonLabour+5.2 pts-0.7 pts+5.9 pts
    2023Adlington and AndertonConservative-9.9 pts-4.4 pts-5.4 pts
    2023Chorley North and AstleyConservative-0.8 pts-4.4 pts+3.7 pts
    2023Chorley South East & Heath CharnockLabour+2.8 pts-0.7 pts+3.6 pts
    2023Chorley EastConservative-1.2 pts-4.4 pts+3.2 pts
    2023Clayton West and CuerdenGreen-1.2 pts+1.9 pts-3.1 pts
    2023Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonGreen-1.0 pts+1.9 pts-2.9 pts
    2023Clayton West and CuerdenConservative-1.6 pts-4.4 pts+2.9 pts
    2023Chorley South WestGreen+4.7 pts+1.9 pts+2.8 pts
    2023Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardLiberal Democrats+2.2 pts-0.4 pts+2.5 pts
    2023Chorley South East & Heath CharnockGreen-0.6 pts+1.9 pts-2.5 pts
    2023Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardConservative-2.1 pts-4.4 pts+2.4 pts
    2023Chorley South WestConservative-6.6 pts-4.4 pts-2.2 pts
    2023Buckshaw and WhittleGreen-0.2 pts+1.9 pts-2.1 pts
    2023Chorley North EastConservative-2.3 pts-4.4 pts+2.1 pts
    2023Chorley North WestLabour-2.8 pts-0.7 pts-2.0 pts
    2023Clayton West and CuerdenLabour-2.2 pts-0.7 pts-1.4 pts
    2023Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardGreen+0.6 pts+1.9 pts-1.3 pts
    2023Chorley North and AstleyGreen+0.6 pts+1.9 pts-1.3 pts
    2023Chorley South East & Heath CharnockConservative-3.3 pts-4.4 pts+1.1 pts
    2023Chorley North and AstleyLabour+0.1 pts-0.7 pts+0.9 pts
    2023Buckshaw and WhittleConservative-5.2 pts-4.4 pts-0.7 pts
    2023Chorley South WestLabour-0.1 pts-0.7 pts+0.7 pts
    2023CoppullGreen+2.6 pts+1.9 pts+0.7 pts
    2023Adlington and AndertonGreen+1.3 pts+1.9 pts-0.6 pts
    2023CoppullConservative-3.9 pts-4.4 pts+0.5 pts
    2023Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthGreen+2.2 pts+1.9 pts+0.3 pts
    2023EuxtonGreen+1.7 pts+1.9 pts-0.3 pts
    2023Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardLabour-0.7 pts-0.7 pts+0.1 pts
    2022Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthLiberal Democrats+18.8 pts+0.1 pts+18.6 pts
    2022Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonConservative+4.2 pts-6.7 pts+11.0 pts
    2022Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthLabour-4.9 pts+5.9 pts-10.8 pts
    2022Buckshaw and WhittleLabour+16.4 pts+5.9 pts+10.6 pts
    2022Chorley South WestLabour-4.6 pts+5.9 pts-10.5 pts
    2022Clayton West and CuerdenLabour+15.4 pts+5.9 pts+9.5 pts
    2022Chorley South WestGreen+11.1 pts+2.2 pts+8.9 pts
    2022Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonLabour+14.4 pts+5.9 pts+8.5 pts
    2022EuxtonLabour+14.2 pts+5.9 pts+8.3 pts
    2022EuxtonConservative-14.9 pts-6.7 pts-8.2 pts
    2022Chorley North WestConservative+0.4 pts-6.7 pts+7.1 pts
    2022Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthConservative-12.7 pts-6.7 pts-6.0 pts
    2022Chorley North WestGreen-2.9 pts+2.2 pts-5.1 pts
    2022Clayton West and CuerdenConservative-11.7 pts-6.7 pts-4.9 pts
    2022Chorley EastLabour+1.3 pts+5.9 pts-4.6 pts
    2022Chorley North EastLabour+1.5 pts+5.9 pts-4.3 pts
    2022Chorley South East & Heath CharnockGreen-1.9 pts+2.2 pts-4.1 pts
    2022Adlington and AndertonConservative-2.8 pts-6.7 pts+3.9 pts
    2022Chorley EastGreen+5.7 pts+2.2 pts+3.5 pts
    2022Buckshaw and WhittleConservative-10.1 pts-6.7 pts-3.4 pts
    2022Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton SouthGreen-1.2 pts+2.2 pts-3.4 pts
    2022Chorley North WestLabour+2.6 pts+5.9 pts-3.3 pts
    2022Chorley North and AstleyGreen+5.0 pts+2.2 pts+2.8 pts
    2022Chorley North EastGreen+4.8 pts+2.2 pts+2.6 pts
    2022Adlington and AndertonLabour+3.3 pts+5.9 pts-2.5 pts
    2022Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardConservative-4.6 pts-6.7 pts+2.1 pts
    2022Chorley North and AstleyLabour+7.9 pts+5.9 pts+2.1 pts
    2022Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardGreen+0.3 pts+2.2 pts-1.8 pts
    2022Chorley South East & Heath CharnockTUSC+1.9 pts+0.1 pts+1.7 pts
    2022Buckshaw and WhittleGreen+3.9 pts+2.2 pts+1.7 pts
    2022Chorley South East & Heath CharnockConservative-5.2 pts-6.7 pts+1.5 pts
    2022Clayton West and CuerdenGreen+0.8 pts+2.2 pts-1.4 pts
    2022CoppullLabour+4.7 pts+5.9 pts-1.2 pts
    2022Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardLabour+4.8 pts+5.9 pts-1.1 pts
    2022Chorley South East & Heath CharnockLabour+5.2 pts+5.9 pts-0.7 pts
    2022Eccleston, Heskin and Charnock RichardLiberal Democrats-0.5 pts+0.1 pts-0.6 pts
    2022EuxtonGreen+2.7 pts+2.2 pts+0.5 pts
    2022CoppullConservative-7.2 pts-6.7 pts-0.5 pts
    2022Chorley North EastConservative-6.3 pts-6.7 pts+0.4 pts
    2022CoppullGreen+2.5 pts+2.2 pts+0.3 pts
    2022Chorley EastConservative-7.0 pts-6.7 pts-0.3 pts
    2022Chorley South WestConservative-6.5 pts-6.7 pts+0.2 pts
    2022Adlington and AndertonGreen+2.0 pts+2.2 pts-0.2 pts
    2022Chorley North and AstleyConservative-6.7 pts-6.7 pts+0.1 pts
    2022Clayton East, Brindle and HoghtonGreen+2.2 pts+2.2 pts0.0 pts
    2019Chorley North WestLabour+23.5 pts-5.5 pts+29.1 pts
    2019Clayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-WoodsLabour+20.0 pts-5.5 pts+25.5 pts
    2019Chorley North WestConservative+20.6 pts-3.8 pts+24.4 pts
    2019Clayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-WoodsConservative-26.0 pts-3.8 pts-22.1 pts
    2019Chorley EastLabour+4.5 pts-5.5 pts+10.0 pts
    2019CoppullConservative+4.2 pts-3.8 pts+8.0 pts
    2019Chorley North EastConservative+3.9 pts-3.8 pts+7.8 pts
    2019Eccleston and MawdesleyUK Independence Party (UKIP)+10.2 pts+2.7 pts+7.4 pts
    2019Euxton SouthConservative+3.2 pts-3.8 pts+7.0 pts
    2019Chorley North EastLabour+1.3 pts-5.5 pts+6.9 pts
    2019Chorley South WestLabour-11.9 pts-5.5 pts-6.4 pts
    2019Astley and BuckshawConservative-10.0 pts-3.8 pts-6.2 pts
    2019ChisnallConservative-9.5 pts-3.8 pts-5.7 pts
    2019Clayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-WoodsLiberal Democrats+7.4 pts+1.7 pts+5.7 pts
    2019Adlington and AndertonLiberal Democrats+6.9 pts+1.7 pts+5.2 pts
    2019Clayton-le-Woods NorthConservative-8.7 pts-3.8 pts-4.9 pts
    2019Eccleston and MawdesleyConservative+0.3 pts-3.8 pts+4.2 pts
    2019Chorley South EastConservative+0.2 pts-3.8 pts+4.0 pts
    2019Eccleston and MawdesleyLabour-1.8 pts-5.5 pts+3.7 pts
    2019Clayton-le-Woods NorthLabour-8.9 pts-5.5 pts-3.4 pts
    2019Chorley South EastLabour-8.5 pts-5.5 pts-3.0 pts
    2019Euxton SouthLabour-3.2 pts-5.5 pts+2.3 pts
    2019Clayton-le-Woods West and CuerdenLabour-3.2 pts-5.5 pts+2.3 pts
    2019Adlington and AndertonConservative-1.9 pts-3.8 pts+1.9 pts
    2019Chorley South WestLiberal Democrats+3.2 pts+1.7 pts+1.5 pts
    2019Clayton-le-Woods West and CuerdenConservative-5.1 pts-3.8 pts-1.3 pts
    2019CoppullLabour-4.2 pts-5.5 pts+1.3 pts
    2019Chorley South WestConservative-3.1 pts-3.8 pts+0.7 pts
    2019Chorley EastConservative-4.5 pts-3.8 pts-0.6 pts
    2019Adlington and AndertonLabour-5.0 pts-5.5 pts+0.5 pts
    2015Chorley North WestLabour+31.4 pts-0.7 pts+32.1 pts
    2015Clayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-WoodsConservative-15.9 pts+6.8 pts-22.7 pts
    2015Chorley North WestConservative+27.2 pts+6.8 pts+20.4 pts
    2015ChisnallLabour-18.6 pts-0.7 pts-17.8 pts
    2015Chorley North EastLabour-16.0 pts-0.7 pts-15.2 pts
    2015Chorley South WestLabour-15.6 pts-0.7 pts-14.9 pts
    2015Chorley North EastConservative-6.1 pts+6.8 pts-12.9 pts
    2015ChisnallConservative+18.6 pts+6.8 pts+11.7 pts
    2015Chorley South WestConservative-2.4 pts+6.8 pts-9.2 pts
    2015CoppullConservative+15.5 pts+6.8 pts+8.7 pts
    2015Eccleston and MawdesleyUK Independence Party (UKIP)-7.2 pts+0.5 pts-7.7 pts
    2015Chorley EastUK Independence Party (UKIP)-7.1 pts+0.5 pts-7.6 pts
    2015CoppullLabour+6.8 pts-0.7 pts+7.5 pts
    2015Astley and BuckshawLabour-8.1 pts-0.7 pts-7.4 pts
    2015Clayton-le-Woods NorthLabour+6.1 pts-0.7 pts+6.8 pts
    2015Clayton-le-Woods West and CuerdenConservative+0.6 pts+6.8 pts-6.2 pts
    2015Adlington and AndertonUK Independence Party (UKIP)-5.7 pts+0.5 pts-6.1 pts
    2015Euxton SouthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-5.4 pts+0.5 pts-5.9 pts
    2015Astley and BuckshawConservative+12.5 pts+6.8 pts+5.6 pts
    2015Clayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-WoodsLabour+4.2 pts-0.7 pts+5.0 pts
    2015Astley and BuckshawUK Independence Party (UKIP)-4.4 pts+0.5 pts-4.8 pts
    2015Clayton-le-Woods NorthConservative+11.3 pts+6.8 pts+4.5 pts
    2015Chorley South EastUK Independence Party (UKIP)-4.0 pts+0.5 pts-4.5 pts
    2015Clayton-le-Woods NorthGreen+4.4 pts+0.6 pts+3.7 pts
    2015Chorley EastGreen+3.6 pts+0.6 pts+3.0 pts
    2015Euxton SouthConservative+4.0 pts+6.8 pts-2.8 pts
    2015Eccleston and MawdesleyLabour+2.0 pts-0.7 pts+2.7 pts
    2015Clayton-le-Woods NorthLiberal Democrats+3.1 pts+0.6 pts+2.5 pts
    2015Chorley EastLabour+1.5 pts-0.7 pts+2.2 pts
    2015Euxton SouthLabour+1.4 pts-0.7 pts+2.2 pts
    2015Adlington and AndertonLiberal Democrats+2.7 pts+0.6 pts+2.1 pts
    2015Adlington and AndertonConservative+4.8 pts+6.8 pts-2.0 pts
    2015Clayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-WoodsLiberal Democrats-1.3 pts+0.6 pts-2.0 pts
    2015CoppullUK Independence Party (UKIP)+2.2 pts+0.5 pts+1.8 pts
    2015Eccleston and MawdesleyConservative+5.3 pts+6.8 pts-1.5 pts
    2015Chorley South EastConservative+5.4 pts+6.8 pts-1.4 pts
    2015Chorley South EastLabour+0.6 pts-0.7 pts+1.4 pts
    2015Adlington and AndertonLabour-1.8 pts-0.7 pts-1.1 pts
    2015Chorley EastConservative+7.5 pts+6.8 pts+0.7 pts
    2015Chorley South EastLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts+0.6 pts+0.7 pts
    2015Clayton-le-Woods West and CuerdenLabour-0.6 pts-0.7 pts+0.1 pts