Derbyshire Dales: wards that bucked the trend
Derbyshire Dales: in 2019, 14 ward results beat the expected swing and 20 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Doveridge & Sudbury (-37.7 pts actual vs -5.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Doveridge & Sudbury | Conservative | -37.7 pts | -5.1 pts | -32.6 pts |
| 2019 | Bakewell | Conservative | +20.4 pts | -5.1 pts | +25.5 pts |
| 2019 | Tideswell | Conservative | -27.6 pts | -5.1 pts | -22.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ashbourne South | Conservative | -25.7 pts | -5.1 pts | -20.6 pts |
| 2019 | Ashbourne North | Conservative | -25.2 pts | -5.1 pts | -20.1 pts |
| 2019 | Matlock All Saints | Conservative | -22.6 pts | -5.1 pts | -17.5 pts |
| 2019 | Calver | Labour | -16.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -15.7 pts |
| 2019 | Matlock All Saints | Liberal Democrats | +28.9 pts | +14.0 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Masson | Conservative | -19.3 pts | -5.1 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2019 | Tideswell | Labour | -14.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -13.7 pts |
| 2019 | Lathkill and Bradford | Independent | -14.0 pts | -1.7 pts | -12.3 pts |
| 2019 | Norbury | Conservative | +6.0 pts | -5.1 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2019 | Wirksworth | Conservative | +5.8 pts | -5.1 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hathersage and Eyam | Conservative | -15.8 pts | -5.1 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2019 | Calver | Conservative | -15.7 pts | -5.1 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Bradwell | Labour | +9.5 pts | -0.9 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Wirksworth | Labour | +8.6 pts | -0.9 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Clifton and Bradley | Conservative | +4.3 pts | -5.1 pts | +9.4 pts |
| 2019 | Ashbourne South | Green | -8.5 pts | +0.7 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2019 | Darley Dale | Conservative | +3.7 pts | -5.1 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2019 | Clifton and Bradley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.8 pts | -6.9 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2019 | Bakewell | Labour | +7.4 pts | -0.9 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Wirksworth | Green | -6.6 pts | +0.7 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Matlock St Giles | Labour | -6.3 pts | -0.9 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Matlock St Giles | Conservative | +0.3 pts | -5.1 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Matlock All Saints | Labour | -6.3 pts | -0.9 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Matlock St Giles | Liberal Democrats | +19.3 pts | +14.0 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Bradwell | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -5.1 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Ashbourne North | Labour | -4.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Ashbourne South | Labour | -4.0 pts | -0.9 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Darley Dale | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.9 pts | -6.9 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Masson | Labour | -3.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Darley Dale | Labour | +0.8 pts | -0.9 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hathersage and Eyam | Labour | -0.4 pts | -0.9 pts | +0.5 pts |