Psephology.AI

    Cornwall: wards that bucked the trend

    Cornwall: in 2025, 138 ward results beat the expected swing and 110 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Padstow (+47.0 pts actual vs +5.9 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Cornwall: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2025PadstowLiberal Democrats+47.0 pts+5.9 pts+41.1 pts
    2025Gloweth, Malabar And ShortlanesendGreen+26.3 pts-6.0 pts+32.4 pts
    2025Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos And LanteglosLiberal Democrats-24.4 pts+5.9 pts-30.3 pts
    2025St Stephen-In-BrannelConservative-50.1 pts-21.4 pts-28.6 pts
    2025Saltash TamarIndependent-31.8 pts-3.3 pts-28.5 pts
    2025St Austell Central And GoverIndependent-29.6 pts-3.3 pts-26.4 pts
    2025Newquay TrenanceConservative-46.9 pts-21.4 pts-25.5 pts
    2025Ludgvan, Madron, Gulval And HeamoorLiberal Democrats-19.6 pts+5.9 pts-25.5 pts
    2025Helston South And MeneageLiberal Democrats+30.4 pts+5.9 pts+24.5 pts
    2025Camelford And BoscastleConservative-45.1 pts-21.4 pts-23.7 pts
    2025St Stephen-In-BrannelLiberal Democrats-17.8 pts+5.9 pts-23.7 pts
    2025TorpointLiberal Democrats-17.5 pts+5.9 pts-23.4 pts
    2025Helston NorthIndependent+19.5 pts-3.3 pts+22.8 pts
    2025Falmouth PenwerrisGreen+16.0 pts-6.0 pts+22.1 pts
    2025Mullion And St KeverneLiberal Democrats+27.5 pts+5.9 pts+21.6 pts
    2025St Columb Minor And ColanConservative-42.1 pts-21.4 pts-20.6 pts
    2025Fowey, Tywardreath And ParLabour+14.6 pts-5.6 pts+20.1 pts
    2025Liskeard South And DobwallsLiberal Democrats-13.9 pts+5.9 pts-19.8 pts
    2025St Columb Minor And ColanIndependent-22.9 pts-3.3 pts-19.7 pts
    2025Landæs EndLiberal Democrats-13.3 pts+5.9 pts-19.2 pts
    2025Falmouth ArwenackGreen+13.1 pts-6.0 pts+19.2 pts
    2025Wadebridge East And St MinverIndependent-22.2 pts-3.3 pts-19.0 pts
    2025Gwinear-Gwithian And Hayle EastLiberal Democrats-11.8 pts+5.9 pts-17.7 pts
    2025Hayle WestIndependent-20.8 pts-3.3 pts-17.5 pts
    2025Redruth SouthLabour+11.8 pts-5.6 pts+17.3 pts
    2025St Columb Major, St Mawgan And St WennIndependent-19.6 pts-3.3 pts-16.4 pts
    2025Saltash Trematon And LandrakeIndependent+12.9 pts-3.3 pts+16.2 pts
    2025St AgnesConservative-5.5 pts-21.4 pts+15.9 pts
    2025Threemilestone And ChacewaterGreen-21.9 pts-6.0 pts-15.9 pts
    2025Newquay Porth And TretherrasConservative-36.9 pts-21.4 pts-15.5 pts
    2025Camborne Roskear and TuckingmillConservative-36.6 pts-21.4 pts-15.1 pts
    2025Redruth Central, Carharrack And St DayConservative-6.3 pts-21.4 pts+15.1 pts
    2025Looe East And DeviockLiberal Democrats-9.1 pts+5.9 pts-15.0 pts
    2025Newquay Central And PentireConservative-36.4 pts-21.4 pts-15.0 pts
    2025Wadebridge East And St MinverLiberal Democrats+20.5 pts+5.9 pts+14.6 pts
    2025Penzance EastLabour-20.2 pts-5.6 pts-14.6 pts
    2025St Ives East, Lelant And Carbis BayConservative-35.8 pts-21.4 pts-14.4 pts
    2025Camelford And BoscastleLiberal Democrats+20.2 pts+5.9 pts+14.3 pts
    2025St Newlyn East, Cubert And GoonhavernConservative-35.7 pts-21.4 pts-14.3 pts
    2025PenrynConservative-7.2 pts-21.4 pts+14.2 pts
    2025Wadebridge West and St MabynIndependent+10.9 pts-3.3 pts+14.2 pts
    2025Landæs EndIndependent+10.2 pts-3.3 pts+13.5 pts
    2025PerranporthLiberal Democrats-7.5 pts+5.9 pts-13.4 pts
    2025BudeLiberal Democrats-7.5 pts+5.9 pts-13.4 pts
    2025Illogan And PortreathLiberal Democrats-7.3 pts+5.9 pts-13.2 pts
    2025St Columb Major, St Mawgan And St WennLiberal Democrats+19.0 pts+5.9 pts+13.1 pts
    2025Rame Peninsula And St GermansLiberal Democrats-6.8 pts+5.9 pts-12.7 pts
    2025CalstockLiberal Democrats-6.2 pts+5.9 pts-12.1 pts
    2025Saltash Trematon And LandrakeLiberal Democrats-6.2 pts+5.9 pts-12.1 pts
    2025Penzance EastLiberal Democrats+17.9 pts+5.9 pts+12.0 pts
    2025St Austell Bethel And HolmbushLiberal Democrats-6.0 pts+5.9 pts-11.9 pts
    2025Liskeard CentralLiberal Democrats-5.8 pts+5.9 pts-11.7 pts
    2025Lanner, Stithians And GwennapConservative-9.8 pts-21.4 pts+11.7 pts
    2025Helston South And MeneageIndependent-14.8 pts-3.3 pts-11.5 pts
    2025Long Rock, Marazion And St ErthConservative-10.1 pts-21.4 pts+11.4 pts
    2025Helston NorthConservative-10.1 pts-21.4 pts+11.4 pts
    2025Callington And St DominicConservative-32.7 pts-21.4 pts-11.3 pts
    2025Four Lanes, Beacon And TroonConservative-32.6 pts-21.4 pts-11.2 pts
    2025BudeConservative-10.3 pts-21.4 pts+11.1 pts
    2025Looe East And DeviockIndependent-14.4 pts-3.3 pts-11.1 pts
    2025St Newlyn East, Cubert And GoonhavernIndependent-13.9 pts-3.3 pts-10.7 pts
    2025Newquay TrenanceLiberal Democrats-4.7 pts+5.9 pts-10.5 pts
    2025Penzance EastConservative-10.9 pts-21.4 pts+10.5 pts
    2025Pool And TehidyConservative-31.7 pts-21.4 pts-10.3 pts
    2025Landæs EndGreen+4.2 pts-6.0 pts+10.3 pts
    2025CalstockConservative-11.3 pts-21.4 pts+10.2 pts
    2025Launceston North And North PetherwinConservative-31.5 pts-21.4 pts-10.1 pts
    2025Landæs EndConservative-11.5 pts-21.4 pts+9.9 pts
    2025BudeIndependent+6.6 pts-3.3 pts+9.9 pts
    2025Fowey, Tywardreath And ParConservative-31.2 pts-21.4 pts-9.7 pts
    2025Redruth SouthConservative-11.7 pts-21.4 pts+9.7 pts
    2025Pool And TehidyLiberal Democrats-3.7 pts+5.9 pts-9.6 pts
    2025Redruth NorthGreen+3.5 pts-6.0 pts+9.6 pts
    2025PadstowConservative-30.9 pts-21.4 pts-9.5 pts
    2025Truro TregollsConservative-12.1 pts-21.4 pts+9.3 pts
    2025St Austell Poltair And Mount CharlesLiberal Democrats-3.3 pts+5.9 pts-9.2 pts
    2025Falmouth Trescobeas And BudockGreen+3.0 pts-6.0 pts+9.1 pts
    2025Bodmin St PetrocæsLiberal Democrats+14.9 pts+5.9 pts+9.0 pts
    2025Launceston SouthLiberal Democrats-3.1 pts+5.9 pts-9.0 pts
    2025Falmouth Trescobeas And BudockIndependent+5.6 pts-3.3 pts+8.9 pts
    2025Saltash TamarLiberal Democrats+14.7 pts+5.9 pts+8.8 pts
    2025Feock And KeaLabour+3.1 pts-5.6 pts+8.7 pts
    2025Falmouth PenwerrisConservative-12.7 pts-21.4 pts+8.7 pts
    2025St Austell Central And GoverConservative-30.1 pts-21.4 pts-8.6 pts
    2025Truro Moresk And TrehaverneConservative-12.8 pts-21.4 pts+8.6 pts
    2025PerranporthLabour+3.0 pts-5.6 pts+8.6 pts
    2025PoundstockLiberal Democrats-2.6 pts+5.9 pts-8.5 pts
    2025Newquay Central And PentireLiberal Democrats+14.3 pts+5.9 pts+8.4 pts
    2025Truro Moresk And TrehaverneGreen+2.4 pts-6.0 pts+8.4 pts
    2025PenrynGreen+2.3 pts-6.0 pts+8.3 pts
    2025Saltash Trematon And LandrakeConservative-29.6 pts-21.4 pts-8.2 pts
    2025Camborne TrelowarrenIndependent+4.9 pts-3.3 pts+8.2 pts
    2025Bodmin St PetrocæsConservative-29.5 pts-21.4 pts-8.1 pts
    2025Truro Boscawen And RedannickLabour-13.2 pts-5.6 pts-7.6 pts
    2025Crowan, Sithney And WendronConservative-28.7 pts-21.4 pts-7.3 pts
    2025Mousehole, Newlyn And St BuryanConservative-28.7 pts-21.4 pts-7.3 pts
    2025Liskeard South And DobwallsGreen+1.2 pts-6.0 pts+7.2 pts
    2025St Dennis And St EnoderConservative-14.2 pts-21.4 pts+7.2 pts
    2025Probus And St ErmeConservative-14.4 pts-21.4 pts+7.1 pts
    2025St Ives West And TowednackIndependent+3.7 pts-3.3 pts+6.9 pts
    2025Wadebridge East And St MinverGreen+0.9 pts-6.0 pts+6.9 pts
    2025Gloweth, Malabar And ShortlanesendLabour-12.4 pts-5.6 pts-6.8 pts
    2025Mylor, Perranarworthal And PonsanoothLiberal Democrats+12.7 pts+5.9 pts+6.8 pts
    2025Lanner, Stithians And GwennapGreen+0.7 pts-6.0 pts+6.7 pts
    2025Falmouth PenwerrisIndependent+3.4 pts-3.3 pts+6.7 pts
    2025Newquay Porth And TretherrasLabour+1.0 pts-5.6 pts+6.6 pts
    2025Falmouth ArwenackLiberal Democrats-0.6 pts+5.9 pts-6.5 pts
    2025St Dennis And St EnoderLiberal Democrats-0.6 pts+5.9 pts-6.5 pts
    2025Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos And LanteglosConservative-14.9 pts-21.4 pts+6.5 pts
    2025St Cleer And MenheniotLiberal Democrats+12.3 pts+5.9 pts+6.4 pts
    2025CalstockLabour-11.9 pts-5.6 pts-6.3 pts
    2025Camborne TrelowarrenGreen+0.1 pts-6.0 pts+6.2 pts
    2025St Mewan And GrampoundConservative-15.3 pts-21.4 pts+6.1 pts
    2025Saltash EssaLiberal Democrats+12.0 pts+5.9 pts+6.1 pts
    2025Newquay TrenanceLabour-11.6 pts-5.6 pts-6.0 pts
    2025LynherLiberal Democrats-0.1 pts+5.9 pts-6.0 pts
    2025Ludgvan, Madron, Gulval And HeamoorConservative-27.3 pts-21.4 pts-5.9 pts
    2025Camborne West And TreswithianLiberal Democrats+0.0 pts+5.9 pts-5.9 pts
    2025Saltash TamarLabour+0.2 pts-5.6 pts+5.8 pts
    2025CalstockGreen-0.3 pts-6.0 pts+5.8 pts
    2025Saltash TamarConservative-15.7 pts-21.4 pts+5.7 pts
    2025St Goran, Tregony And The RoselandIndependent+2.4 pts-3.3 pts+5.7 pts
    2025St Ives West And TowednackConservative-15.7 pts-21.4 pts+5.7 pts
    2025Mylor, Perranarworthal And PonsanoothLabour+0.0 pts-5.6 pts+5.6 pts
    2025St Teath And TintagelConservative-27.0 pts-21.4 pts-5.6 pts
    2025St BlazeyLabour-11.2 pts-5.6 pts-5.6 pts
    2025Saltash EssaLabour-0.0 pts-5.6 pts+5.5 pts
    2025St Newlyn East, Cubert And GoonhavernGreen-11.5 pts-6.0 pts-5.4 pts
    2025Fowey, Tywardreath And ParLiberal Democrats+11.3 pts+5.9 pts+5.4 pts
    2025Saltash Trematon And LandrakeGreen-0.7 pts-6.0 pts+5.4 pts
    2025St Cleer And MenheniotConservative-16.1 pts-21.4 pts+5.3 pts
    2025LynherConservative-26.6 pts-21.4 pts-5.2 pts
    2025Wadebridge East And St MinverConservative-16.3 pts-21.4 pts+5.1 pts
    2025Porthleven, Breage And GermoeLiberal Democrats+11.0 pts+5.9 pts+5.1 pts
    2025Liskeard South And DobwallsLabour-0.6 pts-5.6 pts+5.0 pts
    2025Mevagissey And St Austell BayLiberal Democrats+0.9 pts+5.9 pts-5.0 pts
    2025PerranporthGreen-1.1 pts-6.0 pts+5.0 pts
    2025Saltash EssaConservative-16.5 pts-21.4 pts+4.9 pts
    2025Liskeard CentralLabour-10.4 pts-5.6 pts-4.9 pts
    2025St Cleer And MenheniotLabour-10.3 pts-5.6 pts-4.7 pts
    2025Mevagissey And St Austell BayLabour-0.8 pts-5.6 pts+4.7 pts
    2025Helston NorthLiberal Democrats+10.6 pts+5.9 pts+4.7 pts
    2025Lostwithiel And LanreathConservative-26.0 pts-21.4 pts-4.6 pts
    2025Launceston North And North PetherwinIndependent-7.9 pts-3.3 pts-4.6 pts
    2025Penzance PromenadeConservative-16.8 pts-21.4 pts+4.6 pts
    2025Altarnun And Stoke ClimslandLiberal Democrats+10.4 pts+5.9 pts+4.5 pts
    2025Gloweth, Malabar And ShortlanesendConservative-25.9 pts-21.4 pts-4.4 pts
    2025Gwinear-Gwithian And Hayle EastConservative-25.9 pts-21.4 pts-4.4 pts
    2025Penzance PromenadeLabour-1.2 pts-5.6 pts+4.4 pts
    2025Camborne West And TreswithianConservative-25.8 pts-21.4 pts-4.4 pts
    2025Truro Moresk And TrehaverneLiberal Democrats+10.3 pts+5.9 pts+4.4 pts
    2025Camborne West And TreswithianLabour-9.9 pts-5.6 pts-4.3 pts
    2025Rame Peninsula And St GermansConservative-25.7 pts-21.4 pts-4.3 pts
    2025Newquay Porth And TretherrasLiberal Democrats+1.6 pts+5.9 pts-4.3 pts
    2025Falmouth Trescobeas And BudockLiberal Democrats+1.6 pts+5.9 pts-4.3 pts
    2025Rame Peninsula And St GermansGreen-1.8 pts-6.0 pts+4.3 pts
    2025Truro Moresk And TrehaverneIndependent-7.5 pts-3.3 pts-4.2 pts
    2025Long Rock, Marazion And St ErthGreen-1.9 pts-6.0 pts+4.2 pts
    2025Penwithick And BoscoppaConservative-25.6 pts-21.4 pts-4.2 pts
    2025Falmouth BoslowickConservative-17.3 pts-21.4 pts+4.1 pts
    2025St Goran, Tregony And The RoselandConservative-25.5 pts-21.4 pts-4.1 pts
    2025Liskeard CentralGreen-2.0 pts-6.0 pts+4.1 pts
    2025Pool And TehidyLabour-9.6 pts-5.6 pts-4.0 pts
    2025Feock And KeaLiberal Democrats+9.9 pts+5.9 pts+4.0 pts
    2025Camborne TrelowarrenLabour-9.6 pts-5.6 pts-4.0 pts
    2025Constantine, Mabe And MawnanLiberal Democrats+2.1 pts+5.9 pts-3.8 pts
    2025Threemilestone And ChacewaterLiberal Democrats+9.7 pts+5.9 pts+3.8 pts
    2025Saltash Trematon And LandrakeLabour-1.8 pts-5.6 pts+3.8 pts
    2025Mevagissey And St Austell BayConservative-17.7 pts-21.4 pts+3.8 pts
    2025Truro TregollsGreen-2.3 pts-6.0 pts+3.7 pts
    2025Saltash EssaIndependent-6.9 pts-3.3 pts-3.6 pts
    2025Falmouth BoslowickLiberal Democrats+2.3 pts+5.9 pts-3.6 pts
    2025St Austell Poltair And Mount CharlesIndependent+0.2 pts-3.3 pts+3.5 pts
    2025Redruth NorthLabour-2.1 pts-5.6 pts+3.5 pts
    2025St Austell Bethel And HolmbushConservative-18.0 pts-21.4 pts+3.4 pts
    2025Lanivet, Blisland And Bodmin St LawrenceLiberal Democrats+2.5 pts+5.9 pts-3.4 pts
    2025Truro Boscawen And RedannickConservative-18.0 pts-21.4 pts+3.4 pts
    2025Redruth NorthConservative-24.8 pts-21.4 pts-3.4 pts
    2025Camborne TrelowarrenLiberal Democrats+2.6 pts+5.9 pts-3.3 pts
    2025Stratton, Kilkhampton And MorwenstowConservative-24.7 pts-21.4 pts-3.3 pts
    2025Truro TregollsLabour-2.3 pts-5.6 pts+3.3 pts
    2025PoundstockIndependent-0.0 pts-3.3 pts+3.2 pts
    2025Redruth Central, Carharrack And St DayLabour-2.4 pts-5.6 pts+3.2 pts
    2025Truro Boscawen And RedannickLiberal Democrats+2.8 pts+5.9 pts-3.1 pts
    2025Falmouth ArwenackConservative-18.4 pts-21.4 pts+3.0 pts
    2025Constantine, Mabe And MawnanConservative-18.4 pts-21.4 pts+3.0 pts
    2025Falmouth Trescobeas And BudockConservative-18.4 pts-21.4 pts+3.0 pts
    2025Roche And BugleConservative-18.4 pts-21.4 pts+3.0 pts
    2025Bodmin St Maryæs And St LeonardConservative-24.4 pts-21.4 pts-3.0 pts
    2025Liskeard CentralConservative-18.5 pts-21.4 pts+3.0 pts
    2025Lanivet, Blisland And Bodmin St LawrenceConservative-18.5 pts-21.4 pts+2.9 pts
    2025Roche And BugleLabour-2.7 pts-5.6 pts+2.9 pts
    2025Feock And KeaConservative-24.3 pts-21.4 pts-2.9 pts
    2025St BlazeyConservative-18.6 pts-21.4 pts+2.8 pts
    2025Truro TregollsIndependent-0.5 pts-3.3 pts+2.8 pts
    2025Camborne TrelowarrenConservative-18.8 pts-21.4 pts+2.6 pts
    2025Lanner, Stithians And GwennapLiberal Democrats+3.3 pts+5.9 pts-2.6 pts
    2025PoundstockGreen-3.5 pts-6.0 pts+2.6 pts
    2025Lanivet, Blisland And Bodmin St LawrenceGreen-3.5 pts-6.0 pts+2.5 pts
    2025Lostwithiel And LanreathLabour-3.1 pts-5.6 pts+2.5 pts
    2025Stratton, Kilkhampton And MorwenstowLiberal Democrats+8.3 pts+5.9 pts+2.4 pts
    2025Illogan And PortreathConservative-23.8 pts-21.4 pts-2.4 pts
    2025Constantine, Mabe And MawnanLabour-3.2 pts-5.6 pts+2.4 pts
    2025Mylor, Perranarworthal And PonsanoothIndependent-5.6 pts-3.3 pts-2.4 pts
    2025St Austell Bethel And HolmbushLabour-8.0 pts-5.6 pts-2.4 pts
    2025Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos And LanteglosLabour-3.2 pts-5.6 pts+2.3 pts
    2025Looe East And DeviockLabour-3.2 pts-5.6 pts+2.3 pts
    2025Penzance EastIndependent-1.0 pts-3.3 pts+2.3 pts
    2025Liskeard South And DobwallsConservative-19.2 pts-21.4 pts+2.3 pts
    2025Lanner, Stithians And GwennapIndependent-1.0 pts-3.3 pts+2.3 pts
    2025Truro Boscawen And RedannickGreen-4.0 pts-6.0 pts+2.1 pts
    2025Bodmin St Maryæs And St LeonardLiberal Democrats+7.9 pts+5.9 pts+2.0 pts
    2025St Teath And TintagelLiberal Democrats+3.9 pts+5.9 pts-2.0 pts
    2025St Austell Poltair And Mount CharlesConservative-23.2 pts-21.4 pts-1.8 pts
    2025Threemilestone And ChacewaterIndependent-1.5 pts-3.3 pts+1.8 pts
    2025Lostwithiel And LanreathLiberal Democrats+7.7 pts+5.9 pts+1.8 pts
    2025LynherGreen-4.4 pts-6.0 pts+1.7 pts
    2025Roche And BugleLiberal Democrats+7.4 pts+5.9 pts+1.5 pts
    2025St Austell Central And GoverLabour-7.0 pts-5.6 pts-1.4 pts
    2025Mousehole, Newlyn And St BuryanLiberal Democrats+7.2 pts+5.9 pts+1.3 pts
    2025Gloweth, Malabar And ShortlanesendLiberal Democrats+7.2 pts+5.9 pts+1.3 pts
    2025Penzance PromenadeIndependent-2.1 pts-3.3 pts+1.2 pts
    2025PoundstockConservative-20.3 pts-21.4 pts+1.1 pts
    2025St AgnesLiberal Democrats+4.8 pts+5.9 pts-1.1 pts
    2025St Ives East, Lelant And Carbis BayLiberal Democrats+4.9 pts+5.9 pts-1.0 pts
    2025Altarnun And Stoke ClimslandGreen-5.1 pts-6.0 pts+1.0 pts
    2025Mullion And St KeverneConservative-20.5 pts-21.4 pts+0.9 pts
    2025TorpointConservative-22.3 pts-21.4 pts-0.9 pts
    2025PerranporthConservative-20.5 pts-21.4 pts+0.9 pts
    2025Hayle WestConservative-20.6 pts-21.4 pts+0.8 pts
    2025BudeGreen-6.8 pts-6.0 pts-0.8 pts
    2025St BlazeyLiberal Democrats+5.2 pts+5.9 pts-0.7 pts
    2025Falmouth PenwerrisLiberal Democrats+5.2 pts+5.9 pts-0.7 pts
    2025St Teath And TintagelGreen-5.4 pts-6.0 pts+0.7 pts
    2025Long Rock, Marazion And St ErthLiberal Democrats+6.5 pts+5.9 pts+0.6 pts
    2025Redruth NorthLiberal Democrats+5.4 pts+5.9 pts-0.5 pts
    2025PerranporthIndependent-2.8 pts-3.3 pts+0.5 pts
    2025Helston South And MeneageConservative-21.0 pts-21.4 pts+0.4 pts
    2025Penzance PromenadeLiberal Democrats+6.2 pts+5.9 pts+0.3 pts
    2025LynherLabour-5.3 pts-5.6 pts+0.3 pts
    2025Porthleven, Breage And GermoeConservative-21.2 pts-21.4 pts+0.3 pts
    2025Mylor, Perranarworthal And PonsanoothConservative-21.6 pts-21.4 pts-0.2 pts
    2025St Goran, Tregony And The RoselandGreen-5.9 pts-6.0 pts+0.2 pts
    2025Callington And St DominicLabour-5.7 pts-5.6 pts-0.2 pts
    2025Porthleven, Breage And GermoeIndependent-3.4 pts-3.3 pts-0.1 pts
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