Crawley: wards that bucked the trend
Crawley: in 2024, 18 ward results beat the expected swing and 11 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Maidenbower (+48.5 pts actual vs -6.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Maidenbower | Conservative | +48.5 pts | -6.4 pts | +54.9 pts |
| 2024 | Langley Green & Tushmore | Labour | -31.0 pts | +15.2 pts | -46.3 pts |
| 2024 | Pound Hill North And Forge Wood | Labour | -53.5 pts | -12.2 pts | -41.3 pts |
| 2024 | Pound Hill North And Forge Wood | Conservative | -46.3 pts | -6.4 pts | -39.9 pts |
| 2024 | Three Bridges | Labour | -43.3 pts | -12.2 pts | -31.0 pts |
| 2024 | Southgate | Conservative | +18.3 pts | -6.4 pts | +24.7 pts |
| 2024 | Pound Hill South & Worth | Labour | +10.3 pts | -12.2 pts | +22.5 pts |
| 2024 | Northgate and West Green | Labour | -1.1 pts | +15.2 pts | -16.3 pts |
| 2024 | Langley Green & Tushmore | Conservative | -19.0 pts | -6.4 pts | -12.5 pts |
| 2024 | Ifield | Labour | +4.3 pts | +15.2 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2024 | Gossops Green and North East Broadfield | Labour | -1.4 pts | -12.2 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2024 | Bewbush and North Broadfield | Labour | -4.4 pts | -12.2 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2024 | Bewbush and North Broadfield | Conservative | +0.6 pts | -6.4 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2024 | Three Bridges | Conservative | -13.4 pts | -6.4 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2024 | Broadfield | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -6.4 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2024 | Bewbush and North Broadfield | Green | +3.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Gossops Green and North East Broadfield | Conservative | -3.4 pts | -6.4 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2024 | Broadfield | Heritage Party | +3.4 pts | +0.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2024 | Pound Hill South & Worth | Conservative | -9.2 pts | -6.4 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Pound Hill South & Worth | Green | -3.0 pts | -0.3 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2024 | Broadfield | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | +5.5 pts | +2.9 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2024 | Northgate and West Green | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -6.4 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2024 | Ifield | Green | +1.5 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2024 | Gossops Green and North East Broadfield | Green | -1.3 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2024 | Three Bridges | Green | +0.7 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2024 | Bewbush and North Broadfield | Heritage Party | +1.3 pts | +0.5 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Northgate and West Green | Green | +0.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Ifield | Conservative | -5.7 pts | -6.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Southgate | Green | -0.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Pound Hill North And Forge Wood | Labour | +7.3 pts | -15.6 pts | +22.9 pts |
| 2023 | Pound Hill South & Worth | Labour | +6.8 pts | -15.6 pts | +22.4 pts |
| 2023 | Bewbush and North Broadfield | Labour | +5.6 pts | -15.6 pts | +21.2 pts |
| 2023 | Broadfield | Labour | +2.8 pts | -15.6 pts | +18.4 pts |
| 2023 | Southgate | Labour | +2.5 pts | -15.6 pts | +18.1 pts |
| 2023 | Three Bridges | Labour | -4.7 pts | -15.6 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2023 | Three Bridges | Conservative | +6.8 pts | -1.9 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2023 | Langley Green & Tushmore | Conservative | +6.4 pts | -1.9 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2023 | Bewbush and North Broadfield | Conservative | -7.4 pts | -1.9 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2023 | Pound Hill North And Forge Wood | Conservative | -7.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Maidenbower | Conservative | +3.5 pts | -1.9 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Pound Hill South & Worth | Conservative | -6.7 pts | -1.9 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2023 | Ifield | Liberal Democrats | +1.5 pts | -2.7 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2023 | Southgate | Green | +3.2 pts | +0.7 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Ifield | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -1.9 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2023 | Bewbush and North Broadfield | Green | -1.5 pts | +0.7 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Ifield | Green | +2.8 pts | +0.7 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2023 | Southgate | Conservative | -3.7 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2023 | Bewbush and North Broadfield | Independent | +1.9 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2023 | Broadfield | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Maidenbower | Green | -0.3 pts | +0.7 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Northgate and West Green | Green | +1.6 pts | +0.7 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2023 | Pound Hill South & Worth | Green | -0.1 pts | +0.7 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2023 | Broadfield | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | -2.7 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2023 | Furnace Green | Conservative | -1.2 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Southgate | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -2.7 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Three Bridges | Green | +1.0 pts | +0.7 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Northgate and West Green | Conservative | -1.8 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.1 pts |