Cotswold: wards that bucked the trend
Cotswold: in 2019, 37 ward results beat the expected swing and 33 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Fairford North (+41.4 pts actual vs +9.0 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Fairford North | Liberal Democrats | +41.4 pts | +9.0 pts | +32.4 pts |
| 2019 | The Beeches | Liberal Democrats | +40.1 pts | +9.0 pts | +31.0 pts |
| 2019 | The Rissingtons | Green | +31.9 pts | +2.2 pts | +29.7 pts |
| 2019 | South Cerney Village | Liberal Democrats | +35.1 pts | +9.0 pts | +26.0 pts |
| 2019 | Chesterton | Liberal Democrats | +33.8 pts | +9.0 pts | +24.8 pts |
| 2019 | Moreton West | Liberal Democrats | +32.1 pts | +9.0 pts | +23.1 pts |
| 2019 | Moreton East | Liberal Democrats | +31.5 pts | +9.0 pts | +22.4 pts |
| 2019 | Blockley | Liberal Democrats | -12.4 pts | +9.0 pts | -21.4 pts |
| 2019 | Tetbury East & Rural | Conservative | -34.6 pts | -13.2 pts | -21.4 pts |
| 2019 | Chedworth & Churn Valley | Conservative | -32.3 pts | -13.2 pts | -19.1 pts |
| 2019 | Moreton West | Conservative | -32.1 pts | -13.2 pts | -18.9 pts |
| 2019 | Tetbury with Upton | Liberal Democrats | -9.6 pts | +9.0 pts | -18.6 pts |
| 2019 | Northleach | Liberal Democrats | +27.1 pts | +9.0 pts | +18.1 pts |
| 2019 | Moreton East | Labour | -15.6 pts | -0.2 pts | -15.5 pts |
| 2019 | Campden & Vale | Liberal Democrats | -5.9 pts | +9.0 pts | -14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Grumbolds Ash with Avening | Liberal Democrats | -5.6 pts | +9.0 pts | -14.6 pts |
| 2019 | St Michael's | Liberal Democrats | +22.9 pts | +9.0 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2019 | Siddington & Cerney Rural | Liberal Democrats | +22.9 pts | +9.0 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2019 | Campden & Vale | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +11.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +13.7 pts |
| 2019 | Ermin | Conservative | -0.3 pts | -13.2 pts | +12.9 pts |
| 2019 | The Ampneys & Hampton | Liberal Democrats | +21.4 pts | +9.0 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stow | Liberal Democrats | +21.4 pts | +9.0 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey | Liberal Democrats | +20.9 pts | +9.0 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2019 | Stratton | Conservative | -24.9 pts | -13.2 pts | -11.7 pts |
| 2019 | Tetbury Town | Independent | +15.5 pts | +4.2 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2019 | New Mills | Liberal Democrats | +20.3 pts | +9.0 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Fosseridge | Conservative | -2.9 pts | -13.2 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2019 | Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | +9.0 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2019 | Siddington & Cerney Rural | Conservative | -22.9 pts | -13.2 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2019 | Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -13.2 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Kemble | Conservative | -4.3 pts | -13.2 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2019 | Tetbury with Upton | Labour | -8.9 pts | -0.2 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2019 | The Ampneys & Hampton | Conservative | -21.4 pts | -13.2 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Watermoor | Conservative | -21.4 pts | -13.2 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Stow | Conservative | -21.4 pts | -13.2 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Watermoor | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.1 pts | -2.0 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Four Acres | Liberal Democrats | +17.0 pts | +9.0 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Fosseridge | Liberal Democrats | +17.0 pts | +9.0 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Campden & Vale | Conservative | -5.8 pts | -13.2 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Bourton Village | Conservative | -5.8 pts | -13.2 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Blockley | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -13.2 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2019 | Fairford North | Conservative | -20.3 pts | -13.2 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2019 | New Mills | Conservative | -20.3 pts | -13.2 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2019 | Northleach | Conservative | -19.9 pts | -13.2 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2019 | Tetbury Town | Conservative | -6.7 pts | -13.2 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey | Conservative | -19.6 pts | -13.2 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2019 | The Rissingtons | Conservative | -19.0 pts | -13.2 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Bourton Vale | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -13.2 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Coln Valley | Liberal Democrats | +5.0 pts | +9.0 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Sandywell | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | +9.0 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Stratton | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | +9.0 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Bourton Village | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | +9.0 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Coln Valley | Conservative | -10.1 pts | -13.2 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Grumbolds Ash with Avening | Conservative | -10.2 pts | -13.2 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Coln Valley | Green | +5.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Four Acres | Conservative | -10.5 pts | -13.2 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Moreton East | Conservative | -15.9 pts | -13.2 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Tetbury Town | Liberal Democrats | +11.2 pts | +9.0 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Chesterton | Conservative | -11.3 pts | -13.2 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | The Beeches | Conservative | -15.1 pts | -13.2 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Chedworth & Churn Valley | Liberal Democrats | +7.4 pts | +9.0 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Kemble | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.6 pts | -2.0 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bourton Vale | Liberal Democrats | +8.1 pts | +9.0 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Sandywell | Conservative | -12.3 pts | -13.2 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | St Michael's | Conservative | -12.4 pts | -13.2 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South | Labour | +0.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Ermin | Liberal Democrats | +9.4 pts | +9.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Tetbury with Upton | Conservative | -13.5 pts | -13.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | South Cerney Village | Conservative | -13.5 pts | -13.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Watermoor | Liberal Democrats | +9.0 pts | +9.0 pts | -0.0 pts |