Daventry: wards that bucked the trend
Daventry: in 2015, 21 ward results beat the expected swing and 8 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Welford (-10.6 pts actual vs +7.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Welford | Conservative | -10.6 pts | +7.6 pts | -18.2 pts |
| 2015 | Moulton | Conservative | +16.0 pts | +7.6 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2015 | Brixworth | Conservative | +15.7 pts | +7.6 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2015 | Woodford | Conservative | +15.2 pts | +7.6 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2015 | Welford | Labour | -4.6 pts | +2.6 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2015 | Long Buckby | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.2 pts | -14.9 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2015 | Weedon | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.6 pts | -14.9 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2015 | Abbey South | Conservative | +13.5 pts | +7.6 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2015 | Abbey South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.7 pts | -14.9 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2015 | Drayton | Labour | -1.6 pts | +2.6 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2015 | Brixworth | Labour | +6.6 pts | +2.6 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2015 | Long Buckby | Conservative | +11.4 pts | +7.6 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2015 | Hill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.2 pts | -14.9 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2015 | Abbey South | Labour | +6.3 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2015 | Abbey North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.5 pts | -14.9 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2015 | Brixworth | Green | +6.1 pts | +3.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2015 | Weedon | Conservative | +5.4 pts | +7.6 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2015 | Moulton | Labour | +1.5 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2015 | Weedon | Labour | +3.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2015 | Drayton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.9 pts | -14.9 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2015 | Abbey North | Labour | +3.4 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2015 | Hill | Labour | +3.4 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2015 | Drayton | Conservative | +8.2 pts | +7.6 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2015 | Long Buckby | Labour | +3.2 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2015 | Abbey North | Conservative | +8.0 pts | +7.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2015 | Woodford | Labour | +2.3 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2015 | Hill | Conservative | +7.8 pts | +7.6 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2015 | Drayton | Liberal Democrats | +1.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2015 | Weedon | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.1 pts |