Psephology.AI

    Colchester: wards that bucked the trend

    Colchester: in 2024, 44 ward results beat the expected swing and 27 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Greenstead (-27.8 pts actual vs +3.3 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Colchester: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2024GreensteadLabour-27.8 pts+3.3 pts-31.0 pts
    2024WivenhoeLabour+21.2 pts+3.3 pts+18.0 pts
    2024WivenhoeLiberal Democrats-21.5 pts-7.2 pts-14.4 pts
    2024Mile EndLiberal Democrats+7.0 pts-7.2 pts+14.2 pts
    2024StanwayLiberal Democrats-20.7 pts-7.2 pts-13.5 pts
    2024TiptreeConservative-12.5 pts+0.4 pts-13.0 pts
    2024New Town and Christ ChurchLiberal Democrats-19.7 pts-7.2 pts-12.5 pts
    2024New Town and Christ ChurchLabour+15.4 pts+3.3 pts+12.2 pts
    2024HighwoodsConservative+11.2 pts+0.4 pts+10.8 pts
    2024BerechurchLabour+13.4 pts+3.3 pts+10.1 pts
    2024StanwayConservative+10.2 pts+0.4 pts+9.7 pts
    2024Marks Tey & LayerGreen-10.0 pts-0.9 pts-9.1 pts
    2024TiptreeReform UK+9.1 pts+0.4 pts+8.7 pts
    2024PrettygateConservative+8.7 pts+0.4 pts+8.3 pts
    2024CastleLabour+11.4 pts+3.3 pts+8.1 pts
    2024CastleLiberal Democrats-0.1 pts-7.2 pts+7.0 pts
    2024Old Heath & The HytheGreen+5.9 pts-0.9 pts+6.8 pts
    2024HighwoodsLabour-3.4 pts+3.3 pts-6.6 pts
    2024Marks Tey & LayerLiberal Democrats-0.9 pts-7.2 pts+6.2 pts
    2024GreensteadGreen+5.1 pts-0.9 pts+6.0 pts
    2024Mersea and PyefleetReform UK+6.4 pts+0.4 pts+6.0 pts
    2024CastleConservative-5.4 pts+0.4 pts-5.8 pts
    2024Mile EndConservative-5.3 pts+0.4 pts-5.8 pts
    2024Mersea and PyefleetLiberal Democrats-1.7 pts-7.2 pts+5.5 pts
    2024BerechurchConservative-4.9 pts+0.4 pts-5.4 pts
    2024Shrub EndConservative+5.6 pts+0.4 pts+5.2 pts
    2024CastleGreen-5.9 pts-0.9 pts-5.0 pts
    2024StanwayGreen+4.0 pts-0.9 pts+4.9 pts
    2024Lexden & BraiswickLabour+7.7 pts+3.3 pts+4.4 pts
    2024New Town and Christ ChurchGreen+2.9 pts-0.9 pts+3.8 pts
    2024Marks Tey & LayerConservative+4.2 pts+0.4 pts+3.8 pts
    2024Mersea and PyefleetGreen-4.6 pts-0.9 pts-3.7 pts
    2024Old Heath & The HytheLabour-0.4 pts+3.3 pts-3.7 pts
    2024Mile EndGreen-4.5 pts-0.9 pts-3.6 pts
    2024TiptreeGreen+2.6 pts-0.9 pts+3.5 pts
    2024Marks Tey & LayerLabour+6.7 pts+3.3 pts+3.4 pts
    2024Old Heath & The HytheLiberal Democrats-3.8 pts-7.2 pts+3.3 pts
    2024Shrub EndGreen-4.2 pts-0.9 pts-3.3 pts
    2024StanwayLabour+6.5 pts+3.3 pts+3.2 pts
    2024New Town and Christ ChurchConservative+3.5 pts+0.4 pts+3.1 pts
    2024St Anne's & St John'sLabour+6.3 pts+3.3 pts+3.0 pts
    2024Rural NorthLiberal Democrats-4.1 pts-7.2 pts+3.0 pts
    2024Lexden & BraiswickConservative-2.5 pts+0.4 pts-3.0 pts
    2024BerechurchLiberal Democrats-4.2 pts-7.2 pts+3.0 pts
    2024Mersea and PyefleetIndependent+2.4 pts-0.5 pts+2.9 pts
    2024WivenhoeConservative+3.3 pts+0.4 pts+2.9 pts
    2024GreensteadLiberal Democrats-4.3 pts-7.2 pts+2.8 pts
    2024Shrub EndLabour+5.8 pts+3.3 pts+2.6 pts
    2024TiptreeLiberal Democrats-4.7 pts-7.2 pts+2.5 pts
    2024PrettygateLiberal Democrats-9.3 pts-7.2 pts-2.1 pts
    2024WivenhoeGreen-3.0 pts-0.9 pts-2.1 pts
    2024PrettygateLabour+1.1 pts+3.3 pts-2.1 pts
    2024St Anne's & St John'sGreen+1.2 pts-0.9 pts+2.1 pts
    2024Lexden & BraiswickLiberal Democrats-5.3 pts-7.2 pts+1.9 pts
    2024Old Heath & The HytheIndependent-2.3 pts-0.5 pts-1.8 pts
    2024St Anne's & St John'sLiberal Democrats-8.9 pts-7.2 pts-1.8 pts
    2024New Town and Christ ChurchIndependent-2.2 pts-0.5 pts-1.7 pts
    2024Rural NorthConservative+1.7 pts+0.4 pts+1.2 pts
    2024Rural NorthLabour+4.3 pts+3.3 pts+1.1 pts
    2024Lexden & BraiswickGreen+0.1 pts-0.9 pts+1.0 pts
    2024St Anne's & St John'sConservative+1.4 pts+0.4 pts+1.0 pts
    2024HighwoodsGreen+0.1 pts-0.9 pts+1.0 pts
    2024Rural NorthGreen-1.8 pts-0.9 pts-0.9 pts
    2024Mersea and PyefleetLabour+2.5 pts+3.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2024HighwoodsLiberal Democrats-7.9 pts-7.2 pts-0.7 pts
    2024BerechurchGreen-0.4 pts-0.9 pts+0.5 pts
    2024PrettygateGreen-0.6 pts-0.9 pts+0.3 pts
    2024Old Heath & The HytheConservative+0.7 pts+0.4 pts+0.2 pts
    2024GreensteadConservative+0.2 pts+0.4 pts-0.2 pts
    2024Shrub EndLiberal Democrats-7.3 pts-7.2 pts-0.1 pts
    2024Mersea and PyefleetConservative+0.5 pts+0.4 pts+0.1 pts
    2023Mile EndLiberal Democrats+46.1 pts+7.4 pts+38.7 pts
    2023Mersea and PyefleetConservative-29.1 pts+1.3 pts-30.4 pts
    2023HighwoodsConservative-20.9 pts+1.3 pts-22.2 pts
    2023Rural NorthConservative-17.1 pts+1.3 pts-18.5 pts
    2023HighwoodsLiberal Democrats+25.2 pts+7.4 pts+17.8 pts
    2023Mile EndLabour-24.9 pts-7.3 pts-17.6 pts
    2023Mersea and PyefleetLiberal Democrats-9.7 pts+7.4 pts-17.0 pts
    2023Rural NorthLabour+5.8 pts-7.3 pts+13.1 pts
    2023CastleLabour+5.3 pts-7.3 pts+12.6 pts
    2023WivenhoeLabour-19.7 pts-7.3 pts-12.4 pts
    2023Shrub EndConservative-11.0 pts+1.3 pts-12.4 pts
    2023Lexden & BraiswickLiberal Democrats-4.0 pts+7.4 pts-11.4 pts
    2023Shrub EndLabour+2.5 pts-7.3 pts+9.8 pts
    2023TiptreeLiberal Democrats-2.3 pts+7.4 pts-9.7 pts
    2023WivenhoeLiberal Democrats+16.8 pts+7.4 pts+9.4 pts
    2023Shrub EndLiberal Democrats-2.0 pts+7.4 pts-9.3 pts
    2023St Anne's & St John'sConservative-7.9 pts+1.3 pts-9.3 pts
    2023Marks Tey & LayerLiberal Democrats-1.5 pts+7.4 pts-8.9 pts
    2023StanwayConservative-7.5 pts+1.3 pts-8.9 pts
    2023CastleLiberal Democrats-1.4 pts+7.4 pts-8.8 pts
    2023Mile EndConservative+10.0 pts+1.3 pts+8.7 pts
    2023TiptreeConservative-7.1 pts+1.3 pts-8.5 pts
    2023GreensteadConservative-6.6 pts+1.3 pts-7.9 pts
    2023GreensteadLabour+0.3 pts-7.3 pts+7.6 pts
    2023New Town and Christ ChurchLiberal Democrats+0.1 pts+7.4 pts-7.3 pts
    2023St Anne's & St John'sLabour-0.1 pts-7.3 pts+7.1 pts
    2023Lexden & BraiswickLabour-0.8 pts-7.3 pts+6.5 pts
    2023TiptreeLabour-0.8 pts-7.3 pts+6.4 pts
    2023StanwayLabour-1.0 pts-7.3 pts+6.3 pts
    2023GreensteadLiberal Democrats+1.4 pts+7.4 pts-6.0 pts
    2023Old Heath & The HytheConservative-4.6 pts+1.3 pts-6.0 pts
    2023New Town and Christ ChurchConservative-4.6 pts+1.3 pts-5.9 pts
    2023New Town and Christ ChurchLabour-1.4 pts-7.3 pts+5.8 pts
    2023PrettygateLabour-1.6 pts-7.3 pts+5.7 pts
    2023PrettygateConservative-4.4 pts+1.3 pts-5.7 pts
    2023St Anne's & St John'sLiberal Democrats+1.8 pts+7.4 pts-5.6 pts
    2023CastleConservative-4.1 pts+1.3 pts-5.4 pts
    2023BerechurchConservative-4.0 pts+1.3 pts-5.4 pts
    2023Lexden & BraiswickConservative+6.3 pts+1.3 pts+4.9 pts
    2023Old Heath & The HytheLiberal Democrats+2.9 pts+7.4 pts-4.4 pts
    2023BerechurchLiberal Democrats+2.9 pts+7.4 pts-4.4 pts
    2023Lexden & BraiswickGreen-1.5 pts+2.7 pts-4.2 pts
    2023BerechurchLabour-3.2 pts-7.3 pts+4.0 pts
    2023Marks Tey & LayerGreen+6.5 pts+2.7 pts+3.8 pts
    2023New Town and Christ ChurchGreen-0.8 pts+2.7 pts-3.5 pts
    2023PrettygateGreen-0.7 pts+2.7 pts-3.5 pts
    2023Marks Tey & LayerConservative+4.7 pts+1.3 pts+3.4 pts
    2023Mersea and PyefleetLabour-10.6 pts-7.3 pts-3.3 pts
    2023Old Heath & The HytheGreen-0.5 pts+2.7 pts-3.2 pts
    2023WivenhoeConservative-1.4 pts+1.3 pts-2.7 pts
    2023GreensteadGreen-0.0 pts+2.7 pts-2.7 pts
    2023Rural NorthGreen+5.4 pts+2.7 pts+2.7 pts
    2023CastleGreen+0.2 pts+2.7 pts-2.5 pts
    2023Marks Tey & LayerLabour-9.7 pts-7.3 pts-2.5 pts
    2023Old Heath & The HytheLabour-4.9 pts-7.3 pts+2.4 pts
    2023Mile EndGreen+0.4 pts+2.7 pts-2.3 pts
    2023BerechurchGreen+0.5 pts+2.7 pts-2.2 pts
    2023StanwayLiberal Democrats+5.2 pts+7.4 pts-2.2 pts
    2023WivenhoeGreen+4.3 pts+2.7 pts+1.6 pts
    2023Rural NorthLiberal Democrats+5.9 pts+7.4 pts-1.5 pts
    2023TiptreeGreen+1.7 pts+2.7 pts-1.1 pts
    2023HighwoodsLabour-8.2 pts-7.3 pts-0.9 pts
    2023PrettygateLiberal Democrats+6.7 pts+7.4 pts-0.7 pts
    2019WivenhoeLiberal Democrats+31.1 pts+9.2 pts+21.9 pts
    2019CastleGreen+25.6 pts+6.4 pts+19.2 pts
    2019CastleLiberal Democrats-8.0 pts+9.2 pts-17.3 pts
    2019St Anne's & St John'sLiberal Democrats+24.6 pts+9.2 pts+15.4 pts
    2019St Anne's & St John'sConservative-15.6 pts-5.1 pts-10.5 pts
    2019Marks Tey & LayerConservative+5.2 pts-5.1 pts+10.3 pts
    2019TiptreeLiberal Democrats+0.5 pts+9.2 pts-8.8 pts
    2019Mersea and PyefleetLiberal Democrats+0.5 pts+9.2 pts-8.7 pts
    2019Mersea and PyefleetIndependent+7.7 pts-0.7 pts+8.4 pts
    2019Lexden & BraiswickLiberal Democrats+0.9 pts+9.2 pts-8.3 pts
    2019CastleLabour-16.0 pts-7.8 pts-8.2 pts
    2019Mersea and PyefleetGreen-1.6 pts+6.4 pts-8.0 pts
    2019HighwoodsIndependent+7.2 pts-0.7 pts+8.0 pts
    2019HighwoodsLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts+9.2 pts-7.9 pts
    2019StanwayConservative-12.7 pts-5.1 pts-7.6 pts
    2019Shrub EndLiberal Democrats+16.7 pts+9.2 pts+7.5 pts
    2019GreensteadLiberal Democrats+2.1 pts+9.2 pts-7.1 pts
    2019BerechurchLiberal Democrats+15.9 pts+9.2 pts+6.7 pts
    2019WivenhoeConservative+0.7 pts-5.1 pts+5.8 pts
    2019Old Heath & The HytheConservative+0.6 pts-5.1 pts+5.6 pts
    2019Old Heath & The HytheLiberal Democrats+3.7 pts+9.2 pts-5.6 pts
    2019Shrub EndLabour-13.3 pts-7.8 pts-5.5 pts
    2019Mile EndConservative-10.4 pts-5.1 pts-5.4 pts
    2019BerechurchConservative-9.9 pts-5.1 pts-4.9 pts
    2019St Anne's & St John'sGreen+1.6 pts+6.4 pts-4.8 pts
    2019Marks Tey & LayerLiberal Democrats+4.7 pts+9.2 pts-4.5 pts
    2019Marks Tey & LayerLabour-3.5 pts-7.8 pts+4.4 pts
    2019HighwoodsLabour-3.8 pts-7.8 pts+4.1 pts
    2019Mersea and PyefleetConservative-9.1 pts-5.1 pts-4.1 pts
    2019Rural NorthLiberal Democrats+5.2 pts+9.2 pts-4.1 pts
    2019GreensteadLabour-3.8 pts-7.8 pts+4.1 pts
    2019Mile EndLiberal Democrats+13.1 pts+9.2 pts+3.9 pts
    2019Rural NorthLabour-4.1 pts-7.8 pts+3.7 pts
    2019TiptreeLabour-4.1 pts-7.8 pts+3.7 pts
    2019Marks Tey & LayerGreen+10.1 pts+6.4 pts+3.7 pts
    2019CastleConservative-1.5 pts-5.1 pts+3.6 pts
    2019StanwayLabour-4.4 pts-7.8 pts+3.5 pts
    2019HighwoodsConservative-8.4 pts-5.1 pts-3.3 pts
    2019Mersea and PyefleetLabour-4.8 pts-7.8 pts+3.0 pts
    2019Lexden & BraiswickLabour-4.9 pts-7.8 pts+3.0 pts
    2019BerechurchGreen+3.5 pts+6.4 pts-2.9 pts
    2019HighwoodsGreen+3.6 pts+6.4 pts-2.8 pts
    2019TiptreeConservative-2.3 pts-5.1 pts+2.7 pts
    2019Old Heath & The HytheGreen+9.0 pts+6.4 pts+2.6 pts
    2019WivenhoeGreen+3.8 pts+6.4 pts-2.6 pts
    2019GreensteadIndependent+1.5 pts-0.7 pts+2.2 pts
    2019Rural NorthConservative-7.1 pts-5.1 pts-2.1 pts
    2019New Town and Christ ChurchLabour-9.8 pts-7.8 pts-2.0 pts
    2019PrettygateConservative-6.9 pts-5.1 pts-1.8 pts
    2019StanwayLiberal Democrats+11.0 pts+9.2 pts+1.8 pts
    2019Mile EndLabour-6.1 pts-7.8 pts+1.8 pts
    2019PrettygateGreen+4.7 pts+6.4 pts-1.7 pts
    2019Old Heath & The HytheLabour-9.5 pts-7.8 pts-1.6 pts
    2019BerechurchLabour-9.4 pts-7.8 pts-1.6 pts
    2019Shrub EndGreen+4.8 pts+6.4 pts-1.5 pts
    2019Lexden & BraiswickGreen+7.8 pts+6.4 pts+1.4 pts
    2019GreensteadGreen+5.1 pts+6.4 pts-1.3 pts
    2019New Town and Christ ChurchLiberal Democrats+10.4 pts+9.2 pts+1.2 pts
    2019Lexden & BraiswickConservative-3.8 pts-5.1 pts+1.2 pts
    2019Mile EndGreen+5.2 pts+6.4 pts-1.2 pts
    2019WivenhoeLabour-8.8 pts-7.8 pts-1.0 pts
    2019St Anne's & St John'sLabour-7.1 pts-7.8 pts+0.7 pts
    2019Shrub EndConservative-4.4 pts-5.1 pts+0.7 pts
    2019New Town and Christ ChurchGreen+6.9 pts+6.4 pts+0.5 pts
    2019PrettygateLabour-7.3 pts-7.8 pts+0.5 pts
    2019StanwayGreen+6.0 pts+6.4 pts-0.4 pts
    2019TiptreeGreen+6.0 pts+6.4 pts-0.4 pts
    2019Rural NorthGreen+6.0 pts+6.4 pts-0.3 pts
    2019PrettygateLiberal Democrats+9.5 pts+9.2 pts+0.3 pts
    2019New Town and Christ ChurchConservative-5.2 pts-5.1 pts-0.2 pts
    2019GreensteadConservative-4.9 pts-5.1 pts+0.1 pts
    2018St Anne's & St John'sConservative+24.0 pts+2.0 pts+22.0 pts
    2018Old Heath & The HytheLabour+20.0 pts+2.2 pts+17.8 pts
    2018New Town and Christ ChurchLabour+19.6 pts+2.2 pts+17.4 pts
    2018Old Heath & The HytheLiberal Democrats-19.8 pts-3.1 pts-16.7 pts
    2018CastleLiberal Democrats-16.4 pts-3.1 pts-13.3 pts
    2018Mersea and PyefleetConservative-11.3 pts+2.0 pts-13.2 pts
    2018WivenhoeLiberal Democrats+9.5 pts-3.1 pts+12.6 pts
    2018WivenhoeConservative-10.5 pts+2.0 pts-12.5 pts
    2018Shrub EndLabour+13.9 pts+2.2 pts+11.7 pts
    2018CastleGreen+8.4 pts-2.5 pts+10.9 pts
    2018New Town and Christ ChurchLiberal Democrats-13.8 pts-3.1 pts-10.7 pts
    2018St Anne's & St John'sLiberal Democrats-13.2 pts-3.1 pts-10.2 pts
    2018WivenhoeLabour-7.8 pts+2.2 pts-10.0 pts
    2018GreensteadLabour-7.5 pts+2.2 pts-9.7 pts
    2018Shrub EndConservative+11.3 pts+2.0 pts+9.3 pts
    2018Shrub EndLiberal Democrats-10.9 pts-3.1 pts-7.8 pts
    2018Mile EndLiberal Democrats-10.3 pts-3.1 pts-7.2 pts
    2018Rural NorthLiberal Democrats+4.1 pts-3.1 pts+7.2 pts
    2018HighwoodsLiberal Democrats+3.8 pts-3.1 pts+6.8 pts
    2018BerechurchLabour-4.6 pts+2.2 pts-6.8 pts
    2018New Town and Christ ChurchGreen-9.1 pts-2.5 pts-6.6 pts
    2018Marks Tey & LayerLiberal Democrats+3.3 pts-3.1 pts+6.4 pts
    2018Marks Tey & LayerLabour-3.9 pts+2.2 pts-6.2 pts
    2018Old Heath & The HytheGreen-8.4 pts-2.5 pts-6.0 pts
    2018GreensteadConservative+7.9 pts+2.0 pts+5.9 pts
    2018BerechurchConservative+7.7 pts+2.0 pts+5.8 pts
    2018StanwayLabour-3.4 pts+2.2 pts-5.6 pts
    2018GreensteadLiberal Democrats+2.4 pts-3.1 pts+5.4 pts
    2018CastleLabour+7.6 pts+2.2 pts+5.4 pts
    2018TiptreeConservative-3.3 pts+2.0 pts-5.3 pts
    2018Shrub EndIndependent-2.3 pts+2.9 pts-5.2 pts
    2018Marks Tey & LayerConservative-3.1 pts+2.0 pts-5.1 pts
    2018HighwoodsIndependent-1.7 pts+2.9 pts-4.6 pts
    2018GreensteadIndependent+7.2 pts+2.9 pts+4.3 pts
    2018BerechurchLiberal Democrats+1.1 pts-3.1 pts+4.1 pts
    2018Mile EndConservative+6.0 pts+2.0 pts+4.0 pts
    2018BerechurchGreen+1.4 pts-2.5 pts+3.9 pts
    2018StanwayGreen+1.2 pts-2.5 pts+3.6 pts
    2018Mersea and PyefleetLiberal Democrats+0.5 pts-3.1 pts+3.6 pts
    2018TiptreeGreen-5.4 pts-2.5 pts-3.0 pts
    2018Shrub EndGreen-5.3 pts-2.5 pts-2.8 pts
    2018TiptreeLabour-0.4 pts+2.2 pts-2.7 pts
    2018Old Heath & The HytheConservative+4.4 pts+2.0 pts+2.5 pts
    2018Rural NorthGreen-4.8 pts-2.5 pts-2.3 pts
    2018Lexden & BraiswickConservative+4.2 pts+2.0 pts+2.3 pts
    2018Lexden & BraiswickLiberal Democrats-1.1 pts-3.1 pts+2.0 pts
    2018Rural NorthLabour+0.2 pts+2.2 pts-2.0 pts
    2018Mersea and PyefleetLabour+0.3 pts+2.2 pts-1.9 pts
    2018Mile EndLabour+4.1 pts+2.2 pts+1.9 pts
    2018StanwayConservative+3.7 pts+2.0 pts+1.7 pts
    2018Marks Tey & LayerGreen-4.1 pts-2.5 pts-1.7 pts
    2018GreensteadGreen-4.1 pts-2.5 pts-1.6 pts
    2018CastleConservative+0.4 pts+2.0 pts-1.6 pts
    2018StanwayLiberal Democrats-1.5 pts-3.1 pts+1.6 pts
    2018HighwoodsConservative+0.4 pts+2.0 pts-1.5 pts
    2018Rural NorthConservative+0.4 pts+2.0 pts-1.5 pts
    2018Mersea and PyefleetGreen-0.9 pts-2.5 pts+1.5 pts
    2018Lexden & BraiswickLabour+0.8 pts+2.2 pts-1.5 pts
    2018Lexden & BraiswickGreen-3.9 pts-2.5 pts-1.4 pts
    2018HighwoodsGreen-1.2 pts-2.5 pts+1.3 pts
    2018PrettygateLiberal Democrats-2.0 pts-3.1 pts+1.1 pts
    2018New Town and Christ ChurchConservative+0.9 pts+2.0 pts-1.1 pts
    2018PrettygateConservative+0.9 pts+2.0 pts-1.0 pts
    2018PrettygateGreen-1.4 pts-2.5 pts+1.0 pts
    2018Mile EndGreen-1.6 pts-2.5 pts+0.8 pts
    2018WivenhoeGreen-2.9 pts-2.5 pts-0.5 pts
    2018St Anne's & St John'sGreen-2.0 pts-2.5 pts+0.5 pts
    2018PrettygateLabour+2.5 pts+2.2 pts+0.3 pts
    2018HighwoodsLabour+2.5 pts+2.2 pts+0.3 pts
    2018St Anne's & St John'sLabour+2.4 pts+2.2 pts+0.2 pts