Derbyshire: wards that bucked the trend
Derbyshire: in 2021, 95 ward results beat the expected swing and 103 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Duffield and Belper South (+38.8 pts actual vs +5.3 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Duffield and Belper South | Green | +38.8 pts | +5.3 pts | +33.5 pts |
| 2021 | Derwent Valley | Liberal Democrats | +30.2 pts | -2.1 pts | +32.2 pts |
| 2021 | Dovedale | Green | +36.6 pts | +5.3 pts | +31.3 pts |
| 2021 | Staveley | Independent | +29.3 pts | +0.6 pts | +28.7 pts |
| 2021 | Whaley Bridge | Labour | +24.3 pts | -4.1 pts | +28.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bakewell | Labour | +21.9 pts | -4.1 pts | +26.0 pts |
| 2021 | Whaley Bridge | Liberal Democrats | -26.7 pts | -2.1 pts | -24.6 pts |
| 2021 | Chapel and Hope Valley | Liberal Democrats | -24.4 pts | -2.1 pts | -22.3 pts |
| 2021 | Clay Cross North | Conservative | +25.7 pts | +3.3 pts | +22.3 pts |
| 2021 | Melbourne | Conservative | -15.9 pts | +3.3 pts | -19.2 pts |
| 2021 | Matlock | Liberal Democrats | +15.5 pts | -2.1 pts | +17.6 pts |
| 2021 | Staveley | Labour | -21.2 pts | -4.1 pts | -17.1 pts |
| 2021 | Linton | Conservative | -13.2 pts | +3.3 pts | -16.5 pts |
| 2021 | Duffield and Belper South | Conservative | -12.8 pts | +3.3 pts | -16.2 pts |
| 2021 | Barlborough and Clowne | Conservative | +18.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +15.3 pts |
| 2021 | Greater Heanor | Conservative | +18.4 pts | +3.3 pts | +15.1 pts |
| 2021 | Sawley | Labour | +9.7 pts | -4.1 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2021 | Ripley East and Codnor | Conservative | -10.3 pts | +3.3 pts | -13.7 pts |
| 2021 | Breadsall and West Hallam | Conservative | -10.3 pts | +3.3 pts | -13.7 pts |
| 2021 | Breadsall and West Hallam | Liberal Democrats | +11.4 pts | -2.1 pts | +13.4 pts |
| 2021 | Eckington and Killamarsh | Conservative | +16.7 pts | +3.3 pts | +13.4 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton | Conservative | +16.5 pts | +3.3 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2021 | Loundsley Green and Newbold | Liberal Democrats | +11.1 pts | -2.1 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2021 | Matlock | Conservative | -9.8 pts | +3.3 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2021 | Ripley East and Codnor | Labour | +8.7 pts | -4.1 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2021 | Shirebrook and Pleasley | Conservative | +16.1 pts | +3.3 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2021 | Breaston | Green | +17.8 pts | +5.3 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2021 | Staveley North and Whittington | Liberal Democrats | +10.3 pts | -2.1 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2021 | Heanor Central | Conservative | +15.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bolsover North | Labour | -16.3 pts | -4.1 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2021 | Shirebrook and Pleasley | Labour | +7.7 pts | -4.1 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2021 | Staveley North and Whittington | Labour | -15.6 pts | -4.1 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2021 | South Normanton and Pinxton | Conservative | +14.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bakewell | Conservative | -7.9 pts | +3.3 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2021 | Tibshelf | Labour | -15.0 pts | -4.1 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2021 | Greater Heanor | Labour | -15.0 pts | -4.1 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2021 | Buxton West | Labour | +6.5 pts | -4.1 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2021 | Swadlincote South | Conservative | +13.8 pts | +3.3 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2021 | Swadlincote North | Conservative | +13.7 pts | +3.3 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2021 | Glossop and Charlesworth | Labour | +6.3 pts | -4.1 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2021 | Ashbourne | Conservative | -6.4 pts | +3.3 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2021 | Dovedale | Conservative | +12.9 pts | +3.3 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2021 | Alport and Derwent | Conservative | -5.6 pts | +3.3 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2021 | Etwall and Repton | Conservative | -5.6 pts | +3.3 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2021 | Clay Cross North | Liberal Democrats | -10.7 pts | -2.1 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2021 | Dronfield West and Walton | Labour | +4.4 pts | -4.1 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2021 | Swadlincote Central | Conservative | +11.8 pts | +3.3 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2021 | Duffield and Belper South | Labour | -12.6 pts | -4.1 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2021 | Melbourne | Labour | +4.1 pts | -4.1 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2021 | Spire | Liberal Democrats | +6.0 pts | -2.1 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2021 | Alfreton and Somercotes | Conservative | +11.3 pts | +3.3 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2021 | Clay Cross South | Conservative | +11.2 pts | +3.3 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton | Labour | -11.8 pts | -4.1 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2021 | Wingerworth and Shirland | Labour | -11.5 pts | -4.1 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Birdholme | Liberal Democrats | -9.2 pts | -2.1 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston East | Conservative | +10.4 pts | +3.3 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2021 | Wingerworth and Shirland | Conservative | -3.3 pts | +3.3 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Whaley Bridge | Green | -1.3 pts | +5.3 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2021 | Etwall and Repton | Labour | +2.4 pts | -4.1 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2021 | Belper | Conservative | -3.1 pts | +3.3 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2021 | Sandiacre | Labour | +2.3 pts | -4.1 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2021 | New Mills | Conservative | +9.7 pts | +3.3 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Chapel and Hope Valley | Green | +11.6 pts | +5.3 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Walton and West | Conservative | -2.9 pts | +3.3 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Breadsall and West Hallam | Labour | +2.1 pts | -4.1 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Dronfield East | Liberal Democrats | +4.1 pts | -2.1 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bolsover South | Labour | -5.3 pts | +0.8 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Swadlincote South | Labour | -10.1 pts | -4.1 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Alport and Derwent | Labour | +1.9 pts | -4.1 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Loundsley Green and Newbold | Labour | -10.1 pts | -4.1 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Bolsover South | Conservative | +9.2 pts | +3.3 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Ashbourne | Liberal Democrats | -7.8 pts | -2.1 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Buxton North and East | Liberal Democrats | -7.7 pts | -2.1 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2021 | New Mills | Green | -0.3 pts | +5.3 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston West | Conservative | +8.9 pts | +3.3 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2021 | Eckington and Killamarsh | Labour | -9.7 pts | -4.1 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2021 | Glossop and Charlesworth | Green | -0.2 pts | +5.3 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Heanor Central | Labour | -9.5 pts | -4.1 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Wirksworth | Conservative | -2.0 pts | +3.3 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2021 | New Mills | Liberal Democrats | -7.3 pts | -2.1 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Derwent Valley | Conservative | -1.8 pts | +3.3 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Sandiacre | Liberal Democrats | -7.1 pts | -2.1 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston South | Conservative | +8.4 pts | +3.3 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2021 | Buxton West | Liberal Democrats | -6.7 pts | -2.1 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2021 | St Mary's | Conservative | +8.0 pts | +3.3 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2021 | Hilton | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | -2.1 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Buxton West | Conservative | -1.3 pts | +3.3 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Swadlincote Central | Labour | +0.4 pts | -4.1 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Horsley | Conservative | -1.2 pts | +3.3 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Belper | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | -2.1 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston East | Labour | +0.3 pts | -4.1 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Horsley | Labour | +0.2 pts | -4.1 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Walton and West | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | -2.1 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Clay Cross North | Labour | -8.3 pts | -4.1 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2021 | Tibshelf | Conservative | +7.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2021 | Staveley | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +3.3 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Loundsley Green and Newbold | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +3.3 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Birdholme | Labour | -8.1 pts | -4.1 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Long Eaton | Liberal Democrats | +2.0 pts | -2.1 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Linton | Labour | -0.2 pts | -4.1 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2021 | South Normanton and Pinxton | Liberal Democrats | -5.9 pts | -2.1 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2021 | St Mary's | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | -2.1 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Buxton West | Green | +1.5 pts | +5.3 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Breaston | Conservative | -0.5 pts | +3.3 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Ripley East and Codnor | Liberal Democrats | +1.7 pts | -2.1 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Buxton North and East | Green | +1.7 pts | +5.3 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Spire | Labour | -7.7 pts | -4.1 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Chapel and Hope Valley | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +3.3 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Bolsover South | TUSC | -3.6 pts | -0.0 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Boythorpe and Brampton South | Liberal Democrats | -5.6 pts | -2.1 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Glossop and Charlesworth | Conservative | +0.0 pts | +3.3 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Buxton North and East | Labour | -0.8 pts | -4.1 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston South | Green | +2.1 pts | +5.3 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Sawley | Green | +2.1 pts | +5.3 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Etwall and Repton | Liberal Democrats | -5.2 pts | -2.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2021 | Alfreton and Somercotes | Labour | -7.1 pts | -4.1 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Petersham | Labour | -1.2 pts | -4.1 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Shirebrook and Pleasley | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Bolsover North | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | -2.9 pts | +0.0 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Greater Heanor | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Etherow | Labour | -6.8 pts | -4.1 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Ripley West and Heage | Conservative | +5.9 pts | +3.3 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Melbourne | Liberal Democrats | -4.6 pts | -2.1 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Sawley | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +3.3 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Long Eaton | Conservative | +5.8 pts | +3.3 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Tibshelf | Liberal Democrats | -4.5 pts | -2.1 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Horsley | Green | +7.8 pts | +5.3 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Aston | Labour | -6.5 pts | -4.1 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Etherow | Conservative | +5.7 pts | +3.3 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Sawley | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Boythorpe and Brampton South | Conservative | +1.0 pts | +3.3 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Petersham | Conservative | +5.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Birdholme | Conservative | +5.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bolsover North | Conservative | +1.1 pts | +3.3 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston South | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bolsover North | Liberal Democrats | -4.2 pts | -2.1 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Etherow | Green | +3.2 pts | +5.3 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Wirksworth | Labour | -6.2 pts | -4.1 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | St Mary's | Labour | -6.2 pts | -4.1 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | New Mills | Labour | -2.1 pts | -4.1 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Ripley East and Codnor | Green | +3.3 pts | +5.3 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hilton | Labour | -6.1 pts | -4.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Sandiacre | Green | +3.3 pts | +5.3 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Eckington and Killamarsh | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Etherow | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Hilton | Conservative | +1.5 pts | +3.3 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Bolsover South | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Alport and Derwent | Green | +7.0 pts | +5.3 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Duffield and Belper South | Liberal Democrats | -3.8 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Barlborough and Clowne | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Long Eaton | Green | +3.7 pts | +5.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Brimington | Labour | -2.5 pts | -4.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Petersham | Liberal Democrats | -3.6 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston South | Labour | -2.5 pts | -4.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston West | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton | Liberal Democrats | -3.6 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Buxton North and East | Conservative | +4.8 pts | +3.3 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Clay Cross South | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston East | Green | +3.9 pts | +5.3 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Brimington | Conservative | +4.8 pts | +3.3 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Ripley West and Heage | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Clay Cross South | Labour | -5.5 pts | -4.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | South Normanton and Pinxton | Labour | -5.5 pts | -4.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Walton and West | Labour | -5.5 pts | -4.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Swadlincote North | Labour | -2.8 pts | -4.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Alport and Derwent | Liberal Democrats | -3.4 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Glossop and Charlesworth | Liberal Democrats | -3.4 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Wingerworth and Shirland | Liberal Democrats | -3.3 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Staveley North and Whittington | Conservative | +2.1 pts | +3.3 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Heanor Central | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Ripley West and Heage | Labour | -5.3 pts | -4.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Dronfield West and Walton | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston East | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Boythorpe and Brampton South | Labour | -3.0 pts | -4.1 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Aston | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Ilkeston West | Labour | -4.9 pts | -4.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Alfreton and Somercotes | Green | +4.5 pts | +5.3 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Aston | Conservative | +4.1 pts | +3.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Breaston | Labour | -4.8 pts | -4.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Greater Heanor | Green | +4.6 pts | +5.3 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Brimington | Liberal Democrats | -2.8 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Spire | Conservative | +4.0 pts | +3.3 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Heanor Central | Green | +4.7 pts | +5.3 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Alfreton and Somercotes | Liberal Democrats | -2.7 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Dronfield East | Conservative | +2.7 pts | +3.3 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Ripley West and Heage | Green | +4.8 pts | +5.3 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Aston | Green | +4.8 pts | +5.3 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Loundsley Green and Newbold | Chesterfield And North Derbyshire Independents (CANDI) | -0.3 pts | +0.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Belper | Green | +4.9 pts | +5.3 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Petersham | Green | +4.9 pts | +5.3 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Horsley | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -2.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Chapel and Hope Valley | Labour | -3.7 pts | -4.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Dronfield West and Walton | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +3.3 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Whaley Bridge | Conservative | +3.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Sandiacre | Conservative | +3.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Wirksworth | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | -2.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Wirksworth | Green | +5.4 pts | +5.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Long Eaton | Labour | -4.1 pts | -4.1 pts | +0.0 pts |