East Lindsey: wards that bucked the trend
East Lindsey: in 2019, 29 ward results beat the expected swing and 35 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Fulstow (-35.9 pts actual vs +8.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Fulstow | Conservative | -35.9 pts | +8.5 pts | -44.4 pts |
| 2019 | Sutton on Sea | Conservative | +50.4 pts | +8.5 pts | +41.9 pts |
| 2019 | St Mary's | Independent | +34.8 pts | +5.4 pts | +29.4 pts |
| 2019 | Alford | Conservative | +34.9 pts | +8.5 pts | +26.4 pts |
| 2019 | Wainfleet | Conservative | +34.8 pts | +8.5 pts | +26.3 pts |
| 2019 | TETNEY | Conservative | -17.7 pts | +8.5 pts | -26.2 pts |
| 2019 | Willoughby with Sloothby | Conservative | -15.9 pts | +8.5 pts | -24.3 pts |
| 2019 | NORTH HOLME | Conservative | -14.4 pts | +8.5 pts | -22.8 pts |
| 2019 | Friskney | Conservative | -14.1 pts | +8.5 pts | -22.6 pts |
| 2019 | Sibsey & Stickney | Conservative | +31.1 pts | +8.5 pts | +22.6 pts |
| 2019 | Halton Holegate | Independent | +26.0 pts | +5.4 pts | +20.5 pts |
| 2019 | Priory & St James | Labour | -12.9 pts | +6.0 pts | -18.9 pts |
| 2019 | SPILSBY | Conservative | -10.2 pts | +8.5 pts | -18.7 pts |
| 2019 | St Michael's | Independent | +23.5 pts | +5.4 pts | +18.1 pts |
| 2019 | GRIMOLDBY | Independent | +23.1 pts | +5.4 pts | +17.7 pts |
| 2019 | SPILSBY | Labour | -11.5 pts | +6.0 pts | -17.5 pts |
| 2019 | Mablethorpe | Labour | +23.2 pts | +6.0 pts | +17.2 pts |
| 2019 | TRINITY | Conservative | -8.5 pts | +8.5 pts | -16.9 pts |
| 2019 | INGOLDMELLS | Labour | -9.8 pts | +6.0 pts | -15.8 pts |
| 2019 | BURGH LE MARSH | Conservative | -6.9 pts | +8.5 pts | -15.4 pts |
| 2019 | Willoughby with Sloothby | Independent | +20.2 pts | +5.4 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2019 | Halton Holegate | Conservative | -6.0 pts | +8.5 pts | -14.5 pts |
| 2019 | Fulstow | Labour | -7.4 pts | +6.0 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2019 | Tetford & Donington | Conservative | +21.8 pts | +8.5 pts | +13.4 pts |
| 2019 | WRAGBY | Conservative | +21.8 pts | +8.5 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2019 | Priory & St James | Conservative | -4.5 pts | +8.5 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2019 | Marshchapel & Somercotes | Labour | -6.9 pts | +6.0 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2019 | St Mary's | Labour | -6.7 pts | +6.0 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Marshchapel & Somercotes | Conservative | +21.1 pts | +8.5 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2019 | Alford | Labour | -6.6 pts | +6.0 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2019 | St Margaret's | Labour | -6.3 pts | +6.0 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2019 | Priory & St James | Independent | +17.3 pts | +5.4 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2019 | CROFT | Conservative | -3.3 pts | +8.5 pts | -11.7 pts |
| 2019 | Binbrook | Labour | -5.5 pts | +6.0 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2019 | TRINITY | Labour | +16.4 pts | +6.0 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Willoughby with Sloothby | Labour | -4.4 pts | +6.0 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2019 | NORTH HOLME | Labour | -4.3 pts | +6.0 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2019 | GRIMOLDBY | Labour | +15.0 pts | +6.0 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2019 | St Clement's | Conservative | -0.1 pts | +8.5 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2019 | St Margaret's | Independent | -2.4 pts | +5.4 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2019 | TRINITY | Independent | +13.1 pts | +5.4 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2019 | WOODHALL SPA | Labour | -0.8 pts | +6.0 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Scarbrough and Seacroft | Conservative | +2.5 pts | +8.5 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2019 | St Michael's | Labour | +11.5 pts | +6.0 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2019 | WOODHALL SPA | Conservative | +13.5 pts | +8.5 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Winthorpe | Conservative | +3.7 pts | +8.5 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Horncastle | Labour | +1.6 pts | +6.0 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Horncastle | Conservative | +12.7 pts | +8.5 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | CHAPEL ST. LEONARDS | Conservative | +12.6 pts | +8.5 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Scarbrough and Seacroft | Labour | +1.9 pts | +6.0 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Sutton on Sea | Labour | +2.4 pts | +6.0 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | TETNEY | Independent | +8.8 pts | +5.4 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2019 | St Clement's | Labour | +9.3 pts | +6.0 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Binbrook | Conservative | +5.5 pts | +8.5 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hagworthingham | Conservative | +11.3 pts | +8.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Legbourne | Conservative | +5.7 pts | +8.5 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Horncastle | Independent | +3.3 pts | +5.4 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Mablethorpe | Independent | +7.5 pts | +5.4 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Horncastle | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | +0.3 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | INGOLDMELLS | Conservative | +7.7 pts | +8.5 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Mablethorpe | Conservative | +9.3 pts | +8.5 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Wainfleet | Labour | +6.2 pts | +6.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | St Margaret's | Conservative | +8.6 pts | +8.5 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2019 | CHAPEL ST. LEONARDS | Labour | +6.1 pts | +6.0 pts | +0.1 pts |